The Spring Festival Stocking Market Opens Up The Anticipation Of Polyester Filament.

In the past week after December, a sudden wave of production and marketing "heat wave", 200%, 180%, 150%... It seems that the recent cold polyester market has been injected with "Silk warmth".

Who made the polyester market fluctuate?

As far as polyester filament is concerned, Xiaobian believes that the main impetus to boost the market's recent warmer prices comes from the promotion of the polyester factory's efforts to promote sales reduction.

From the current polyester Market overhaul, starting last week, polyester factory overhaul will gradually increase. Recently, some polyester filament and polyester staple devices such as Yizheng chemical fiber and Ningbo Quan Di have entered the maintenance phase. Later period, especially from late December to January, the polyester plant has a larger maintenance plan, such as Fujian's 100 Hong, Fujian Jinxing, Xiamen Xiang Lu, Taicang Shen Jiu, Taicang Changle and other sets of polyester plant Spring Festival parking repair plan has been promulgated, when the polyester industry starts will be substantially reduced, and the market supply will inevitably be weakened.

Since entering the December, in a few trading days, chemical fiber manufacturers will have certain concessions from time to time, and there will be more negotiating concessions in actual transactions. This has boosted the polyester market to a certain extent, resulting in production and sales exceeding 100 days.

Another factor came from December 5th. OPEC will hold a meeting in Vienna, Austria, to discuss the issue of oil production reduction. On December 5th, the WTI crude oil futures for January 2020 delivery rose 4.15% to 58.43 dollars / barrel, while the February 2020 Brent crude oil futures rose 3.58%, closing at 63 U.S. dollars / barrel. On Friday night in Beijing, OPEC+ officially announced that it will cut output by 500 thousand barrels per day in the first quarter of next year to help avoid oversupply and support oil prices in the first quarter of 2020.

After the announcement, the two oil rose more than 2%, further extending the previous rally.

Crude oil is the raw material of polyester products. Its fluctuation easily causes price changes of various products in the polyester industry chain. The current round of OPEC meeting delivered a reduction in production expectations, boosted international oil prices, but also to the polyester market a needle "strong heart."

Of course, it also comes from the need for replenishment at the lower reaches of the market. Since the beginning of this year, the market has been keeping the raw materials with low inventory, and now it has reached a new round of replenishment nodes. According to the weaving Market, most of the weaving factories are already in a low raw material inventory within 10 days.

By the end of the year, the weaving stock market has become an important driving force for the polyester market.

As the end of the year draws near, stocking becomes the focus of attention. Since this year, overcapacity has affected the trend of polyester, and downstream weaving enterprises are also eyeing the price of polyester. Everyone is wondering, what kind of response will the downstream weaving enterprises have before the festival? What is the mentality of weaving enterprises at present?

For weaving enterprises, raw material prices account for a large part of the cost of products, which is one of the most important factors that affect the price and profit of grey fabrics. Therefore, textile people will be extremely sensitive to changes in the prices of raw materials. At present, the views of weaving enterprises on polyester are generally not clear.

1, three years low price let some weaving factories heart: after the beginning of the year is hundreds of thousands of profits!

Since the beginning of this year, the market price of polyester filament has been running low, especially at the recent stage. The price of conventional raw materials is not only the lowest in this year, but also the lowest price in recent three years. So low prices, there are different degrees of transaction concessions, so that many of the weaving bosses are heartbroken.

"Buy, now the price of raw materials, we must take the opportunity to buy the bottom, we are now full of machines in the factory, the regular raw materials are also just needed, just now take advantage of the low price, more good part of the raw material is not lost." Mr. Xu, the owner of nearly three hundred looms, said excitedly, and counted up with Xiaobian.

If the price of the current FDY 150D is 7000 yuan per ton, if the price rises to 7500 yuan / ton after the year, it is only around October this year. The price is not high at all. The increase is also 500 yuan / ton, but according to the 500 ton raw material, it is equivalent to 250 thousand yuan.

In fact, in the recent market, there is no lack of weaving boss like Mr. Xu, who share the same idea. On the one hand, the price of raw materials is actually at a low price level; on the other hand, in the case of profit loss, polyester manufacturers will inevitably try to control inventory to stabilize prices or pull up prices, and it is impossible to keep falling.

If we take advantage of the low price of raw materials and boldly collect hundreds of tons of raw materials, we will not only make money for raw materials, but also make money for the production of orders after the price increase.

2, no money and no courage to purchase raw materials! Last year, tens of thousands of lessons were not enough?

Chen manager, who has been weaving for more than ten years in Shengze, is very depressed about the stockpiling of raw materials. In the first two years, the textile market is quite good, and the conventional fabrics are generally sold well. Under the circumstances of sufficient funds and the anticipation of the raw materials coming up after the year, Chen manager resolutely hoarding raw materials for more than a month before the Spring Festival last year.

It never occurred to me that shortly after the start of the year, the expected price increase of raw materials not only did not appear, but the price dropped instead of falling. Coupled with the unsalable sales of conventional fabrics this year, the volume and price are falling. Therefore, even if the raw material prices are low in the current year, Chen said that before the Spring Festival this year, raw materials will not be stored up. The factory plans to stop production and holiday after new year's day. This month, it is mostly purchased on demand, which can guarantee normal production with the purchase.

Like Chen manager, there are not many of the weaving masters who are not prepared to purchase raw materials in large quantities before the Spring Festival. Some of them may have been hurt by hoarding goods, like Chen manager, and some textile bosses believe that it is not easy for the polyester manufacturers to reduce their inventories many years ago. After the festival, they will still be faced with the pressure of inventory, and the price is unlikely to increase substantially. Of course, there are also some of the weaving boss, is really forced, gray inventory backlog, resulting in poor capital operation, no money and no courage to purchase raw materials.

Polyester market is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, but may be limited.

On the eve of the Spring Festival every year, the downstream weaving mills will purchase materials more or less to make up their stocks after the withdrawal of funds. In addition to the production of part of the actual orders, these stockings reflect more managers' expectations for the future market. Some people joked that this is the boss of a weaving factory deliberately storing goods in factories in order to stabilize people's hearts, so that workers can rest assured that there will be work to do next year. Personally, I think this is not unreasonable. After all, the most troublesome problem for factories is not the high cost of manpower, but the instability of manpower.

Traditionally, there will be a wave of traditional stockpile tradition in the early spring festival. From 2015 to now, the price change data of polyester filament seem to verify this trend. That is, after the new year's Eve, the price of polyester will increase.

But this year, since the impact of polyester extreme market this year, the price of raw materials has dropped sharply in Waterloo, plus the expected downward trend in the macro-economic situation and the repeated return of Sino US trade frictions, resulting in a more pessimistic mentality among the middle and lower reaches of manufacturers in the coming year. Less preparation before the festival, late commencement of work after the holidays and early leave are the general expectations of the Spring Festival.

At the same time, there are variables in upstream raw materials. In addition, polyester enterprises are also in high position due to start-up and pre demand inventory, which will have a greater impact on the later stage. Therefore, the demand market for polyester market will arrive in the following years, but it may be limited. (source: JOYOU information, cloth factory, network)