To Meet The Expectations, The Polyester Filament Market Has Been Steadily Rising, But Behind It Is "Surging Undercurrent".

In November 20th, the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was significantly improved, mainly due to the anticipation of the polyester manufacturers' rising expectations. The downstream weaving and the purchasing action of the bomb manufacturers increased significantly. According to statistics, the production and marketing of polyester mainstream plants climbed to 140%-150%, which is the only hundred times in recent months.

Polyester market is not only mainstream production and marketing to improve, upstream oil noodles also come to a rebound, strong news of the strong rise!

It is understood that Russia will continue to cooperate with OPEC to reduce production news, easing the market's oversupply of oil worries; in addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report that last week, the US crude oil inventories grew less than expected, the US oil futures delivery area Cushing crude oil inventories dropped by nearly 2 million 300 thousand barrels, the biggest decline since August 23rd.

Stimulated by a series of good news, the international crude oil futures prices surged vigorously on the 20 day. At the end of 20, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in December up 1.9 US dollars, closing at 57.11 US dollars per barrel, or 3.44%. In January 2020, the London Brent crude oil futures rose 1.49 US dollars, closing at 62.40 US dollars per barrel, or 2.45%.

The price of polyester filament has risen.

On the 21 day, the polyester filament market showed a steady rise, and the quotations of mainstream manufacturers increased. For example, the price of polyester in Tongxiang market is up by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester in another factory in Tongxiang has increased by 50-100 yuan / ton; the price of FDY products in Shaoxing factory has been raised by 50-100 yuan / ton, and another factory in Shaoxing has risen 50-100 yuan / ton; the price of polyester in Xiaoshan factory has increased 100 yuan / ton, and the price of FDY in Wujiang factory has risen 50-100 yuan / ton.

All of this looks beautiful, but behind it is the "surging tide". The key nodes in the polyester filament market are still focused on the fluctuation of downstream demand.

Weaving production enthusiasm or will gradually reduce

Although according to the data of China silk net, at present, the starting rate of textile industry cluster is stable. It is understood that the average loom rate of looms in Shengze is concentrated in the vicinity of 8-9, and the water looms in Changxin are maintained at 7-8. The opening rate of warp knitting in Changshu and Haining is around 8-9, and the opening rate of the Shaw machine is about 5-6.

However, from the following point of view, due to the difficulty of large scale improvement in textile market, the pressure of weaving factories is generally larger than that of inventory. At present, the inventory of grey fabric in Shengze is still more than 37 days; and with the end of autumn and winter clothing fabrics, the enthusiasm of manufacturers will gradually decrease.

"Although the follow up orders are not connected in time, we still have to ensure that the factory starts. If the order is still insufficient, it will be a continuous overstock of grey cloth inventory". A major business in Shengze market is the down garment and casual wear fabric manufacturer. In this regard, most textile manufacturers have the same feeling. Although the market can maintain a steady start now, in addition to part of the demand for production factors, there are still some cost pressures to retain workers and reduce rent.

In the face of today's less ideal textile market, most textile manufacturers will choose "safe" production. The so-called safety is mainly about the safety of stock and the safety of operation. In this case, the more the future, the manufacturer's enthusiasm for production will gradually decrease.

According to past practice, during the Spring Festival, the order of weaving, printing, dyeing and finishing is generally the first thing to stop production and leave. The weaving factory basically has a month or so of reduction during the new year. Now, most of the weaving manufacturers may choose to stop production before the Spring Festival, so as to ease the inventory pressure. Of course, this also means to a certain extent, reduce the procurement demand for raw materials.

On the other hand, when the prices were good in the past years, weaving factories would have some raw materials to store up goods before the year, so as to prevent the price rising of raw materials after the beginning of the year. But now that this kind of capital withdrawal is relatively difficult, most of the weaving factories have significantly reduced their willingness to hoard goods in bulk years ago, and are more cautious about raw material procurement.

"Small batch, multi batch" orders affect the raw material surface.

From this year's fabric market orders, there is a very obvious feature, that is, "single species, mass" fabric orders are relatively scarce, mostly "small batch, multiple batches" orders dominate. This change in the order pattern reflects the gradual increase of fabric products in the weaving end, resulting in a relatively slow sales of conventional products, a reduction in demand, and a reduction in the demand for stock for a single variety, with a significant increase in the type of fabric that the manufacturer needs to produce.

Of course, the fabric products of fixed fabrics need not only to change their weaving methods, but also to raise higher requirements for the raw materials. Therefore, the demand for raw materials for the raw materials procurement has declined, and the varieties of raw materials have increased accordingly.

From another perspective, innovation has shifted from fabric end to raw material side. In particular, the weaving factories of the production market, because of the uncertain trend of fashion and fashion in spring and summer, the varieties of fabrics will change at any time, so most of them will not be willing to put a lot of raw materials into stock and inventory of grey cloth before the year.

After all, the trend of fashion is changing too fast now. The "explosion" of market goods usually does not have any symptoms. It is difficult to pre control and blindly stock up, which may cause inventory pressure. For example, some imitation silk manufacturers blindly stock over a million meters for a single product, and have not been completed for sale all year round. This year, T400 products, which were suddenly exceptionally hot, some printing and dyeing factories produced nearly two hundred cylinders overnight. In this case, the demand of the weaving manufacturer for raw material products is naturally adjusted.

Therefore, in the case of single volume reduction and lack of stamina in the weaving Market, the market will be ahead of schedule.