900 Billion Yuan Of Funds Have Been Released. What Will Be The Impact Of The Peak Season?

In September 6th, the central bank said that in order to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points in September 16, 2019. This time, the release of long-term funds will be about 900 billion yuan, of which 800 billion yuan will be released in a comprehensive manner, and the fund will be released about 100 billion yuan. Macro market continues to release good news, can it drive the current textile market?

The central bank works together.

It is understood that at the National Convention held in September 4th, the prime minister pointed out that in the future, China should "adhere to the prudent monetary policy and timely adjust the fine-tuning, accelerate the implementation of measures to lower the level of real interest rates, and timely apply the policy tools such as universal reduction and directional reduction."

The tight internal mobility node is also the reason why the central bank has decided to make a comprehensive reduction in the near future. It is understood that in the second half of the year, local debt maturity, financial contributions, the expiration of targeted tools and the maturity of the interbank deposit account for a relatively small overall liquidity pressure. The nodes with tight liquidity are expected to mature in June and August. Especially in June and August, it will be the highest and the highest point in 2019.

900 billion yuan is good, the capital market will benefit.

This fall is divided into comprehensive reduction and directional reduction, which will release long-term funds of about 900 billion yuan. Among them, the central bank will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions in September 16th by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies), and expects to release about 800 billion of the funds.

As for the additional reserve ratio of 1 percentage points for urban banks operating only in the provincial administrative region, it will be implemented two times in October 15th and November 15th, and the total liquidity will be released around 100 billion.

For this purpose, it will be good for commodities, stock markets and bond markets. After all, economic optimism will increase demand for commodities and increase in liquidity itself will usually bring prices up. Superposition will also further boost market sentiment. "It is estimated that the stock market and bond market will be stronger in the future".

This reduction will support the real economy, especially interest rate sensitive industries. And in the mood will significantly enhance market risk preference, is conducive to the promotion of the valuation of the stock market. As for the commodity market, the black that will be trapped in demand will be significantly boosted, and some of the colored varieties that remain at low levels will also be supported.

And precious metals in the early stage of risk factors in the push up at a high level, the recent fear of high fall. In terms of foreign exchange market, considering that the US dollar is still on the upswing in recent years, offshore renminbi has slowly recovered after hitting 7.19, and there is no further devaluation factor at present.

The central bank will enter a period of silence after the implementation of the RR, and observe the policy effect. If the market's risk aversion rises rapidly and the liquidity tightens again, the central bank will probably guide the market interest rate to ease the market by lowering the interest rates of SLF and MLF.

Can it drive the current textile market?

In the first week of September, the whole industry chain also showed signs of rebound.

Raw material prices rebound

This year, the mainstream products DTY, FDY, POY and so on have shown varying degrees of decline, even the oligopoly PTA is also in the low position this year. At present, the PTA processing difference is about 900-1000 yuan / ton, constant power 2 million 200 thousand tons maintenance and demand side production and sales rebound, supporting PTA price rise.

Polyester filament, after a long period of low production and marketing operation, this week downstream raw material procurement has improved, the average production and sales can exceed 100, production and sales on Thursday surged to 270%, the market trading atmosphere is better than the early stage, especially the FDY transaction performance is more prominent, the price is also steadily rising, which opened a good start for September.

Dye giant pull up quotes, dyeing factory orders are increasing

After six months of silence in the dye market, the news of price rise has also been reported this week: since September 3rd, the enforcement price of conventional dyes has been raised by 2000 yuan per ton, and the implementation price of reactive dyes has been raised by 1000 yuan / ton. It is understood that dyestuff has broken through the lowest price of dyestuff in recent two years. In 7 and August, the price of disperse dye black was 28-30 yuan / kg, and the price of reactive dye black was 23-24 yuan / kg.

The increase in dye prices in addition to environmental protection and rectification, resulting in reduced market supply, the 9 and October market expectations also contributed to the dye giants to increase their quotations.

The Sino US deficit is rising, and the order will continue to be issued.

Many textile bosses this year worry that orders may be transferred or cancelled in Sino US trade. Indeed, this year's foreign trade market "black swan" frequent flying, the market volume has decreased, but in late August, some enterprises' foreign trade orders are increasing.

Recently, the US Department of Commerce announced the US import and export data on goods and services in July. Data show that China is still the largest source of US trade deficit in July.

On the basis of the unadjusted basis, the trade deficit in the trade affected by the trade situation increased by 9.4% to 32 billion 800 million US dollars, the highest level since January. It can be seen that the United States still can not do without Chinese products, and the market demand still exists.

This will help to solve the financial problems of cotton and textile enterprises, and credit support will be increased. According to the survey, some textile enterprises are not as bad as the market reflects.

For the whole market, in 2019, many textile factories were losing money and failing to operate. However, many people neglect some of the manufacturers, but they are still making good progress.

Recently, JL, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces are mainly spinning market, and some enterprises have improved their orders. According to some manufacturers, although the recent orders have not been particularly improved, enterprises have already used low cost raw materials, and the yarn profit margins are still good. And some big factories have better operating efficiency and bring some impetus to the market.