Escalation Of Tension In The Middle East! What Is The Impact On The A Share Market? Expert Analysis Came.

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, global oil prices continued to soar today. Brent crude oil intraday exceeded $70 mark, an increase of over 2%, a nearly 8 month high. New York crude oil rose 1.8%, breaking through 64 dollars. Domestic, Shanghai crude oil futures, fuel futures opened today after the whole line rose, the main oil trading center trading, reported 502 yuan, for the first time since May 2019. The main fuel market has risen by more than 7%.

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the Gulf stock market fell in the afternoon on the afternoon of 5, the Kuwait index fell nearly 4.1%, Saudi Arabia's stock market fell 2.2%, and the UAE stock market fell 3.1%. Shortly after the launch, Saudi Aramco shares fell 1.7% to a new low of IPO.

What is the impact of the escalation of the tension in the Middle East on the A share market?

Wu Xuan, chief market analyst for debbond fund It is believed that the short term impact on the A share market is more obvious. However, after the A shares have fluctuated, they will continue to pay attention to the reform of the domestic capital market, including the expectation of liquidity. The improvement of internal factors and economic fundamentals will support the performance of A shares at the beginning of the year. Considering the influence of the relevant plates, taking into account the market risk preference and the impulse effect of emergencies, the role of the defense industry, oil and gold sector will continue to push up. At present, the trend of short-term international oil price increase is more obvious.

Financial commentator Hou Jie Think:

The first black swan in 2020 was absolutely perfect. It will have a significant impact on the global political structure and the regional situation. The chaos in the Middle East will also bring great uncertainty to the global economy.

First of all, it will have a significant impact on the production and transportation of world crude oil. The Gulf region has concentrated on the world's major oil producing countries. If the situation in the US and Iraq deteriorates further, it will affect the production of crude oil in the Gulf countries. At the same time, Iran controls the main transport channel of the Strait of Hormuz. Once the situation is further expanded and the transport corridor of the Gulf crude oil is interrupted, the global crude oil prices will further soar. The production of non OPEC crude producers will be released and the economic situation will be reversed. The energy cost of the major oil importing countries will increase and the economy will be dragged down. From the perspective of futures market, the futures prices of crude oil and related alternative energy will continue to rise.

Second, from the perspective of global hedge funds, gold as a top hedge tool has broken through 1550 US dollars to a new high of six and a half months. Although the technical side is facing the pressure of callback, geopolitical uncertainty will bring enough hedge funds to the yellow gold market from a fundamental perspective. At the same time, as another major hedge tool, the trend of the yen will also be directly affected by the progress of events.

Third, from the global stock market, the US stock market will inevitably increase more uncertainty with the progress of the US Iraq conflict, and the market funds will inevitably leave the field. As a member of NATO, once the conflict intensifies, the capital market will also be in the same frequency with the US stock market. Besides global investment in gold and yen, global funds will also flow to the stable Asia Pacific market.

Fourth, this event once again sounded the alarm for energy security for us. As a large energy demand country, energy self sufficiency and energy security play a very important role. Energy exploration, mining and alternative energy will become the focus of investment.