In December 13th, the long-awaited Sino US economic and trade consultations made progress. China's statement on the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States shows that After the joint efforts of the economic and trade teams of China and the United States, on the basis of equality and mutual respect, the two sides have reached agreement on the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States.
Many people in the industry interviewed Xinhua 15 days ago, China and the United States agreed on the first stage economic and trade agreement and released positive signals to the outside world, which is conducive to Promoting Sino US economic and trade cooperation. The risk of uncertainty in the market is convergent, and it is good for the economic and world economies of China and the United States. Agreement on "core concerns" tariff
At the press conference held in the evening of December 13th, the Information Office of the State Council, Liao Min, deputy director of the office of the central finance and Economic Commission and vice minister of Finance Responding to media reporters' questions, The abolition of tariffs is China's core concern in economic and trade negotiations, and the two sides have reached agreement on this issue. Liao Min said, As the two sides reached the first stage agreement, the US side has promised to cancel part of the tariffs imposed on China and impose tariffs, and will increase the tariff exemption for China's US products, and promote the trend of tariff increase from a rising trend to a downward trend. "This is a promise, yes," 。
In December 12th, the United States Trade Representative Office (USTR) announced the Sixth Batch of products under the list of $200 billion plus tariff products. This exclude a total of 44 products, including 3 textile and clothing products. Up to now, the United States has issued 6 batches of 200 billion product exclusion lists, of which first batches involve 2 textile and garment products tax numbers, second batches involving 3 textile and garment products tax labels, third batches of 7 textile and garment products tax labels, fourth batches of 3 textile and garment products tax numbers, and fifth products excluding textile and clothing products, and a total of 7 textile and clothing products tax numbers. The excluded products will no longer be subject to a 301 tariff when they export to the United States. Exclusion period can be traced back to the date of entry into force of the 200 billion list - September 24, 2018. The validity of the excluded products listed in this notice is from September 24, 2018 to August 7, 2020. Exclude list of $200 billion tax products Summary of textile and clothing product exclusion
In December 16th, in order to implement the Sino US consultation on economic and trade issues recently, according to the laws and regulations of the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, the People's Republic of China foreign trade law, the People's Republic of China import and export tariff Ordinance, and the basic principles of international law, The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to suspend tariffs on imports of cars and parts originating in the United States without levying tariffs of 10% or 5% on imports of goods originating in the United States originally planned for 12 hours and 01 minutes in December 15th. In addition to the above measures, other tariff measures for us and Canada continue to be implemented according to the regulations, and the elimination of tariff commodities in the US and Canada continues.
Uncertainty risk drop, good textile
"This means that as the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States can gradually resolve economic and trade differences and expand consensus through dialogue and negotiation, which is conducive to boosting confidence in China's economic development, and also conducive to the US economy, and is also good for the world economy." Liu Qiao, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Say. Ma Jun, member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank and researcher of the National Finance Research Institute of Tsinghua University China and the United States agreed on the first stage economic and trade agreement. One of its positive significance is to avoid the economic impact of both sides. It provides the foundation for the relative stable development of the two countries next year, and also reduces the uncertainty faced by the global economy. "The decline in uncertainty can help boost confidence in consumers in both China and the world as well as investors." Ma Jun believed that This is also conducive to the implementation of macro policies in China, which is conducive to the stability of the macro leverage ratio. The information released by the agreement is also consistent with the general direction of China's reform and opening up. The increase in tariffs will definitely play a positive role in the export restoration of domestic and foreign trade enterprises. Come from Hengrun, general manager of Jiangsu Import & Export Co., Ltd., Yu Min Told reporters The first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States has given enterprises more confidence to move forward, and a series of arrangements to promote high-quality development has also given impetus to the development of enterprises. "We hope that the good momentum will continue, so that the development of foreign trade and manufacturing enterprises will be more promising." In the traditional textile industry, Hengrun began to adjust the industrial structure and layout in the international market as early as 2013. "This is not only the diversification of enterprises, but also the transformation and upgrading of industries. Yu Min said that for enterprises, the key now is to be calm and do their job well. stay Cheng Dawei, Professor of economics, Renmin University of China It seems that the two sides agree on the text of the first stage economic and trade agreement. The agreement is a win-win for both China and the United States, proving the natural attribute of trade reciprocity.
How about the foreign trade of textiles and garments in China?
Over the past year, Sino US economic and trade frictions have had a relatively big impact on global economic growth and global capital markets. It also has a certain impact on China's import and export market. Judging from the latest data, In October 2019, China's textile and clothing trade volume was US $24 billion 810 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, of which exports were US $22 billion 870 million, a decrease of 1.2%, and imports of US $1 billion 940 million, down 6%.
In the 1~10 months of 2019, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was 245 billion 330 million US dollars, down 3% from the same period last year. Of which, exports amounted to 224 billion 870 million US dollars, down by 2.7%; imports of US $20 billion 460 million, down 0.7%, and the cumulative trade surplus of US $204 billion 410 million, down 2.2%. Textile exports rebounded and clothing declined. After two consecutive months of decline, textile exports rebounded in October, and exports increased by 4.5% and 4% respectively over the same month. The growth rate of fabrics and finished products was 6.1% and 4% respectively. Clothing exports fell by 5.3%, and the decline also narrowed compared with the previous two months. In 1~10 months, the total export volume of textiles increased by 0.4%, of which 1.4% and 0.2% of fabrics and finished goods were up, and the yarn decreased by 3.2%. Clothing decreased by 4.9%, of which the total export volume of needle woven garments decreased by 3.4%, and the export average price dropped by 2.4%.
Exports of key provinces and cities are showing signs of recovery. In October, the top five export provinces and cities showed signs of warming except Guangdong. The exports of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Fujian respectively increased by 2% to 10%, while Shandong decreased by 6%. In 1~10 months, the growth rate of Zhejiang and Fujian in the top five provinces and cities increased by 0.7% and 5.2% respectively. The export of Hunan in Central China has maintained a high growth rate, and the total export growth has reached 71%.
It is expected to drop slightly in the whole year. In the 1~3 quarter of 2019, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 2.2%, 2.8% and 3.2%, respectively, with a gradual decline. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, although exports did not stop in October, the decline was narrowed by 1.2% compared with the previous two months.
Sino US trade frictions and tariffs have seriously affected the import and export trade of China's textiles and clothing. Since the tax increase on clothing and home textile products in September 15th, the 9~10 exports to the two categories of products have decreased by 6.5% and 4.2% on average, respectively, of which the average export to the US has decreased by 20.5% and 6.2% respectively. In December 15th, if the 4B products in Schedule 4 were on schedule tax increases (some of them still involve some clothing and home textiles), it would lead to a further acceleration of my export to the US. But because it is at the end of the year, it will not have a significant impact on the export of the whole year. At present, Sino US economic and trade frictions have entered a period of rest again, and the trade war situation has eased slightly, which is conducive to stabilizing export confidence.
At the same time, the market share of the ASEAN market and the "one belt and one way" countries in our exports has increased year by year. The relatively good market environment and growing demand have kept steady growth in exports to these regions, and promoted the overall export to a certain level.
The General Administration of Customs announced that the export volume of textile and clothing decreased by 4.3% in November compared with the same period last year. According to the current data projections, if there are no other outbreaks before the end of the year, it is expected that the annual export will drop slightly, with a drop of about 3%, better than expected. For the European Union: there was a continuous decline in March. The EU market did not show any signs of improvement, and exports to the EU continued to decline for 8~10 consecutive months. It dropped by 4.2% in October, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous two months. In 1~10 months, exports to the EU totaled 39 billion 500 million US dollars, down 5.4%. Among them, clothing decreased by 7.2%, and the total export volume of needle woven garments of large categories decreased by 4.4%, and the export unit price dropped by 3.8%. According to the EU customs statistics, in the 1~9 month of 2019, the European Union imported 104 billion 540 million dollars from the world's textile and clothing products, down 0.8%. Among them, imports from China amounted to 33 billion 910 million US dollars, down 1.6%. Imports from ASEAN and Bangladesh increased by 3.7% and 3.5% respectively. The share of Chinese products in the EU market is 32.4%.
For the United States, the largest drop in tariffs is the effect. Affected by tariffs on clothing and home textiles, exports to the US fell by more than 10% in 9 and 10 months. In September, it fell by 20%, down by 16.8% in October. Textiles and clothing decreased by 11.4% and 19% respectively.
In 1~10 months, I exported $38 billion 900 million to the US, down 5.7%. The largest drop in the four major markets. Among them, textiles decreased by 6.6%, clothing decreased by 5.3%, and household textiles increased by 3.3%. In the 1~10 month of 2019, the United States imported 105 billion 330 million dollars from the world's total textile products, an increase of 1.4%, of which 35 billion 140 million was imported from China, a decrease of 6.1%. Imports from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh increased by 8.3%, 4.7% and 9.2% respectively. The proportion of Chinese products in the US market is 33.4%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2018.
ASEAN: export volume hit a new high. In October, the ASEAN market was outstanding, and exports to ASEAN amounted to US $3 billion 620 million in that month, a record high in the year, up 8.7% from the same period last year. The main growth commodities were concentrated in textile yarns, fabrics and finished goods, with an increase of 10.6%, 11.9% and 26.4% respectively. In 1~10 months, the total export volume to ASEAN was 31 billion 470 million US dollars, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the major categories of commodity yarn and fabric increased by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, and the export of needle woven garments decreased by 7.1%.
For Japan: continued decline is not yet in transit. The Japanese market remains unchanged. Exports to Japan fell by 7.2% in October, the second only to the US. Total exports to Japan fell by 5.45% in 1~10 months, slightly better than in the United States. Exports of textiles and clothing decreased by 1.9% and 6.4% respectively. The export volume of needle woven garments of large categories decreased by 7.5%, and the export average price increased by 1.5%. According to Japanese customs statistics, imports of textiles and clothing in Japan in 2019 were 32 billion 700 million US dollars, down 1.1%, of which 18 billion 150 million from China's imports, 5.5%, and 5.9% from ASEAN. The proportion of China's product market dropped to 55.5%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2018.
The "one belt and one road" country: continuous growth. In 9~10 months, the export of the countries along the "belt and road" continued to grow. The growth rate in October was 10.3%, and the share of total exports in that month rose to 38.9%. In 1~10 months, the total export to the "one belt and one way" country was 79 billion 560 million US dollars, an increase of 1%, accounting for 35.4%.
Textile slowed down and clothing continued to grow. In October, imports of textiles and clothing continued to decline, but the decline was less than 1, which was significantly narrowed compared with the previous two months. Among them, the textile industry dropped by 12% and got rid of the two digit decline. Clothing resumed growth for second consecutive months, an increase of 6.4% in that month. In 1~10 months, the total import of textiles decreased by 13%, of which yarn, fabric and finished goods decreased by 15%, 14.3% and 7% respectively. The total import of clothing increased by 7.1%, of which the import of needle woven garments decreased by 0.8%, and the import average price increased by 8.1%.
The import volume of cotton has reached a new low, and domestic and foreign cotton prices are rising. Cotton imports continued to fall sharply, and import volume hit a new low in October. Only 73 thousand tons of cotton were imported in that month, down 32.4% and 12% respectively. In 1~10 months, the total import volume of 1 million 592 thousand tons increased by 30.1%. The average import price was 1960 US dollars / ton, down 2.7%. Among them, 320 thousand tons from the United States, down 34.8%, continue to lag behind Brazil and Australia. According to the monthly report of China Cotton Association, in October, cotton picking processing in the whole country entered the peak season. The meteorological conditions were suitable for picking, and the output forecast was consistent with that of the previous period. Textile market is recovering, but demand has not improved significantly. Sino US trade consultation has progressed smoothly and market confidence has been slightly improved. China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output will be 5 million 905 thousand and 700 tons, down 3.35% compared with the same period last year, and cotton consumption will be 8 million 20 thousand tons, down 0.6% from the same period last year, the same as that of the previous period. The price of cotton both inside and outside is showing an upward trend, and the increase of foreign cotton is larger than domestic price.
