How To Treat The "Cut Down" Theory Of Processing Enterprises?

Since the launch of the new cotton market, the domestic cotton market has been affected by the Sino US trade negotiations and the decline of cotton production per unit area in Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has risen all the way, and the acquisition cost of cotton enterprises has shown a steady upward trend.

Recently, cotton production in southern Xinjiang, organized by the Zhengzhou commodity exchange and the China cotton storage information center, has been investigated and investigated in Korla, Luntai, Yuli County, Kuche - Sha Ya Al - Awati - Bachu - Mu Shu Ke and other cotton producing areas.

Overall situation:

1, yield per unit area: the cotton yield per unit area in the southern Xinjiang is mainly concentrated in Akesu and the surrounding areas, which is mainly affected by the low temperature and the excessive rain during the growth period, resulting in the decrease of the single boll weight. In Yuli County, Bazhou, due to the severe degree of disaster in the previous year, the yield per unit area increased year by year, while the annual output per unit area in other visited areas decreased to varying degrees. Cotton varieties selection and field management level were different, so the overall decline should be further verified.

2, the takeover: seed cotton purchase price generally increased by 0.5 yuan / kg compared with the previous stage. Most enterprises reflected the total amount of purchase declined year-on-year, and the acquisition progress was slow.

3, processing and sales: cotton is on the market late this year. During the National Day holiday, the progress of processing and warehousing is slow. Many enterprises carry out the hedging operation ahead of time, choose the futures delivery warehouse to make an appointment to complete the warehouse receipts, and sell less stock to the market. The new cotton quality index in 2019 decreased year by year, mainly reflected in the decline of length, high impurity content and high horse value. In some 2018, Chen cotton was selling faster because of its price and index advantage.

4, the situation of local textile enterprises: yarn inventory declined, orders improved in October September, but still worse than the same period last year. The proportion of cotton used in downstream weaving is decreasing.

How to deduce the future market depends on the downstream consumer market. The price rise can only be effectively supported by the downstream transmission. Otherwise, the "reduction of production" theory will only bring the roller coaster to the market.