Can The Canadian Geese Carry The Winter 13%?

When a brand becomes "phenomenal", its scrutiny is omni-directional and magnified to every pore.
According to fashion business news, D.A. Davidson, the analysis agency, warned in a recent report that the price of the jacket of the luxury feather brand Canada Goose Canada geese has dropped by an average of 13% in the current quarter, almost two times that of last year's 7%.
Analyst John Morris said the Canada Goose and Abercrombie&Fitch price cuts were the largest among the 18 retail brands he had tracked, and the decline of Canada Goose was weakening the scarcity and integrity of the brand.
Retail industry experts believe that the price reduction is mainly attributed to the decline in the volume of high-end department stores and the advocacy of animal protectionism. Craig Johnson, a retail expert at Customer Growth Partners, said that the inventory of Canada Canada in high-end shopping centers such as Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale exceeded the sales volume.
In response, a spokesman for the Canada Goose denied that he said that retailers' Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus retailers had failed in network evidence search, and stressed that Canadian geese are not a promotional brand, and they will maintain consistent pricing through specific distribution channels in different countries.
Affected by this news, Canada Goose closed down 2.06% yesterday. The market is on the alert whether they have been worried about whether or not it has happened. According to the fashion business express data, Canadian geese sales increased by 25% to 156 million 200 thousand Canadian dollars in the fourth quarter ended March 31st, while in the same period of 2018 fiscal year, the Group recorded an explosion of 144.3% under the help of stores and online business expansion, the slowest sales growth of 8 geese in 8 years.
In fact, since November Canada Goose released its latest earnings report, the word "inventory" has frequently appeared in the company's discussions. In the second quarter of September 29th, Canada Goose rose 27.7% to 294 million Canadian dollars, much higher than analysts expected $267 million 300 thousand.
However, the share price of Canada Goose fell 10.84% after the earnings announcement. The reason is that the company's inventory size and the disadvantages of its wholesale business are exposed.
Although the earnings report showed that the wholesale business revenue increased by 22.2% to $219 million 800 thousand in the second quarter, thanks to the increase in orders for coat and jacket. Retail and online business revenue rose 47% to $74 million 200 thousand respectively.
But this is mainly because the company shipped to the channel ahead of time, overdrawn the wholesale revenue in the next quarter, will affect the wholesale expectations in the next quarter. The chief executive, Dani Reiss, also warned that because of the fact that the delivery time of the brand Parker coats and jackets was earlier than usual, the wholesale business revenue in the third quarter would be reduced by about 15%.
It is particularly necessary to note that Canada Goose's inventory turnover has also reached a record high of 248 days. This shows that Canada Goose is constrained by the seasonal limitations of down jacket. Canada Goose takes the function of cold resistance as the core, and the product is relatively simple, and does not lay out the product matrix of multiple levels and seasons.
Compared with the largest competitor and Italy luxury feather down brand Moncler, Canada Goose's product popularity and diversity are in a weak position. Therefore, Canada Goose is stocked for the third quarter, the winter down sale season.
But too long inventory turnover days increase the risk of enterprise operation. Long term high inventory and low turnover impedes Canada Goose to enhance operational efficiency.
Jonathan Sinclair, chief financial officer of Canada Goose, has also taken precautionary measures for the market. He said that although Canada Goose had strong performance in the first half of fiscal year, the trend may not last until the second half of the year.
In addition, as the performance of US retail stores continues to deteriorate, or the order volume will be reduced, this is bad news for Canada Goose, which has a large wholesale network, and the brand performance will suffer.
In addition to the external factors of American retail department's decline, Canada Goose avoided talking about the gradual decline of consumer enthusiasm, which became the key to the oversupply of its products.
Thinknum reporter Joshua Fruhlinger believes that early data have shown that Canada Goose myth has failed. He cited Thinknum Alternative Data's tracking survey data over the past three years. Since the winter of 2016, the number of commentary on Canada Goose's official website has been growing between December and April.
Between 2016 and 2017, the commentary grew by 1600, but in 2018, the number dropped to around 1400. At present, though it is still in the early stage of the main selling period in 2019, data show that the growth of the official website commentary may be slower this winter. From this, he thinks, the Canada Goose official website that never discounts grows or becomes increasingly limited to winter sales.
Thinknum data tracking showed slower growth in canadian goose brand official website reviews.
Of course, Canada Goose has more than 4000 retail outlets worldwide. According to local weather conditions and brand awareness, brand pricing, sales and growth stages vary greatly.
Analysts headed by Robert Ohmes believe that Canada Goose is at an early stage of growth in China, one of the world's largest luxury goods markets. Brand expansion in China continues to exceed expectations, demand is still "significantly" higher than supply, Canada Goose is expected to easily exceed this year's goal.
Up to now, the Canada Goose Tmall flagship store has 850 thousand fans, and the top three products of the down jacket list are priced between 8500 yuan and 10000 yuan, with sales volume of 112, 290 and 186 per month, showing a good performance in luxury goods.
In addition to Beijing and Hongkong, Canada Goose, which has established regional headquarters in Shanghai, has recently opened a direct store in Shanghai IFC and Shenyang. The brand plans to open another three stores in fiscal year 2020.
But this year, the progress of Canada Goose is obviously more and more external constraints. Warm winter has become the biggest worry of down clothing category.
Affected by the weather, the November sales of Qidu Japan, which was the best seller in winter, dropped by nearly 6%. In Shanghai, where the highest temperature reached 20 degrees this week, the Canada Goose is proud of its almost functional failure.
In the long run, the prospect of Canada Goose in counterbalancing the seasons is still uncertain. In the south of Shanghai, Canada Goose faces more complicated problems. The Hongkong market, which was first explored by the brand, has fallen into a rapid recession because of its non resistable factors. It accounts for 2 of the 20 direct outlets around the world in Hongkong.
CEO Dani Reiss admitted in a conference call after the second quarter earnings report that the deterioration of the retail environment in Hongkong has had an impact on the brand performance. In the future, corresponding actions will be taken according to the new assessment results, such as renegotiating with the landlord.
After the initial freshness faded, Canada Goose had to start facing the two magic charm of the brand. One is the confrontation between the above and the seasonal nature of down products, the second is the double moral accusation brought about by the use of fur and luxury attributes.
Now open the Canada Goose foreign official website and social media account, people will hardly see a pike coat with decorative edges on the front page. But the Parker coats, adorned with Coyote fur, have always been the iconic products of the brand.
As Canada Goose describes in the official website, the Canada Goose jacket is filled with "one of the best natural insulators in the world". The product is carefully designed and manufactured to prevent the most coldest place on the planet, that is, areas immediately exposed to skin damage. In this extremely cold environment, Canada Goose thinks fur is the best choice. Dressing around the jacket hat helps to disrupt the airflow and protect the face from frostbite.
The company insists that all animals have been treated humanely. They are committed to purchasing and responsibly using all animal materials in the product in a moral way. They do not tolerate any intentional maltreatment or malicious malpractices caused by animals. However, when the relevant organizations studied their actual production process, they found that the coyote fur used on the hat usually came from the trap, which involved a trap trap, which made the animals starve to death after being arrested for several days.
Canada Goose's pursuit of functionality is in conflict with the demands of society for animal protection.
In August this year, animal protection organization PETA announced on the official website that after the organization complained to the Federal Trade Commission FTC, Canada Goose removed the official website's moral statement on animal purchases, and no longer used the word "guarantee" to commit its suppliers to not abuse animals.
The New York Post quoted sources as saying that Canada Goose is trying to give up fur, such as wolf hair, which is related to the upcoming fur ban and California consumers' aversion to fur in California and the United States.
However, the canadian goose subsequently denied that the video and moral statements were taken down because of the forced action taken on the FTC investigation, and stressed that FTC's investigation did not reach any conclusion, so any reversal of the video and moral statement was irresponsible.
In October this year, California became the first state in the United States to ban fur sales. Many luxury brands including Chanel, Gucci and Prada have renounced the use of fur.
Canada Goose's most important wholesale channels, such as Messi's department store and Bloomingdales department store, also announced that they would stop selling fur products before 2021. Obviously, Canada Goose is playing a disadvantageous role in the increasingly clear macro trend of sustainable development.
Last month, star Kate Upton was criticized on the Instagram for praising Canada Goose. Some users commented that Canada Goose was actually killing animals for fashion. The brand stores in London, England, are being disturbed by PETA protests all year round. The police have to send police to maintain order so as to ensure that the consumers who need it can go shopping.
In response, a spokesman for Canada Goose said that despite the brand's respect for their opinions and protest rights, their extreme and unforgivable actions have seriously damaged the brand image and interests.
But Canada Goose maintains a tough attitude under the great pressure of animal protection organizations, but it is certain that change is taking place.
New products such as Sanford, Macmillan and Bennett are roughly the same as those used in the past, but only the coyote fur decorations are missing. It is reported that the company has reduced its purchase of Coyote leather since it became the focus of FTC's attention.
The chief product officer, Lee Turlington, attributed this to the attempt to expand the brand of coat. He said that product diversity will be part of the Canada Goose growth strategy, which is more important than classic jacket products. In the first quarter, the brand included the category of non coats of sweaters, which created 1/3 of its revenue. Product diversification has helped the brand raise its overall income.
On the other hand, Canada Goose has long been a social phenomenon. Though Italy's Moncler pioneered luxury feather down, the Canada Goose was criticized for its high price.
The reason is that the former has been classified into luxury fashion category through fashion cooperation and Moncler Genius. The brand premium has been recognized, while the Canada Goose, which is featured by single function and single product design, has not yet been widely recognized as a luxury item. Therefore, the premium of its brand is unstable, which is more likely to lead to the sale price reduction.
For many people, Canada Goose indirectly sells the sense of belonging to the elite by designing a single attribute similar to "uniforms", making it a wealth display to wear their coats, which is most obvious in rich young people in North America and Asia.
In the eyes of critics, it is the performance of unthinking consumerism culture and herd mentality, encouraging people to disseminate elite images at the expense of cruelty to animals, which will aggravate the psychological comparison of teenagers. Last year, the Woodchurch high school in the north of England issued the latest policy, requiring students to ban high-end winter coats such as Moncler or Canada Goose.
Principal Rebekah Phillips explained that this is to eliminate the pressure faced by poorer students. He believes that these coats, which cost up to $1200, have led to many inequalities among students and humiliated the economically difficult students and their parents, almost to the monthly rent of many poor students.
Canada Goose is obviously not the fast food marketing brand produced by those social media era. For a brand that has been grinding out outstanding products through nearly 50 years' history and focusing on technology to meet consumers' demand for cold demand, the cheers and disputes surrounding them suddenly come.
The blame is not that Canada Goose is not an excellent company on its track, but from a "phenomenal" brand. A "phenomenal" listed company has commercial and social significance, which corresponds to more heavy growth tasks and social responsibilities. And from the harsh scrutiny of the parties, the "brand" has finally become a classic that can not be defeated.
Judging from the recent brand trend of Canada Goose, the Canadian brand has revealed an optimistic signal from the consumer Carnival returning to the essence of rationality. It is trying to tell a story about a cold polar brand.
Not long ago, Canada Goose opened a new "zero inventory" experiential retail concept store in CF Sherway Gardens, Toronto, Canada. The concept store was named "The Journey". Consumers can immerse themselves in the ice and snow scene of simulated icing and snow, as well as outdoor cold scents, and scenes suitable for releasing social media.
The store can buy all brands of merchandise at any time with the help of shopping consultants. In the newly opened Shanghai store, the brand also set up "snow house" The Cold Room, making Chinese consumers, like Canadian consumers, experience extreme cold temperatures below 25 degrees Celsius.
Selling cold is probably a good idea for Canada Goose. Although not everyone wants to go to Antarctica and Iceland, there are always people willing to pay for this story when global travel is getting popular and climate is abnormal.