Market Stalemate After Finishing The Saudi Incident PTA Fatigue Appearance

After the outbreak of Saudi Arabia, PTA rose only 3% compared with ethylene glycol. From this we can see that the PTA fundamental weakness appears.

Cost weakness downward:

With the PX price rose sharply, the PX- naphtha oil price difference was at a low of 270-280 US dollars. From the cost point of view, the supply and demand side of PX has not changed much. Hainan refinery is in the trial stage, or the product is coming out at the end of this month. Jinling Petrochemical plans to enter the inspection after the National Day holiday, and the PX operating rate is maintained near 85%. The change of PX price depends on the change of supply and demand. We should pay close attention to the operation of Zhejiang petrochemical.

Supply is at a high level:

Recently, Sichuan has been able to invest 1 million tons of chemical equipment and 900 thousand tons of PTA petrochemical plant has come out of the short stop news, but the disk price remains calm, in a weak shock pattern. At present, the PTA plant is relatively stable in operation and high in supply. And next week and after the national day, Sichuan's energy investment, Peng Wei and Jialong petrochemical installations will resume operation. However, the overhaul of the Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton plant has not yet been landed, and the market has news that the device will be overhauled after the National Day holiday. If the device is overhauled after the National Day holiday, the supply of the market is still high with the reboot of several sets of equipment, and the installation of the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand ton plant is expected to be put into operation. Therefore, the supply of PTA is high and low.

Demand keeps just enough:

The downstream polyester is still open and shut under the same demand, and the current operating rate is 88.78%. From the inventory point of view, POY stocks are mostly near 3-7 days; FDY stocks are mostly near 6-12 days; DTY stocks are mostly near 16-20 days. Polyester staple stock is in 0-3 days. The overall inventory decline is limited.

Terminal market loom overall boot rate 70.83%, 4.83% higher than the beginning of the month. According to market research, the overall market demand for loom loom in Shengze has been sluggish in recent years. Most of the downstream products are mainly stocked with rigid demand. But this week, the number of enquiry orders for differential orders increased. According to the sample of local enterprises, 3 of the enterprises in the vicinity plan to have 2-3 days of National Day holiday. There are still orders for enterprises in Guangdong, but there is no definite holiday plan for the national day. But there are also 2-5 days' holiday intentions. Some enterprises can have a holiday longer than they can do. Meanwhile, some large garment enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian are planning to have a National Day holiday, which is longer than 7 days. In Keqiao area, the opening rate of large circular machines is very serious. The average start-up time is about 7 percent. Orders this week are slightly warmer than those of last week, but orders are mostly small, urgent and differentiated products. The inventory of conventional breeds is limited. However, according to past experience, the demand for textile products will decline after the National Day holiday. Under the risk aversion mentality, most of the orders are mainly urgent orders, and there is no holiday plan for the enterprises with orders.

On the whole, PTA itself is running steadily, supply is high, and the demand for terminal market remains, but it is hard to support PTA price move up sharply. Therefore, short-term PTA prices are still in a weak state of stalemate.