Polyester Filament Peak Season In September? Fourth Quarter FDY, DTY Has A Certain Risk Of Decline.

After the beginning of autumn, the temperature of the looms gradually cooled, and the loom rate increased slowly. The demand for polyester increased slightly. The long polyester analyst team visited the polyester filament production enterprises, bomb factories and downstream weaving enterprises in Tongxiang, Jiaxing, Changxin and Huzhou on the spot to investigate the market situation. The findings are as follows:

Polyester fiber varieties have different profit levels.

Since 2019, the profit level of semifinished FDY and DTY has been decreasing, and the profit level of POY has been increasing continuously since the first quarter. Especially since the three quarter, POY has maintained near 500 yuan / ton.

Figure 12018-2019 profit comparison of mainstream polyester filament models

Source: lung Chung

As shown above, there is a large difference in profit level between POY and FDY and DTY. Polyester varieties have higher profit levels for polyester filament, while POY has a relatively good profit level in polyester filament. In May, after the centralized sales promotion, polyester filament was in a state of slow inventory. In June, a few rounds of sales promotion led to the production and sale of polyester, and the production and sales of POY were the best. Therefore, the process of destocking was faster and the inventory dropped to a week. Although the stock was slightly improved in 7-8 months, the overall level remained at 3-5 days, and some models were in short supply, such as half light POY 75D/72F. In contrast, FDY and DTY have been in stock for more than a week, especially DTY stocks in half a month to 20 Yu Tian. The stock pressure is too large, and the price initiative is relatively weak. Therefore, the price of POY is relatively down, and the overall profit level is acceptable. And at present, POY overall momentum is relatively optimistic, the fourth quarter price or concussion is mainly, downlink space is limited, but FDY, DTY has a certain risk of decline.

As expected, the POY project is still in operation.

This year, direct spinning polyester filament production capacity has been expanding, but capacity growth is still less than the same period last year. Up to now, Jiangsu set up a new set of 100 thousand tons of cationic FDY and Fujian longitude and latitude 200 thousand tons of POY put into operation in March respectively. The Jiaxing Yaping two phase 250 thousand set of 250 thousand tons of equipment was put into operation in April. A new set of 300 thousand tons of new Feng Ming middle jump plant was put into operation in early July. A set of 300 thousand tons of equipment was set up in Tong Kun Heng bang, and the project of constant excellent 600 thousand tons was put into operation in mid and late 8, mainly producing POY. To sum up, in the first half of the year, FDY increased production capacity of 350 thousand tons and POY added capacity of 1 million 400 thousand tons.

Comparison of productivity of 22018-2019 year direct spinning polyester filament

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong's understanding, in the 9-10 month of this year, the annual output of Hengteng four phase is 300 thousand tons, the annual output of 300 thousand tons of new Feng Ming Zhong Yue two phase and the 250 thousand tons of Hengyi Haining project are planned to go into operation, with a total capacity of 850 thousand tons, mainly producing POY. In addition, Huabao chemical fiber, Shaoxing Heng Ming, Fujian hundred Hong, Sheng Hong, Tianlong new materials and so on have put into operation plan. In 2020, Jiaxing Yi Peng, new Feng Ming, Zhongyi, Hengli petrochemical, Nantong Hengke, Rong Sheng Shengyuan, Fujian Jinxing and Tong Kunheng super have all put into production plan, mainly based on POY and FDY.

Although the polyester market is expected to be cautious in the future, POY is still running well in the late stage.

Looms start to upgrade, demand orders have not improved significantly.

Since mid August, the starting rate of integrated looms has gradually increased to around 6. Among them, air-jet looms are relatively high in operation, and the level of commencement of circular machines is relatively low. However, the start-up rate of polyester varieties has always been high, so the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.

Fig. 22015-2019 comparison of start-up trend of polyester related varieties

Source: lung Chung

The weaving enterprises in Changxin have different situations. The larger weaving enterprises have a low inventory level, and have a higher purchasing desire for raw polyester. The general purchase volume is in the vicinity of half a month to a month. Most of them are equipped with bomb factories, and generally buy POY raw silk. However, the inventory of small and medium-sized weaving enterprises is more than 1-2 months, and the production enthusiasm is not high. But with the weather becoming cooler, the loom starts to increase operation load passively. If the loom is running at a low rate for a long time, it will increase the cost. On the other hand, the loom workers' salary is limited and the flow of personnel will be aggravated.

At present, most polyester factories, bomb adding enterprises, weaving industry, terminal home textiles and garment industry are slightly pessimistic about the fourth quarter's expectations. For polyester factories, the market will basically go into the state of waiting for holidays and maintain the rigid demand after preparing for the order of eleven, two or two. The profit level of the bomb and weaving enterprises is relatively low this year. It is expected that gold and silver ten will start to slow down after the fall. The factory will enter the finishing stage before the Spring Festival, and this year's Spring Festival will be ahead of schedule. Therefore, the polyester and downstream industries are expected to start the Spring Festival holiday after new year's day.