"Jin Nine Silver Ten" Is Coming To An End, Production And Marketing Is Low, Inventory Backlog, Can It Turn Over?

According to convention, the purchasing cycle of winter fabrics is gradually opened at the end of August each year. Therefore, the terminal demand increased from September to October, and the corresponding polyester filament production and sales showed a warming trend, and the price also went up. Therefore, 9-10 months are usually referred to as "golden nine silver ten", but in recent years, the trend of the peak season has become less obvious.

　　 Comparison of mainstream prices of polyester filament in 2017-2019 years

Polyester production and marketing is still in the doldrums, the focus of the transaction continued to decline.

The polyester filament Market in September showed an inverted "V" trend. Taking POY150D/48F as an example, the average price in September was 7755 yuan / ton, down 2.15% compared to the same period, down 34.52% from the same period last year. At the end of the month, the market atmosphere of polyester market was deserted, and the pressure of enterprise inventory was on the rise. Most of the shells and weaving enterprises also faced the dilemma of shrinking demand. In order to ease the pressure of supply, during the national day, they reduced the burden or avoided the risk of parking. Before the festival, polyester enterprises hoped to ease the inventory pressure through the promotion of profits, but the two wave of sales promotion had little effect, and polyester production and marketing remained depressed, and the focus of the transaction continued to fall.

　　 Trend of polyester filament production and marketing in 2019

During the national day, polyester filament production and marketing were in a doldrums. It was reported that the market was basically in a vacuum for the first three days before the National Day holiday. Holiday business inventories increased slightly, of which POY stocks increased by 2-4 days, and FDY inventories increased by 5-6 days. After the festival, polyester enterprises opened the sales promotion mode, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the lower reaches, and production and sales increased slightly in the day, with a high 300%-400%. However, there is no good prospect, and the demand and support are lacking.

Inventory backlog, shortage of funds, vicious circle of market

Production and sale is corresponding to the increase in inventory, as shown below, since September, polyester stocks continued to increase, and in October, inventory continued to accumulate. At present, POY stocks are mostly in 7-12 days, FDY stocks are more than 10-15 days, and DTY stocks are mostly 20-25 days. And the backlog of inventory will lead to a shortage of funds, and enterprises will be forced to offer incentives to return funds. The market is now in a vicious circle.

　　 Comparison of stock trend of polyester filament in 2019

According to some people in the industry, the purchase order in winter is coming to an end. Spring orders have been gradually opened, but polyester, weaving and grey fabric stocks are on the high side. There is a shortage of downstream funds and no mass purchase of raw materials. Therefore, many people feel that the market for polyester Market in October is not strong enough.

The market is good and the weaving market just needs to be underpinning.

In fact, for polyester manufacturers, the market is not so difficult. Although production and marketing are weak and inventory drops slowly, the downstream weaving market just needs to be preserved. According to incomplete statistics, the market rate of water injection and jet manufacturers basically concentrated in the vicinity of 8-9 percent. Warp knitting machine and circular machine market started around 7-8 percent. At the same time, the cost pressure and stock pressure of polyester factories increased, and there was little demand in the peak season.

In addition, the news of Sino US trade will be good for the market; there will be more disputes between the world's oil producing countries or the price of crude oil will be raised; and the situation of equipment maintenance will be complicated, and the price of polyester filament will not drop much later. Therefore, there are market participants believe that polyester filament or will close down the channel, spot trading may improve!