Prediction Of The Trend Of New Coronavirus Outbreaks On The Upstream And Downstream Products Of Chemical Fiber Industry

During the Spring Festival holiday, the global market was affected by the outbreak of the new coronavirus, and the market was more pessimistic about the demand for commodities. The market worried about the impact of the epidemic on the economy and fuel demand, and international oil prices fell for four weeks, falling to the low half of the year. The WTI crude oil main contract closed at 51.56 U.S. dollars / barrel, fell 4.9% weekly, fell 15.6% in January, the biggest decline since May last year, Brent crude oil main contract closed at 58.16 U.S. dollars / barrel, week fell 4.2%.

At the same time, the epidemic has also had a strong impact on the chemical fiber industry chain. From the perspective of the whole industry chain, the upstream products of chemical fiber are mostly integrated and polymerization devices, and the scale intensive production has little impact on supply. The terminal textile enterprises belong to intensive enterprises, and the parking lots are more and more affected. At the same time, many provinces and cities have issued urgent notices. All kinds of enterprises (including the necessary operation of public utilities, the necessary prevention and control of epidemic situation, the necessity of mass life and other related enterprises that involve important national economy and people's livelihood) must not resume work before the Lantern Festival.

　 Demand is postponed due to the outbreak, and the price of PTA will weaken after the festival.

Affected by the outbreak of the new coronavirus, the downstream industry of the PTA&MEG industry chain has delayed the construction. According to the statistics, the commencement time of the main weaving production bases in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong has been delayed by 2 to 9 days. Shengze's Eastern Silk Market, China Light Textile City and Guangzhou International Textile City all postponed the opening date to fifteen after the first month. "It is worth noting that for PTA and MEG production enterprises, because of the integration and large-scale production enterprises, the epidemic has limited impact on their supply. During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic PTA and MEG production enterprises began to operate smoothly. As the demand for postponement is postponed due to the epidemic, PTA and MEG stocks will accumulate or exceed the expected level, and the time of inventory deactivation will be longer. The price of PTA and MEG will be weaker after the holidays.

　　 Medical nonwovens PP material is concerned, PP price or stronger.

Under the epidemic situation, masks and protective clothing are in great demand. Medical nonwovens PP materials are attracting market attention. Masks and medical products enterprises have no rest during the Spring Festival to fully protect the supply of consumables. The proportion of non-woven fabric masks is about 25%, and a ton of polypropylene fiber can produce 250 thousand protective masks. According to the 100 million person's choice of wearing masks, the demand for 3 billion masks is increased by one month, and the corresponding demand for non-woven fabric PP is about 12 thousand tons. For polypropylene with an annual output of nearly 20 million tons, the demand for this part can be said to have relatively little impact on the price of PP. On the supply side, PP still faces pressure from Hengli petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and coal chemical enterprises to concentrate production capacity, and PP prices will remain the following. At this stage, because of the strong demand for non-woven fabrics in the market, the PP price is more powerful than other varieties under the influence of emotion, so we can choose to do more PP short PTA hedging operation.

Therefore, in the short term, there is no driving plan for the terminal textile enterprises before the Spring Festival, and the overall demand for the terminal has declined significantly. For upstream raw materials PTA and MEG, weak demand has further dragged down the market, stock accumulation is higher than expected, and post holiday market weakness has become an inevitable trend.

　　 Polyester staple fiber is limited, and some export orders are rejected.

The fierce outbreak of this round has caused a great impact on many industries in our country. The polyester fiber industry can not be an exception. The panic and negative effects brought to the market can not be underestimated. Among them, downstream polyester staple fiber is used in three fields: spinning, spinning and filling. Spunlaced nonwovens can be used as an isolation layer in respirators.

However, for the polyester staple industry, there are relatively few enterprises producing spunlaced nonwovens, and less can be used for medical purposes. Therefore, the epidemic has limited benefits to the polyester staple industry. In particular, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian have announced that the working hours will be postponed to February 9th, which will delay the normal recovery cycle of the polyester fiber market. And we heard that some export orders began to withdraw, and then the polyester fiber market will be difficult to sell both inside and outside the market. Affected by this, the post market polyester fiber market will be vulnerable to operation.

　　 Weaving factory and dyeing factory delayed start up, and downstream enterprises increased pressure in February.

The textile industry has responded positively to the call of the state, and most textile factories and printing and dyeing factories have decided to delay the start up. According to the survey data of main weaving production base in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong according to long Zhong information, the sample enterprise plan was first started in February 10th (January seventeen), and the plan was generally postponed for 2-9 days compared with the pre holiday plan. However, the sample enterprises also indicated that the planned start time was scheduled for February 10th, and the actual re production situation still needs to be adjusted according to the situation of the field workers.

In addition to the downtime of factories, factories and transactions will be delayed and pressure will be placed on shipment in February. WHO's risk level for China's epidemic is still "very high", and China's civilian textile export market will also face a lot of export pressure.

Comprehensive analysis: the epidemic control and downstream resumption are still the focus of attention at present. As the current market stoppage enterprises are more, especially the labor intensive textile enterprises, and the export of clothing and textiles has been blocked, the overall demand of the chemical fiber industry has obviously weakened trend. Under the condition that the supply of chemical fiber materials has not changed much, it is an inevitable trend to continue storehouse.