Will Cotton Price Rise Continuously After Entering The Xinjiang Cotton Real Hammer? Sticky Short Progress, Will Fall Below 10000 Yuan Mark?

Market brief

　　鄭棉高位震蕩，小幅上漲，多頭減倉明顯，等待消息進一步指引，現貨市場成交略有好轉，現貨棉價繼續小幅上漲，市場心態有所好轉，新疆地區軋花企業，本年度加工機采棉占比增加，隨著籽棉采收進入尾聲，疆內軋花廠主要工作轉向加工，目前疆內皮棉主要以點價、套保、現貨出售等方式進行購銷，收儲傳聞影響，軋花廠對后市持樂觀預期，皮棉挺價情緒升溫，加上加工成本高位，多上調皮棉報價，但下游紡織企業隨采隨用，觀望氣氛濃厚，總體來說，持棉企業對后市預期偏樂觀，但下游棉紡企業運行壓力不減，短期對棉花采購維持謹慎態度，購銷雙方仍存博弈，短期來看，成本對于棉價的支撐較強，14號晚間國家糧食和物資儲備局和財政部正式發布國儲棉輪入新疆棉的公告，預計棉價將大幅上漲，關注上漲行情的持續性。

The price of acrylonitrile continued to be weak, and some factory quotas continued to decline. Sporadic high and low end quotations were heard, the terminal sales were slack, the downstream industries were generally running, the demand for acrylonitrile was limited, the demand for commodities was maintained, the market trading atmosphere was still warm, and the mainstream factories had no inventory pressure. However, the market retail spot price was approaching the cost line of the factory, and the manufacturers' mentality was cautious. Acrylic fiber prices remain stable, the market atmosphere is relatively calm, the overall price of acrylic fiber is stable, demand is flat, no bright products appear, downstream cotton mills rely on a small number of orders to maintain production, and the lack of enthusiasm for downstream goods, coupled with the price of raw materials, acrylonitrile prices narrowing down, the market bearish atmosphere maintained, although the acrylic fiber factory has a certain profit margin, but the production and marketing rhythm is slow, the actual operation of the factory is generally, the manufacturers' trading enthusiasm is limited, the short term continues to focus on the trend of acrylonitrile, and the price of acrylic fiber is expected to remain stable.

According to the data released by China's cotton notarization inspection network, as at 24 o'clock in November 12, 2019, 861 cotton processing enterprises in the whole year of 2019 cotton processed cotton according to the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, and carried out notarization inspection. The inspection volume reached 8070584 packages and 1 million 823 thousand and 103 tons. Among them: Xinjiang: 767 processing enterprises, notarization inspection of 7919156 packages, 1 million 789 thousand and 47 tons. Mainland: 94 processing enterprises, notarization inspection of 151428 packages, 34 thousand and 56 tons.

In November 14th, 64 thousand and 200 tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 60 thousand and 700 tons per day in the same period last year. As at 24 o'clock in November 11th, Xinjiang processed 2 million 253 thousand and 100 tons, down 2.24% from 2 million 304 thousand and 600 tons in the same period last year. At present, the average daily processing volume is less than that of the same period last year, and the cumulative processing volume is lower than that of the same period last year. As of November 11th, the total volume of inspection in Xinjiang amounted to 1 million 731 thousand and 900 tons. In November, the amount of lint processing, warehousing and public inspection increased gradually in Kashi, Korla and other regions in the southern Xinjiang (the horse value was concentrated in 4.5-5.0). Due to the lack of effective procurement of cotton textile enterprises within and outside of Xinjiang, cotton processing enterprises adopted three methods, namely, "point price" sales, hedging and spot sales. Up to now, there is little pressure on the sale of lint and the recovery of money from the cotton ginning plant in southern Xinjiang. Traders' "spot price" procurement is in full swing. Some cotton processing enterprises are selling high quality lint "direct price" to traders in order to speed up the acquisition of acquisition funds, expand the purchase amount of seed cotton and reduce operational risks.

According to statistics, the export value of textile yarn, fabrics and products at Xinjiang port in 2019 1-10 yuan was 4 billion 859 million yuan, a decrease of 12.92% compared with the same period last year. The export amount of clothing and accessories was 26 billion 439 million yuan, an increase of 17.77% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-10, the import value of cotton at Xinjiang port was 1 billion 334 million yuan, an increase of 32.08% over the same period last year. The total import of textile yarn, fabrics and products was 203 million yuan, an increase of 40.64% over the same period last year. The import value of textile machinery and parts was 566 million yuan, a decrease of 55.30% over the same period last year.

In November 12th, the China Textile Industry Federation Standardization Technical Committee plant dyeing standardization working group was set up and the Chinese plant dyed (grass and dyeing) industry alliance 2019 annual meeting was held in Changshu, Jiangsu. The conference held a summary and analysis of the experience and opportunities, contradictions and shortcomings in the development of the plant dyeing industry. It witnessed the establishment of the Standardization Working Group on plant dyeing of the China Textile Industry Federation Standardization Technical Committee, explored new ideas for the development of China's plant dyeing industry, defined new directions, planned new tasks, injected new impetus, and carried out the new orientation of "science, technology, fashion and green" industry, and steadily promoted the high quality development of China's textile and garment industry to a new level and provided strong support.

The nineteenth Shanghai International Textile Industry Exhibition (SHANGHAITEX 2019) will be held in Shanghai New International Expo Center (Pudong) on November 25, 2019, ~11 28. The exhibition area will be over 100 thousand square meters. The 9 exhibition hall will gather more than 1200 exhibitors at home and abroad. It will showcase a series of intelligent textile machinery and innovative environmental protection materials, help the industry practice the production scheme of environmental friendly textiles, and work hand in hand towards "sustainable fashion". The theme of this exhibition is "Zhihui textile leads to a better life". In addition to showing the top scientific and technological achievements of the global textile industry, it will also focus on launching the "Textech Galaxy spinning Galaxy" equal period activities, focusing on the new field of textile fashion: artificial intelligence, wearable technology and start-ups. Through the exhibition, forums, competitions and business matching, we should explore frontier innovative technologies, build bridges for textile, fashion and technology industries, and jointly explore the endless possibilities of textiles and inspire the future.

Australian cotton association has confirmed that due to long-term drought, 2019/20 cotton production in Australia is expected to be only 750 thousand packages (163 thousand tons), just 16% years ago, the lowest level in recent ten years. Australian cotton association CEO Adam Kay said that the drought in the main cotton producing area of eastern Australia is extremely serious, and no remedy can be of any help. The beginning of the rainy season was bad this year, and rainfall only occurred in a few areas. Because of the lack of water in the soil, it is impossible for the dry land to sow. The meteorological department predicts that this year's drought will last until mid summer and miss the important period of cotton preparation. Adam Kay said that although the Australian cotton planting is still in the window period, if there is no rain in the next few months, cotton farmers will face an embarrassing situation with no water available.

According to customs statistics, China's cotton imports in September were 83 thousand tons, down 9.3% from the previous month, representing a 35.7% decline compared with the previous year. Among them, Australia cotton, American cotton and Brazil cotton still rank the top three cotton imports in China. Compared to August, the number of imported Australian cotton in September was 41 thousand tons, an increase of about 7 thousand tons. It basically occupied half of the total cotton imports in September, while the number of imported cotton and Brazil cotton declined. From the feedback of foreign businessmen, importers and textile mills in October, Brazil cotton, which was highly regarded by the Brazil government and exporters, although its overall export performance was strong (in October, the export volume of cotton in Brazil reached 273400 tons, an increase of 68% over the previous year, reaching a record high). However, the number of contracts, shipments and exports to China failed to meet expectations. Some institutions and cotton companies have decided that in October, China's imports of cotton will still be Australia cotton, American cotton and Brazil cotton, and Brazil cotton will be short term "superior".

Pakistan's "forum express" 14 reported that Pakistani Prime Minister business consultant d'urd said at the opening ceremony of the thirty-fifth World Fashion Federation world fashion conference that the second phase of the Sino Pakistani FTA is about to take effect, which will provide a rare opportunity for Pakistan's clothing industry to export to China. To increase exports is one of the core of Pakistan's economic policies, and Pakistan will promote economic development by expanding exports and overcoming trade and current account deficits, he said. After the second phase of the China Pakistan FTA, all major export products, especially textile products, will become easier to enter the Chinese market. China Textile Corporation is exploring opportunities for cooperation in textile fields in Lahore and in the case of Fei SAR, and has established branches in some areas. Da also said that with the strong support of the government, Pakistan garment industry continued to develop and exports steadily increased. The Ba garment industry is strengthening R & D and production of high value-added products.