Polyester Filament: Supply And Demand Two Light Situation Continues, Enterprises More Negative Risk Avoidance

During the Spring Festival, China's polyester filament market was in a state of rest, and the market was light. However, it was delayed by the extension of Spring Festival holidays, the reversion of downstream jobs remained unchanged, and some of the loads were higher during the Spring Festival.

Holiday domestic polyester filament market supply and demand two light. Downstream bombs, weaving and printing and dyeing enterprises were more than one in mid January, and most users had concentrated their positions in late December and early January, and the market demand entered the freezing period. And the domestic manufacturers expect to be cautious in the future. During the Spring Festival, the industry has started to reduce the risk of negative hedge, and the industry started to drop to around 7. After the end of the holiday, it was delayed by the event of force majeure. The workers' rework time was postponed, and the polyester filament market continued to supply and demand two light. Most enterprises had no definite offer, and a few enterprises maintained the pre holiday price level. Field price guidance.

Statistics of running status of polyester filament plant in China before and after Spring Festival

factory	Involving capacity (10000 tons / year)	repair time	Estimated restart time
Jiangyin three lane	Four	Eleven 13 June	Undetermined
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Twenty-four	Eleven Production decreased by 20% on 13 February.	Plans to restart after February 8th
Wuxi Huaya	Three point five	Eleven Mid month	Undetermined
New Feng Ming	Sixty-five	Twelve From January 5, we will gradually reduce the burden.	Delayed restart
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Forty	Twelve 11 June	Plans to restart after February 8th
Ningbo Da wo	Twenty-five	Twelve 20 June	Restart time is not yet fixed.
Anji Huayi	Eighteen	Twelve 31 June	Postponed until February 10th
Fujian Bai Hong	Twenty	One 1 June	Delayed restart
Fujian Jinxing	Twenty-three	One 2 June	It has been restarted near January 27th.
Xiaoshan Lian Da	Four point five	One 2 June	Restart time is not yet fixed.
Ningbo Quan di	Twenty	One Beginning of the month	Restart time is not yet fixed.
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Forty	One 4 June	Plans to restart after February 8th
Haixin, Suqian	Fifty	One 5 June	Restart time is not yet fixed.
Taicang Shen Jiu	Forty	One 8 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Shaoxing Jin Xin	Twenty	One 8 June	Restart time is not yet fixed.
New Feng Ming	Thirty	One 10 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Changshu Heng Yi	Eighteen	One 10 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Fifteen	One 10 June	Delayed restart
Ningbo Jinsheng	Ten	One 10 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Ningbo Huaxing	Twenty	One 10 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Ningbo Zhuo Cheng	Seven point two	One 10 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Wu Jiangxinmin	Ten	One 10 June	Undetermined
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Twenty-five	One 10 June	Two Month 6
Shaoxing No. 1 Factory	Ten	One 10 June	Two 5 June
Fujian latitude and longitude	Twenty-five	One 11 June	Undetermined
Jiangsu Hongtai	Twenty-five	One 12 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Wujiang Eagle Xiang	Twenty	One 13 June	Undetermined
Changle, Taicang	Twenty-five	One 13 June	Temporarily postponed for a week to restart
Wu Jiangxinmin	Twenty	One 13 June	Undetermined
Fujian Jing Lian	Twenty	One 15 June	Undetermined
Zhejiang Jiabao	Forty	One 15 June	Two Start restarting near 6.
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Twenty-one	One 16 June	One 31 June
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Ten	One 17 June	Two 8 June
Wuxi Huaya	Thirty	One 22 June	Postponed restart, the specific time is uncertain.
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Eight	One 23 June	Two 11 June
Tong Kun Heng Tong	Forty	Two On June 2, production was cut down one after another.	Undetermined
Tongxiang No. 1 Factory	One hundred and twenty-six	One On June 27, production was cut down one after another.	Undetermined
Ningbo Quan di	Five	Two 1 June	Undetermined
Shaoxing Tiansheng	Twenty	Two 2 June	Two 17 months in succession restart
New materials from Southeast China	Thirty	Two 2 June	Undetermined
Kaiser, Zhejiang	Thirty-eight	Two 2 June	Undetermined
Taicang Zhen Hui	Twenty	Two 3 June	Undetermined
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Fifteen	Two 3 June	Delayed restart
Xiaoshan Lian Da	Thirteen	Two 6 June	Undetermined
Fujian nylon	Twenty	Two 6 June	Undetermined
Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory	Twenty-five	Two 8 June	Two Restart at the end of the month
Ancient Silk Road (Lv Yu)	Thirty	Two Mid month	Three Mid month
Total	One thousand one hundred and sixty-eight point two	?	?

According to long Zhong data statistics: as of press release, before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity of domestic melt direct spinning polyester filament repair involves 10 million 802 thousand tons / year. Among them, Tongxiang one factory, Xinxin, Tiansheng, Southeast, Kai Shi, Zhen Hui and other enterprises are new maintenance devices, and some enterprises in February are expanding their maintenance efforts. And at this time in a special period, part of the early stage plan to restart the factory in late January and early February is now postponing its restart plan. The time is delayed in the vicinity of 1-2 weeks, and the plan is basically restarted after February 9th.

Affected by the Lunar New Year's Spring Festival, the opening rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has gradually declined, and weaving enterprises in various areas have been closed down for a long time, and a few large enterprises have run down during the Spring Festival. Before the holiday, most enterprises plan to start Yu Zheng from eight to fifteen in January, and some of them are running late in the first fifteen months to twenty in January. However, due to the escalation of the force majeure event, the weaving enterprises in various regions have not yet resumed operation. At present, some enterprises plan to start as early as February 10th (January seventeen), and start late in some areas or postpone to February 17th (January twenty-four). The actual production needs to be adjusted according to the situation of foreign workers coming to work. It is estimated that the loom start rate will gradually return to normal level at the end of February.

Main raw material PTA: under the influence of Spring Festival holidays, downstream terminal looms workers are returning home gradually, and the downstream businesses are adding more parking and weaving enterprises. The demand has entered the freezing period, and polyester enterprises have gradually opened the holiday mode, and the industry has gradually left the market. As of January 23rd, the PTA price was closed at 4740 yuan / ton. And after the Spring Festival, the PTA market is hard to say. Taking into account the current economic and demand outlook is not optimistic, in the first half or will still be subject to unexpected demand expectations, resulting in PTA cost support is weak, mentality is also not optimistic; and PTA's own device is stable, high supply, and affected by the Wuhan incident, polyester enterprises high inventory, overhaul of enterprises more delayed driving time, terminal enterprises return more than 2-9 days. Under the dual pressure of high market supply and low demand, the pressure of PTA storage is expected to increase again. It is not ruled out that PTA is affected by high inventory and the parking phenomenon appears. Late PTA market is difficult to get rid of the weak pattern, price or in the vicinity of 4200-4400 yuan / ton turbulence.

Under the influence of the force majeure event, the domestic polyester filament plant restarting plan has been postponed, but there are few domestic transactions during the Spring Festival, and the pressure on enterprise inventory is large. After that, the market is expected to be cautious and pessimistic, and take the strategy of reducing risks and avoiding risks. Therefore, the starting of polyester filament in February is still declining, and the expected start up to 65%. Downstream, Xiaoshao and other regions weaving and dyeing industry started to postpone until mid February, while the early stage of temporary digestion is mainly in the short term, the production and sale of polyester filament is difficult to upgrade, so the domestic polyester filament will continue to supply and demand two light in February. Cost side, raw material storage downward expectations, low cost and high inventory will drag polyester filament price, February POY150D/48F negotiation price is expected at 6600-6900 yuan / ton.