International Vision: The Prospects For The Global Economy Are Unclear. How About The Cotton Textile Industry In Vietnam?

 

According to the Vietnam textile and Apparel Association, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in 2018 were 36 billion US dollars, up 16% over the same period last year, and the planned export volume in 2019 was 40 billion US dollars, up 11% over the same period last year.

 

The current Sino US trade dispute provides Vietnam with an opportunity to expand its clothing exports to the United States. As the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese clothing, some overseas orders went from China to Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam. The United States is the largest buyer of Vietnamese clothing, accounting for more than 35% of Vietnam's clothing exports. In 2018, Vietnam's clothing exports to the United States were close to US $14 billion, an increase of 12% over the same period last year, and this trend was maintained in 2019, 1-2.

 

The CPTPP agreement, which began in January 14, 2019, is expected to stimulate the export of textiles and clothing in Vietnam. However, strict regulations on the origin of yarns are a great challenge for Vietnam because the raw materials of Vietnam's clothing production are not CPTPP countries, especially China. However, CPTPP may help Vietnam attract more foreign direct investment.

 

In June 2019, the European Union and Vietnam signed a free trade agreement, which is a new opportunity for Vietnam to promote textile and clothing exports. The European Union is one of the largest buyers of Vietnamese clothing, accounting for 15% of Vietnam's clothing exports. In 2018, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports to the EU grew by 10.5% over the same period last year. After the implementation of the agreement, tariffs on Vietnamese clothing exports to the EU will drop by 12%.

 

However, Vietnam's textile and garment industry may face other adjustments because the free trade agreements require stringent requirements for origin and increase production costs. At the same time, Vietnam textile mills are also facing fluctuations in cotton and cotton yarn prices and export demand due to the decline in trade war brought challenges. Cotton prices rose steadily in most of 2018 and reached the highest level in 2018, 7-10. Over the same period, the price of yarn exported from Vietnam to China has gradually declined, and the profit of textile mills is very small. When the price difference is less than 1 US dollars per kilogram, the textile mill will lose money.

 

In 2018, Vietnam's cotton yarn exports to China increased by 3% over the same period last year, and increased by 19% in the 1-8 months of 2019, but most of the growth came from the textile enterprises invested by China and Taiwan, China. Although the number of these enterprises is not large, the output of the spindle spindle accounts for nearly half of the total output of Vietnam. Because the yarn produced by these mills is mainly supplied to the parent companies in China, they are not sensitive to the fluctuation of yarn prices.

 

Vietnam's local cotton mills are paying close attention to the current Sino US trade disputes. The sharp rise in the minimum wage and electricity charges since the beginning of 2019 has brought great pressure to the cotton mills, and also has a serious impact on yarn production, which may weaken the export competitiveness of Vietnamese cotton yarn. In 2019, Vietnam's exports of cotton yarn were expected to increase. The export volume of 1-10 months was 1 million 400 thousand tons, an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year, but the export volume increased by only 3.6%. This shows that the current price decline has made it difficult for the cotton mill to survive. At present, China, Korea and Turkey are the largest buyers of Vietnamese cotton yarn, accounting for more than 80% of Vietnam's cotton yarn exports. The decline in the Turkey and Korean markets is offset by the increasing demand in the Chinese market.

 

According to Vietnamese customs data, Vietnam's cotton imports in 2018/19 were 1 million 510 thousand tons, unchanged from the same period last year. 2019/20 is estimated to be 1 million 570 thousand tons. The main sources of imports are the United States, India, Brazil, Australia and Cote d'Ivoire, which account for 70-80% of total cotton imports in Vietnam. In 2019/20, Vietnam's imports of US cotton are expected to reach 870 thousand tons, up 5% over the same period last year.

 

Driven by the export of cotton yarn, Vietnam's cotton consumption continues to grow. Of the imported cotton in Vietnam, 80% are exported after cotton yarn and the rest are digested in China. Vietnam's cotton consumption is heavily dependent on China's demand for cotton yarn. In 2019, the export volume of Vietnamese cotton yarn to China was estimated to be 800 thousand tons, accounting for 80% of all cotton yarn exports. Therefore, China's cotton and cotton yarn policy will have a huge impact on Vietnam's cotton yarn production and export. The current Sino US trade friction has a serious impact on Vietnam's spinning industry. In 2018/19, Vietnamese cotton yarn consumption is expected to be 1 million 510 thousand tons, and 2019/20 is expected to be 1 million 570 thousand tons.