At The End Of The Supply Period, The High Price Of Acrylonitrile Is Still Speculation.

In the last week of November, the acrylonitrile declines were reversed, and the spot price in the spot market had reached 11800 yuan / ton as of 28. At the beginning of the week, the price was still lingering 10500 yuan / ton. The trigger of the market reversal comes from the extension of the maintenance time of Anqing petrochemical company. The planned December 10th will be postponed to the end of December, and the specific restart time can not be determined. At the beginning of the week, most customers in East China indicated that there was a big gap in the supply contract of Sinopec East China next month. On Tuesday, the final bid for Fushun Petrochemical competition increased to 1600 yuan / ton on the basis of settlement, further aggravating the market panic atmosphere.

Apart from subsequent supply, there is no surplus stock available in the acrylonitrile market. As the industry generally takes a short look at the market outlook, the number of middlemen planned for this month has been sold out in advance, resulting in a few days at the end of the month and no goods can be sold. Therefore, acrylonitrile supply is expected to be out of the gap period, and the gap is mainly concentrated in the East China market, including a large number of acrylamide factories, all need to replenish raw materials in the spot market, thereby stimulating market prices to rise.

However, despite the fact that there is a high price transaction, the volume of trading is limited due to the fact that there is not much volume in the field. In addition, before the news is clear, there is a lot of artificial speculation in the current high price, which is difficult to represent the current actual market level. In addition, another factor contributing to such tight supply is the problem of overall resource structure and allocation, which now takes time to resolve.

Before Anqing Petrochemical restart time is clear, it is expected that market supply tensions will continue and acrylonitrile prices will remain stable and strong. In the long run, after the recovery of Anqing petrochemical supply, there is no room for further growth in downstream demand. At present, the ABS industry has started to reach 95%, and acrylamide started nearly 70%, which is at a relatively high level in history. Acrylic fiber industry because of weak terminal demand, the start is always below 70%, and the market outlook is difficult to upgrade. Therefore, the future situation of excess supply of acrylonitrile is still unavoidable, which will suppress the price rebound of acrylonitrile from the mentality. It is expected that the price increase and duration of acrylonitrile will be limited, and the rate will probably fall again after mid December.