Acrylonitrile Bearish Sentiment Continued Weak Price Shocks

Although Anqing Petrochemical shut down production and maintenance in November, however, the market is watching the air atmosphere, and the business offer continues to be weak.

In November, Anqing Petrochemical 210 thousand tons of acrylonitrile plant shut down maintenance for 50 days, factory operation mentality stable, the beginning of the month offer more stability, but spot retail air bearish atmosphere continues, and the price is still low, business offer continues shock downstream. Up to now, the mainstream offer of Shandong acrylonitrile spot delivery price is 10500-10600 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the current supply and demand of acrylonitrile, the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant in Anqing petrochemical plant has been running smoothly, and the overall supply of the industry has decreased since last month, and the supply side has certain support. From the demand side, the Northeast polyacrylonitrile factory overhaul is finished, the acrylic fiber plant of Anqing petrochemical company has been overhauled at the same time, and the overall utilization rate of the overall capacity of the acrylic fiber industry is still relatively low. In terms of ABS, mainstream plant operation is stable and continues to buy acrylonitrile. As for the amide plant, the operation of various plant installations is basically stable. Although there is no obvious bad news on the demand side of acrylonitrile, it is undeniable that the demand for terminal products in November is expected to turn from being prosperous to light, with a cautious attitude of traders and a good supply of raw materials and acrylonitrile.

From the perspective of the future development of the whole industry, the acrylonitrile industry has heard of the capacity expansion plan. In the coming years, a large number of new installations such as Zhejiang petrochemical and Shandong Korul will be put into operation, and the supply of acrylonitrile industry is expected to increase significantly. From the demand side, although the expansion of ABS production capacity continues, the consumption of acrylonitrile products is low, so its consumption of acrylonitrile is still increasing slowly. Acrylic fiber consumption is higher than acrylonitrile consumption, but in recent years, the industry's own product structure adjustment is still imminent, the factory profit margins are narrow, and the industry capacity expansion has been heard. Although the development prospect of the amide industry is broad, and the development of water treatment and other fields has aroused widespread concern in the market, the industry itself has a low entry threshold, and some factories are facing many problems themselves, and the development of the industry is tortuous. Thus, acrylonitrile demand surface growth rate or less supply side, in the acrylonitrile industry into the capacity expansion period, the overall capacity utilization of the industry is expected to decline, the factory profits will be significantly squeezed.

Judging from the recent price of acrylonitrile industry, although the supply side has a small support, but the industry bearish sentiment continues, so it is expected that the short-term price will continue to slight weak shocks, and pay attention to the guidance of new factory news.