MSCI Third Expansion Of Landing: 21 Billion 400 Million North To Raise Funds To Raise Foreign Capital Quietly Adjust The Consumer Stocks.

At the end of November 26th, in the last five minutes before the third expansion of MSCI, the impulse of the northern capital remained unchanged. In just three minutes, buying 35 billion yuan chips and setting a peak of net inflow of 52 billion 800 million yuan that day, there was a more than 30 billion yuan in the end.

Even so, the net inflow of northbound capital still reached 21 billion 429 million yuan on that day, surpassing 17 billion 300 million yuan in November 2, 2018, refreshing the largest single daily net turnover in history.

Although the expansion of the first time the central shares, but from 26 days after trading data, large consumption is still the main source of north to buy money, GREE electric appliances, China Ping An, Wuliangye received a net purchase of 609 million yuan, 603 million yuan and 563 million yuan, ranking the day of funds into the top three.

Recently, a number of foreign organizations accepted the exclusive interview with this newspaper. They also mentioned the allocation of domestic consumer stocks as the focal point. For example, Peter Harrison, chief executive officer of Schroder investment group, pointed out that "at present, the Chinese stocks we sell are more consumer stocks."

However, after the expansion of MSCI and other indices in 2019, only the third step of the first phase of the FTSE Russell index was left in March 2020.

"Domestic capital is mainly stock based. Foreign investment coming in during the year is incremental, which is the impact on A shares from 0 to 1, which is significantly larger than that of the original domestic incremental funds from 3 to 4, so the consumption share favored by foreign investors has increased significantly during the year." Chiang Kai song, the capital of investment in tracking the external market, said on the 26 day that "if the pace of foreign capital entering next year slows down, the marginal effect of stimulating consumer stocks will be weakened."

Throw everyday consumption, buy optional consumption.

Plus, in November 26th, the expansion of A shares in MSCI can be divided into three stages, the first stage is from May 28th to August 27th, the second stage is August 27th to November 26th, and the third stage is after November 26th.

In terms of the capital inflow in the north, the second phase of the capital inflow is obviously higher than the first stage. According to statistics, from August 27th to November 26th, the cumulative net buying of the northern capital increased by 158 billion 643 million yuan, significantly higher than the 45 billion 658 million yuan from May 28th to August 26th.

The gap is so large that the key lies in the landing of several large indexes in September this year. In addition to the second expansion of MSCI after the close of August 27th, A shares were included in the first stage second stage of the FTSE Russell index and entered into the S & P Dow Jones index before the opening of September 23rd this year.

From the perspective of foreign chip changes, the first phase of the north capital increase is still more obvious than that of the consumer industry. During the same period, the proportion of Wind daily consumption of land shares to the circulation stock market increased from 5% to 5.44%, while Wind optional consumption rose from 3.8% to 4.16%, significantly higher than that of financial and energy sectors.

However, along with the second stage Guizhou Moutai and other super consumer stocks continue to rise, North intervention in the fund slowed down.

According to weekly statistics, from August 30th to November 22nd, the proportion of Wind daily consumption of land stocks to circulation stock market increased from only 5.5% to 5.78%, while Wind consumption increased from 4.23% to 4.8%.

In the same period, the land stocks were significantly increased, as well as the Wind material industry (1.37% to 1.85%) and Telecommunications (2.49 to 2.86%).

It is not difficult to see that during the second expansion of the MSCI, although the total position of the north capital is increasing, it is quietly changing the warehouse position to replace the daily consumption and the bottom up optional consumption.

The change of QFII and RQFII is more obvious, and there is a significant reduction in consumer stocks.

Data show that in May 28th, the proportion of QFII/RQFII holdings in Wind's optional consumption and daily consumption accounted for 0.67% and 0.55% respectively, and in November 26th, the two data fell to 0.59% and 0.16% respectively.

Although the 26 day expansion of MSCI came into effect, the amount of funds bought from north end of the late stage was still dominated by GREE electric and other consumer stocks. However, the stock market of Lu stock has been on a "high level" trend.

"Foreign capital has become the most important incremental capital for A shares during the year. Domestic institutions are following suit, coupled with the slowdown in macroeconomic growth. The two tier market is also more inclined to a safer plate, which further strengthens the effect of consumer stocks holding together for heating during the year." Jiang Jingsong said.

He believes that part of the liquor stocks and pork stocks increased by more than 150% during the year, and the factors of profit growth in the next few years will be digested. "After foreign capital reduction, it will cause the group to follow suit and make profits. Recently, many high level pharmaceutical stocks have plunged suddenly."

North capital monopolized Wuliangye more than half of the deal

After intensive expansion in the index year, such as MSCI and FTSE Russell, foreign capital represented by north capital has become a force that A shares can not ignore.

First look at the proportion of positions. As of November 26th, the total net purchase of the northern capital amounted to 915 billion 652 million yuan, and the free market value of A shares was 22 trillion and 800 billion yuan on that day, which included a large number of relatively stable industrial capital holdings.

In contrast, the implementation of specific companies will be more obvious.

Take Wuliangye, which was suddenly pulled up on the 26 day, for example, circulation of A shares, 3 billion 796 million shares, Yibin state-owned assets management company, Wuliangye group, certification fund and Huijin share 2 billion 261 million shares. After excluding the "real" stocks with liquidity, they are 1 billion 535 million shares, of which 294 million shares are held in north capital, accounting for 19.15%.

Even with individual node time, the northbound capital will become the absolute dominant of such consumer stocks. On the 26 day, Wuliangye made a turnover of 2 billion 247 million yuan a day, and the total amount of sales to the North was 1 billion 605 million yuan on that day, accounting for 71.43%.

On the other regular trading days, the proportion of one-day turnover of north to capital accounts for about 20%, for example, 20% in October 24th and 29.16% in November 11th.

Such a scale of transactions and positions occupy a smaller proportion of the capital allocation in the latter part of the north. In terms of share prices, the shareholding of Wuliangye in the latter half of the year has picked up slightly but failed to break through the March 1st high.

By contrast, the third stage of MSCI expansion will reduce the intensity of foreign investment in A shares in the second stage.

This trend will last until at least 2020. There will be no definite information about the expansion of other international indexes except the A's inclusion factor of FTSE in March next year. At that time, consumer stocks, which are guided by foreign investment and resonate with domestic institutions, will appear to be cooling down. 25%

"Short term consumer stocks are affected by the profit margins of the institutions, and there has been a phased rise. Although there are some uncertainties in the pace of expansion of foreign investment next year, the excellent target for next year will still be the first choice for long-term capital market entry. Yang Peiwen, director of private equity and government assets, said 16.