Saudi Black Swan Event Triggering A Jump In PET Bottle Market

In September 14th, several UAVs attacked Saudi Arabia's oil facilities and another "black swan incident" took place. According to earlier media reports, the UAV attack led Saudi Arabia to shut down 5 million barrels per day of crude oil production capacity.

Before Saudi Arabia's new oil minister continued to cut production very well, US crude oil inventories declined and US oil drilling platforms continued to decrease. But when can the Saudi oil facilities resume and can the supply of crude oil meet the normal market demand? In the market outlook, --PTA futures opened sharply on Monday, but there was no expected opening. Most investors are cautious in their participation. Most of the market believes that there are two main aspects to curb PTA growth:

1. at present, PTA is in good supply and stocks are running low. And there are many sets of installations planned to be put into operation. For example, the Fujian Jialong 600 thousand ton PTA plant plans to resume operation in October, and the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant is planned to go into operation in October. Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 500 thousand tons PTA plant is scheduled to go into operation in October. Xinjiang Zhongtai 1 million 200 thousand PTA plant is scheduled to go into operation in December.

2. polyester construction continued to maintain a high level of 90.90%, followed by a limited increase. Polyester production base is 57 million 590 thousand tons, PTA daily demand is about 124 thousand and 300 tons. The capacity of PTA is 50 million 290 thousand tons, and the daily output is about 126 thousand tons.

The current demand for PET bottle chips showed a quarterly decrease, while the overall operation rate of bottle production enterprises was 82.11%, and domestic demand for new products was limited. But after two weeks, it is National Day holiday, and terminal consumption should be improved. Terminal beverage enterprises and bottle processing enterprises can meet the normal production, or replenish the goods, and the volume will not be too large. The demand side has a great impact on PET bottle market. Today, the factory price of bottle bottles rose by 150-300 yuan / ton. The traders in the middle of the market were conservative, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was not good. The downstream terminal has a strong wait-and-see mood and is observing the sustainability of this market. According to data from long Chung information, nearly 90% of the industry's producers are optimistic. Saudi Arabia's crude oil pattern needs to be resolved for a long time, and the PTA will inevitably rise with the increase in crude oil prices. Driven by the strong cost side, the price of bottle flakes tends to rise and fall. However, due to concerns about the reduction of terminal demand, the inflation continued or ended before the crude oil price. In the specific time, optimistic words or continue to the eve of national day. If the United States intervenes in advance, the market will only last for a week or so. Only about 10% of the producers and traders in the industry hold a neutral attitude. They believe that there will soon be other forces involved. The problem of crude oil can be solved very quickly. The bottle market will not buy the price rise due to the weakness of demand side.

To sum up, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the cost side is strong, which will certainly lead to the rise of the bottle film market, the increase in the vicinity of 150-300 yuan / ton. In the future, if the United States releases strategic reserves or inhibits the growth of crude oil. Considering the uncertainty of the crude oil market, the market timing of the market is still subject to market verification.