Capacity Expansion, Cost Collapse, And Insufficient Demand For Polyester Filament Will Be Hard To Say Next Year.

In December 3rd, the production and marketing of polyester mainstream plants climbed to 120%-130%, and some of the higher production and sales reached 200% and 250%.

In December 4th, polyester production and sales declined significantly, only around 4-6.

Polyester filament production and marketing again staged "one day tour" market.

Polyester filament as raw material of textile market, this year has experienced a "hard hit", profit loss is difficult to reverse, price chopping is more common, how a "miserable" word is...

Although this is only the beginning of December, it seems that the end of this year's textile market can be predicted.

In the early December, the filament of polyester filament used to be infinite in the past years.

From the price point of view, the prices of polyester filament products in 2017 and 2018 were all high, and the rate of decline was not large. But by 2019, the prices of polyester filament products dropped significantly, with a drop of over 13%.

From the profit point of view, the profits of polyester filament products are all high in 2017, and by this year, the profits of various products have shrunk to varying degrees, especially the FDY products, which have been in a state of deficit since October and the losses have been expanding.

At present, polyester filament is "falling into a trough", and its decline is nothing more than the polyester filament itself capacity, cost end PTA and downstream weaving needs have changed.

Capacity expansion of polyester filament

In recent years, the production of polyester filament in China has maintained a rapid growth. In 2019, the production capacity of polyester filament in China increased by about 3 million 840 thousand tons, and the growth rate was about 9.75%.

This year, starting from September, the production of polyester filament increased rapidly, the output growth in September was around 15.7%, the output growth in October was around 17.8%, and the output growth in November was around 13.6%. In the first half of the year, the load of polyester filament was basically around 75%, and after entering September, the polyester filament manufacturers began to increase their load. Up to now, the load of polyester filament has been around 82.7%. Capacity increased and load increased, polyester filament pressure mountain.

Cost side PTA collapse

PTA performed well in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, PTA continued to decline. The futures market even broke 4700 points. With the continuous fluctuation of the futures market, the price of the internal market continued to decline. So far, the price of the PTA internal market is only around 4750 yuan / ton. As the "King" of the industrial chain, PTA once ate a majority of the cake. Its profit reached the peak of 1787 yuan / ton in July this year, but at present, PTA profit is a loss.

The decline of PTA is also due to the continuous expansion of its capacity. By the end of October, the commissioning of the new 2 million 200 thousand PTA PTA device once again raised the market's concern over the oversupply of PTA. Moreover, 2020~2021 will usher in the peak of PTA production in China in the year of 2020~2021. It is expected to total 14 million 400 thousand tons / year, accounting for about 29% of the capacity at the end of the year. The expanding supply side makes the price of PTA difficult to climb, and the cost of PET filament ends.

Insufficient demand for weaving Market

The consequences of overcapacity caused the weaving factories to suffer a lot this year, with high inventories, shrinking profits, weak demand, frequent production cuts, shutdowns and failures. Until nine and October, although the market was getting warmer, it still had little effect. The purchase of polyester filament was basically a replenishment. So far, at the end of the year, the order of weaving enterprises has basically come to an end. Looms begin to make inventory, and the receivables are not fully recovered at present. Under the pressure of funds, the demand for polyester filament is not strong.

But according to the custom before the Spring Festival every year, weaving enterprises must have a wave of hoarding operations for polyester filament. But given the uncertainty of the market this year and the trend of next year, it is expected that the volume of hoarding will not be larger than in previous years.

PTA can not give the bottom of the polyester filament cost. The weaving enterprises can not support the demand side of polyester filament. There is a reason why the polyester filament market can not be strong this year. At the recent stage, the tension between China and the United States as the biggest negative factor this year has further increased. Next year, the market is hard to say.