Fundamentals Are Not Good, PET Fiber Short Shocks

According to the price data of business associations, the average factory price of 1.4D polyester staple in the whole country was 7702 yuan / ton as of September 23rd, rising 3.65%, or 271 yuan / ton, down 31.24%, or 3501 yuan / ton. The price of the mainstream factories is mostly around 7500-7800 yuan / ton. In September, the polyester and terminal terminals entered the traditional peak season. Demand was slightly warmer, but the order increment was not obvious. However, under the influence of Saudi oil incident, PTA rose sharply, and the quotation of polyester staple fiber manufacturers also increased slightly.

The international crude oil market showed a slight decline, crude oil futures price fell 0.12 to 64.28 U.S. dollars / barrel, WTI crude oil futures price fell 0.04 to 58.09 U.S. dollars / barrel. Saudi Arabia's two oil facilities encountered UAV attacks, resulting in 5 million 700 thousand barrels / Nissan to suspend production temporarily. It is reported that the comprehensive repair of the Saudi oil field under attack may take many months rather than 10 weeks. The situation may not be as optimistic as in public. Private Saudi Arabia is in urgent consultation about how to repair the damage. Saudi Arabia has now recovered half of its losses, and expects the remaining production to resume at the end of this month. Investors believe that despite the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, the early gains have been erased on the premise of adequate global supply.

Saudi Arabian official announced that the end of September could fully restore the crude oil production capacity that had been attacked and short, which made investors pessimistic about the shortage of oil supply greatly alleviated. In addition, the US weekly EIA data increased crude oil and refined oil storage, and the above factors will continue to exert pressure on international crude oil prices. In addition, there are also pessimistic news about Sino US trade. All kinds of news superimposed on crude oil prices.

01 the contract closed at 5142 last weekend, down 36 yuan / ton. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and marketing weekend is relatively flat 35%. Hua Bin Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand tons PTA plant plans to stop short in October; Han Bang Petrochemical 600 thousand ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled in October; Honggang Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand ton plant is planned for overhaul in October 14th; PWP 900 thousand ton plant and Chuan Ning Petrochemical 1 million T plant are scheduled for maintenance in the second half of September for 1 weeks. At present, the operation rate of PTA plant has dropped 4 points to 93.67%. The load rate of polyester operation in the lower reaches is 88.93%, which has dropped, and the production and marketing rate has increased to 50-90%. PTA demand side is still in the weak stage, the impact of the news is gradually digesting in the short term. After the early fall, the market is slightly tired, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and PTA is expected to be vulnerable in the late stage.

The average price of the downstream 32S yarn area is 14400 yuan / ton, down 9%, or 1425 yuan / ton, down 18.64%, or 3300 yuan / ton. The price of the middle end factory is about 13500-15000 yuan / ton, and the price of the high-end factory is between 15300-16000 yuan / ton. Despite the recent ten gold and silver nine, the cotton textile industry is hard to get up in the peak season. Since September, the textile market is still in the doldrums. In addition to some large scale enterprises, the vast majority of enterprises are still in negative production, and the price of yarn is not rising and falling.

Last week, crude oil was mainly due to the sharp fall in Saudi Arabia's problems, and the impact of geopolitical and Sino US trade problems. Crude oil prices were suppressed. PTA was pushed forward by cost push. At present, most of the devices are stopped and overhauled, and the operating rate is declining. The demand for downstream polyester is also in a state of weakness. The impact of favorable news is gradually weakening. PTA has fallen to the cost line. This week should be weak.