How Will The Trend Of Polyester Filament Be?

• In September 15th, the Saudi incident just happened, and polyester production and marketing came to 120%.
• In September 16th, international oil prices surged, and polyester production and sales rose to 270% at a time.
• In September 17th, polyester raw materials prices were at a high level, and polyester production and marketing dropped slightly.

• In September 18th, oil prices dropped, polyester raw material prices dropped, and polyester production and marketing was left with 30-40%.

• In September 19th, the market atmosphere remained weak, and production and marketing were weak, concentrated in the vicinity of 30%-40%.

This shows that this round of international oil prices rose sharply, real production and marketing "explosion" only one day in September 16th, then production and sales will soon fall.

Supply and demand fundamentals, there is still downward pressure.

In terms of demand, textile and garment is still the main force of polyester filament as a rigid demand. Home textiles still face certain downward pressure. If trade war moderates or further devaluation of the renminbi, it will stimulate export growth.

Therefore, on the basis of supply and demand, polyester filament is facing downward pressure, but the current high profit situation continues to the 4 quarter. During the year, 3 sets of new melt direct spinning polyester filament plant were put into operation, all of them were POY products, with a total capacity of 850 thousand tons / year. The new plant will be concentrated in the leading enterprises such as Tong Kun, Heng Yi and Xin Feng Ming. The impact on the market will not be obvious soon. After all, the impact on the market will be too fast.

The chain reaction promoted by cost side is short-term behavior.

Now, the most important aspect of the market is the recovery of Saudi oil production capacity.

However, market participants expect that the possibility of short-term recovery is not great; therefore, there are many uncertainties in crude oil, which may still support the high operation of crude oil prices. But from a fundamental point of view, market researchers can also find that most textile practitioners believe that the market of PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament is short-term. It is a chain reaction driven by cost side.

In the long run, the fundamentals of supply and demand remain the key.

In the long run, returning to the fundamentals, as far as the current market is concerned, both PTA factories and polyester factories are at a high level and the supply pressure is expected to increase.

On the PTA side, the overhaul of Dachang has not been implemented yet. The new supply capacity of the new Feng Ming, Hengli and Xinjiang Zhongtai industries is expected to increase or increase in the future. In the final analysis, the focus is still on the terminal market. If the downstream weaving and garment industry fails to improve in a timely manner, the demand side can not be improved, which naturally will have a restrictive effect on the polyester industry chain.

To sum up, at present, The downstream and terminal factories are well stocked earlier. At this stage, the wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and the trading atmosphere is light. 。

At present, the downstream replenishment and weaving factories continue to replenish the goods, polyester filament factory. The overall inventory level is low. Next week is approaching the National Day holiday. There are some holiday plans in some weaving factories. However, there is still a certain demand for rigid replenishment in the lower reaches of the festival. Therefore, next week, polyester filament will be showing a tendency of weakening finishing, but the overall decline will be relatively limited. Source: China silk capital network, long Zhong information.