PTA Gap Between Supply And Demand To Expand The Market Before The Spring Festival Passive Stalemate
Since entering the January, although PTA has been affected by the relationship between the United States and Iran, the price has been rising. However, the ideal situation of "New Year's new atmosphere" has not been able to continue. At present, the stock of polyester plant is relatively healthy, and the tradition of stocking up before the end of the year is still in existence. However, the downward trend of downstream start-up is still unchanged, and the demand and supply balance is weakening, and the balance between supply and demand of PTA is expanding obviously.
surface 12020 year One Month forecast PTA Maintenance losses
Unit: 10000 tons
Enterprise name | capacity | repair time | Planned restart time | One Monthly maintenance days | Amount of loss |
Jialong Petrochemical Company | Sixty | Eight Parking on 2 August | Restart time to be determined | Thirty-one | Five point three one |
Yangzi Petrochemical | Thirty-five | Twelve Parking on 12 August | Restart time to be determined | Thirty-one | Three point one zero |
Three lane | One hundred and twenty | Twelve Parking on 20 August | One Restart near 4 | Three | One point zero three |
Yanda Shanda | Two hundred and twenty-five | Twelve Parking on 29 August | One Near 11-12 | Twelve | Seven point seven one |
Sichuan's ability to vote | One hundred | Twelve Parking on 29 August | Postponed until February 18th | Thirty-one | Eight point eight six |
Yisheng Ningbo | Sixty-five | One Parking on 1 August | Restart time to be determined | Thirty-one | Five point seven six |
Zhuhai BP | One hundred and ten | One Parking on 2 August | One Near 15 | Fourteen | Four Point Four Zero |
Fuhai creation | Four hundred and fifty | One Load fell to 6 near 3. | Plan to bring up 8-9 yuan by the end of the week. | Eight point four | Ten point eight zero |
Yisheng Ningbo | Two hundred and twenty | Scheduled for the end of January -2 months | Fifteen day | Three | One point eight nine |
Total loss | Forty-eight point eight six | ||||
Estimated operating rate | 88.20% | ||||
Source: lung Chung
According to the statistics of various sets of equipment overhaul by long Zhong information monitoring, it is found that the PTA loss in January is estimated at 488 thousand and 600 tons (see Table 1). It is estimated that the output of PTA will reach 3 million 990 thousand tons in January, and the operating rate will be around 88.20%.
surface Two polyester One Monthly scheduled maintenance and restart list
Unit: 10000 tons
factory | Involving capacity | repair time | Estimated restart time | Products involved |
Anji Huayi | Eighteen | Twelve month Thirty-one day | Expected overhaul One Months | Filament and staple fiber |
Fujian Bai Hong | Twenty | One month One day | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester filament |
Fujian Jinxing | Thirty | One month Two day | It is expected to restart after the year. | Filament and staple fiber |
Xiaoshan Lian Da | Four point five | One month Two day | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester filament |
Ningbo Quan di | Twenty-five | One Beginning of the month | Undetermined | Filament and staple fiber |
Zhejiang Tiansheng | Forty | One month Four day | After the Spring Festival | Polyester filament |
Haixin, Suqian | Fifty | One month Five day | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester filament |
Wu Jianglixin | Eight | One month Five day | Two Beginning of the month | Filament and slice |
Taicang Shen Jiu | Forty | One month Eight day | Two Beginning of the month | Polyester filament |
Yizheng chemical fibre | Ten | Eleven month Twenty-five day | One month Fifteen day | Polyester staple fiber |
Zhuhai Huarun | Thirty | Twelve The first ten days of a month | One month Ten day | PET bottle flakes |
Xiamen Xiang Lu | Thirty-six | Twelve month Twenty day | One month Ten day | Filament and staple fiber |
Dragon Aromatics | Twenty-four | Twelve month Twenty day | One month Ten day | PET bottle flakes |
Tong Kun Heng Sheng | Ten | Twelve month Twenty day | Expected to overhaul for one month. | Polyester filament |
Hainan Yisheng | Seventy-five | Twelve month Twenty day | One month Ten day | PET bottle flakes |
New Feng Ming | Thirty | One month Ten day | Undetermined | Polyester filament |
Changshu Heng Yi | Eighteen | One month Ten day | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester filament |
Zhangjiagang Xinxin | Fifteen | One month Ten day | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester filament |
Ningbo Jinsheng | Ten | One month Ten day | After the Spring Festival | Polyester filament |
Ningbo Huaxing | Twenty | One month Ten day | Two month Five day | Polyester filament |
Ningbo Zhuo Cheng | Seven point two | One month Ten day | After the Spring Festival | Polyester filament |
Fujian latitude and longitude | Twenty-five | One month Eleven day | Undetermined | Polyester filament |
Jiangsu Hongtai | Twenty-five | One month Twelve day | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester filament |
Fujian latitude and longitude | Twenty | One month Thirteen day | Undetermined | Polyester staple fiber |
Ying Xiang | Twenty | One month Thirteen day | Undetermined | Polyester filament |
Changle, Taicang | Twenty-five | One Mid month | Undetermined | Polyester filament |
Ningbo Dafa | Twenty-two | One Mid month | Undetermined | Polyester staple fiber |
Foville | Twenty-five | One Mid month | Undetermined | Polyester staple fiber |
Jiangyin three lane | Forty | One Late mid month | After the Spring Festival | Polyester staple fiber |
Jiangyin Huahong | Twenty | One Late mid month | After the Spring Festival | Polyester staple fiber |
A large factory | Thirty | One Mid month | Undetermined | Polyester staple fiber |
Xinmin | Thirty | One month Sixteen day | Undetermined | Polyester filament |
Zhejiang Jiabao | Forty | One month Seventeen day | Estimate Three Restart at the end of the month | Filament and slice |
Somlet | Twenty | One In mid December, we will gradually lose weight. | Expected overhaul One Months | PET chip |
Huaya | Thirty | One month Twenty-two day | Two month Eighteen day | Polyester filament |
Chuzhou Anxing | Twenty | One End of month | Expected overhaul One Months | Polyester staple fiber |
Sichuan Hui Wei Shi | Fifteen | One End of month Two Beginning of the month | It is expected to be servicing for half a month. | Polyester staple fiber |
Ancient towpath | One hundred and twenty | Two Mid month | Expected to overhaul for one month. | Filament and slice |
Kelvin | Forty | Three month | Expected to overhaul for one month. | Filament and slice |
Total | One thousand and eighty-seven point seven |
Source: lung Chung
According to Longzhong information, polyester enterprises have gradually joined the maintenance queue in January. Although the maintenance devices such as Xiang Lu, Tenglong and Yisheng in Hainan have been restarted in the middle of the day, however, many sets of devices such as Jingwei, Ying Xiang, Hongtai, San Fang lane and Huahong are about to enter the parking state. Therefore, it is estimated that the average starting point of polyester will be around 76-77% in January, and the output is expected to be 3 million 890 thousand tons, and the demand for PTA should be 3 million 326 thousand tons.
chart 1 PTA Processing fee chart
Source: lung Chung
At the present stage, the PTA processing fee is on the rise. As of January 10th, the PTA processing fee to 528.95 yuan / ton. Compared with the gradual increase of supply in the market, there is a risk of further decline. The 500 processing fees or higher prices are already high.
In the middle of the vicinity, Yanda Chuang 2 million 250 thousand tons, Zhuhai BP110 million tons of equipment is expected to restart, and Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons of equipment load is facing improvement, and Hengli Petrochemical 4 phase has been commissioning, qualified products are coming soon, so the operating rate and output will increase, then the processing fee is again facing the risk of downshifting. Although there is no possibility of war between the two sides, the recent instability in the Middle East will not be quickly subsided, and the further easing of Global trade risk will also bring good results. Therefore, we still need to pay attention to the fluctuation of cost side.
surface 32020 year 1-3 Monthly forecast PTA Supply and demand balance sheet
Unit: 10000 tons
index | One Month E | Two Month E | Three Month E |
yield | Three hundred and ninety-nine | Three hundred and ninety-three | Four hundred and forty-five |
Imported | Six | Six | Six |
Total supply | Four hundred and five | Three hundred and ninety-nine | Four hundred and fifty-one |
Exit | Six | Six | Six |
Downstream consumption | Three hundred and forty-four point six | Three hundred and thirty-seven point seven six | Four hundred and one point zero three |
Aggregate demand | Three hundred and fifty point six | Three hundred and forty-three point seven six | Four hundred and seven point zero three |
Supply and demand gap | Fifty-four point four | Fifty-five point two four | Forty-three point nine seven |
Source: lung Chung
According to the supply and demand balance table, there was no centralized maintenance in PTA in 1-3 months. The operation of the plant was relatively stable, and new installations were put into operation. Downstream demand was affected by the traditional holiday of Spring Festival, and the start-up of the device was greatly reduced. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand have accumulated too much.
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