What Is The Impact Of Britain'S "Off Europe"?

London local time on January 31st 23 points, that is, Beijing time February 1st at 7 o'clock, Britain officially withdrew from the EU. In January 31st, the headquarters of the European Union, Brussels, Belgium, did not carry out any special activities because of Britain's official "off Europe".

　　 European Union moves British flag

Just a few hours before that evening, the British official "off Europe", at the entrance of the European Council Building in Brussels, two staff members removed the British flag, which was originally placed with the flag of other European Union countries, which took less than a minute. It is understood that the British flag, which has witnessed the history, may be collected in a museum in Brussels. About 25 minutes later, the British flag was lowered on the flagpole outside the European Parliament building in Brussels. The British flag is also said to be collected in the museum.

On the afternoon of January 31st local time, the United Kingdom had removed the EU flag outside the Brussels representative office in the EU, leaving only the British flag on the flagpole.

　　 Leaders of the three leading institutions of the European Union: I wish Britain all the best.

On January 31st, leaders of the three major European Union institutions, namely, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council, spoke in Brussels on the future British EU relations. The three leaders said, "wish Britain everything goes well", and vowed to defend the interests of the European Union in the future British European negotiations.

The chairman of the European Commission, Leyen, European conference president Sassoli and European Council president Michel, said at a joint press conference on January 31st that Britain's right to withdraw from the EU would never be compared with its interests as a member of the European Union.

European Commission Chairman Leyen: we hope to establish the best possible relationship with the UK, but this relationship will never be like that of the member states. Experience tells us that isolated countries can not be strong, but only in our unique alliances.

Leyen said the EU will firmly defend its interests in the future negotiations between Britain and Europe. In accordance with the agreement reached between Britain and Europe, the transition from Europe to Europe will take place from February 1st. During the transition period, Britain should not only renegotiate its relations with the EU countries, but also consider the current economic and trade ties with EU countries under the EU framework, and the negotiation of the trade agreement between Britain and Europe will become the focus. Sassoli said that Britain and Europe will enter a new stage of negotiations after the withdrawal of Europe, and the parties concerned will make arduous efforts to this end. Michel also stressed that if Britain chose to deviate from EU standards, it would mean that Britain could not fully access the European single market.

Yang Hong, a CCTV reporter, said that free trade negotiations will start in about a month, and that "fairness" is expected to become a leading topic. If the two sides still fail to agree on the transition before the end of 2020, the final outcome may still be the absence of agreement from Britain. There is another possibility, of course, to extend the transition period, but whether Britain and the EU are willing to run a marathon again, whether the two sides can afford it is unknown.

　　 Britain releases 3 million "off Europe" commemorative coins

In January 31st, the United Kingdom issued a commemorative coin worth 50 pence (about 4.5 yuan). The commemorative coins are inscribed with the words "sharing peace, prosperity and friendship" and the date "January 31, 2020".

On the same day, the United Kingdom issued 3 million such commemorative coins, and 7 million additional ones will be released during the year. It is understood that the "euro" commemorative coins were originally issued in October 31, 2019, but the date of issuance of the commemorative coins was also postponed due to the extension from January 31, 2020 to January 31, 2020.

Since the beginning of the British accession to the European Union in 1973, the United Kingdom and the European Union have had 46 years of bedfellows, and now they end up breaking up. In the remaining 11 months of the transition period as usual, the British EORI can still be cleared in other European countries, valid until December 31, 2020.

　　 Britain's main influence on trade after its withdrawal from Europe

First, the EU custom duties no longer apply.

The regional integration of the European Union has the nature of the customs union, setting up common tariffs on the outside, and achieving trade liberalization internally. This means that the Member States will transfer the tariff making power to the European Union and can not negotiate trade agreements with other countries outside the alliance independently.

After the withdrawal of euro, trade between China and Britain will be operated according to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Two, customs clearance of goods entering and leaving the European Union and the United Kingdom becomes more complicated.

Under the unified customs system of the EU, goods entering and leaving the EU do not need to repeat customs clearance and tax payment procedures. Apart from Europe, the United Kingdom and the European Union will be independent customs operation systems. The original EU unified HS system is bound to be volatile, and goods will be more complex than before.

After the success of the European Union, the UK will comply with the EU customs 24 hours (EU24HR) advance manifest system as any other non EU countries.

The EU24HR rules require the shipping company to make an entry declaration (ENS) to all relevant customs for all goods loaded on one or more European ports. That is to say, all goods transported to the European Union and transit through the European Union or the ports at the ports of the European Union are required to submit complete and accurate ENS information to the customs of the first European Union country before the ship arrives at the port of departure.

Three, the mutual recognition of AEO between Chinese customs and the European Union is affected.

Even if Britain postpones the AEO recognition between the EU and China, the two countries still need to make separate mutual recognition contracts, which is the most ideal result. If there is a disagreement between the British customs and the Chinese customs, the two sides will have to restart the negotiations, leading to the disappearance of the previous customs dividend.

Four, the EORI number will fail in the EU.

The EORI number is an essential registration number in European Union countries, especially those with import and export businesses. It is used to identify every import and export trade declared by an enterprise, trader or individual. As long as the registration number is obtained in the customs of the enterprise, it is universal in the EU.

　　 remind

After successfully depart from Europe, the EORI number of GB will be invalidated in the EU. British companies can apply for EU EORI numbers in other EU countries beforehand. From the point of view of logistics companies, remind the owner of the following points:

1, apply for EU EORI as soon as possible.

Many sellers used to be a GB EORI to solve customs clearance problems in Europe. The EORI number of EU countries is universal and unique, so GB can not do it now. It is imperative to apply for EORI of EU countries as soon as possible. The German market is relatively large. It is recommended to apply for German EORI, that is, the EORI beginning with DE. Of course, enterprises have their own emphases and can choose which country to apply for.

2 how to apply for the German EORI?

EORI is applied to the customs, it can apply online, but it needs to provide the local address to receive the EORI notification. Therefore, it is suggested that we should find a German tax agent to do so. Generally speaking, it takes 1-2 weeks to apply for the German EORI, but it does not exclude the situation that the system is paralyzed due to the surge in demand, just like what happened before the German VAT application was not long ago. The application materials include: German local tax identification number, German VAT tax number, German tax agent office and other related information.

3 customs clearance options and reminders

Time is pressing. It is suggested that we should apply for air transportation directly to the German channel, and apply for the German EORI as soon as possible. As soon as we take the shipping channel, we suggest that we should choose the regulatory clearance as far as possible and apply it as slowly as possible, and that the regulatory warehouse can serve as a transitional period. If we do not want to take the risk of Customs at this very moment, it is prudent for us to temporarily choose to use our European dual channel to transit into Germany. 。

If the United Kingdom leaves the EU without a deal, all trade with Europe will be carried out in accordance with the provisions of the WTO. Under the WTO tariff, British exports to the EU account for 48% of total exports, and will be subject to trade weighted average tariff of 5.7%, while the EU's exports to the UK (16% of total EU exports) will face 4.3% tariffs. Some researchers pointed out: "trade also has significant non-tariff barriers, including customs control, new frontier inspection, especially regulation of food and agricultural products, and regulatory barriers."

　　 What is the development trend of bilateral trade between China and Britain?

Following the return of Hongkong in 1997, China and the United Kingdom further deepened their trade cooperation. In 1998, China and the United Kingdom established a comprehensive partnership, and the trade volume between the two countries accelerated gradually from a steady pace of 1997. In May 2004, China and Britain established a comprehensive strategic partnership. In 2018, bilateral trade in goods between Britain and China amounted to US $82 billion 100 million, an increase of 12% over the same period last year, according to statistics from the British customs and Customs Administration (H.M.RevenueandCustoms). China is the sixth largest export market and the fourth largest source of imports in the UK. The UK exports 28 billion 330 million to China, the UK imports 53 billion 760 million from China, and the British trade deficit is 25 billion 430 million US dollars. In the past few years, the plan of "Britain to Europe" has not been conclusive, but there is no doubt that the "Britain off Europe" plan is bound to have a certain impact on the development of bilateral trade between China and Britain.

　　 Overview of UK's foreign trade status

1. In 2018, the volume of trade in the UK rose to over $1 trillion and 150 billion.

Britain was the first capitalist country to start the process of industrialization. During the two World War, Britain's economic strength was severely hit. In 1973, Britain joined the European Economic Community (the European community was renamed the European Union in November 1, 1993) and strengthened its trade relationship with European countries. Britain is a big country in the world trade, and its dependence on foreign trade is large. The development of foreign trade has an important impact on its domestic economy.

According to statistics from the British customs and Customs Administration (H.M.RevenueandCustoms), the volume of foreign trade in the UK has fluctuated in 2009-2019 years. After reaching a historical peak of $1 trillion and 200 billion in 2014, it began to be affected by the global economic and trade environment in 2015, and the overall situation of foreign trade was downward. In the past two years, the total import and export volume of British goods was 1 trillion and 146 billion 660 million US dollars, up from the same period last year. 7.6%, in the first quarter of 2019, the total import and export volume was US $288 billion 600 million, an increase of 17.4% over the previous year.

2, the overall trade structure of the UK is in deficit.

According to the statistics of the British customs and Customs Administration (H.M.RevenueandCustoms), the import volume of British goods was always higher than the export volume in the 2009-2019 years, and the trade structure of the UK always maintained a deficit position. However, the reverse balance fluctuated greatly, the adverse balance in 2013 was only $106 billion 900 million, and the deficit in 2016 was as high as 215 billion 300 million US dollars. Among them, in 2018, Britain exported 494 billion 70 million US dollars, an increase of 11.3%, and imports of US $652 billion 590 million, an increase of 4.9%. The trade deficit was 158 billion 520 million US dollars, down 10.9%.

In addition, the main sources of trade deficit in 2018 were Germany, China and Norway. The inverse balance in 2018 was 44 billion 740 million US dollars, 25 billion 430 million US dollars and 21 billion 280 million US dollars respectively, Germany increased by 10.8%, and China and Holland respectively decreased by 16.5% and 11.1% respectively. The trade surplus mainly came from Switzerland and Ireland. In 2018, the surplus was 19 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 101%, and Ireland's surplus of 9 billion 410 million US dollars, an increase of 46.1%.

3. Analysis of the UK's export destination countries: China is the sixth largest export market in the UK.

In 2018, the UK export market recovered substantially. From the data of TOP15 countries and regions exported to the United Kingdom, the UK's exports to TOP15 exporting countries increased more than 2017.

According to country (region), in 2018, the British export market was more dependent on the United States, with an export volume of US $67 billion 40 million, accounting for 13.6% of the total British exports. Secondly, the exports of Britain to Germany, Holland, France and Ireland were 47 billion 650 million US dollars, 34 billion 410 million US dollars, 32 billion 230 million US dollars and 28 billion 380 million US dollars respectively, accounting for 9.6%, 7%, 6.5% and 5.7% of the total export volume of the United Kingdom respectively. Followed by China, China is the sixth largest export market in the UK, with an export volume of US $28 billion 300 million, accounting for about 5.7%.

It is worth noting that in 2018, the UK exports to TOP15 countries and regions increased the volume of exports to China by 32.2%.

4. Analysis of the UK's source country of imports: China is the fourth largest importer of British power.

From the country (region), in 2018, the import volume of imports from Canada and Japan in the TOP15 countries and regions of British goods trade had a negative growth, and the rest were positive growth. Germany is the first country of origin in the UK, with an import volume of US $92 billion 390 million, accounting for 14.2% of the total British imports. Secondly, Britain's imports from the United States, Holland, China and France were 63 billion 600 million US dollars, 55 billion 490 million US dollars, 53 billion 760 million US dollars and 38 billion 100 million US dollars respectively, accounting for 9.8%, 8.5%, 8.2% and 5.8% of the total British imports respectively. To sum up, China is the fourth largest source of British imports.

　　 Overview of Sino British bilateral trade in goods

1, 2018 Sino British bilateral trade market rebound

Following the return of Hongkong in 1997, China and the United Kingdom further deepened their trade cooperation. In 1998, China and the United Kingdom established a comprehensive partnership, and the trade volume between the two countries accelerated gradually from a steady pace of 1997. In May 2004, China and the United Kingdom established a comprehensive strategic partnership and jointly issued a joint statement to put forward more suggestions and opinions on bilateral, multilateral and global issues. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, Europe's economic growth has been weak, and some countries have even seen a downward trend. However, Sino British trade has been able to go against the trend and continue to grow at a high level. In 2015, bilateral trade volume reached a peak of 91 billion 30 million US dollars.

According to the statistics of the British customs and Taxation Administration (H.M.RevenueandCustoms), the fluctuation of Sino British bilateral trade volume in the past 2013-2019 years has reached the historical peak of US $91 billion 30 million in 2015. On the one hand, it has been influenced by the global economic and trade environment. On the other hand, it has been listed by a series of measures of "Britain off Europe", and bilateral trade volume has dropped to 73 billion 810 million US dollars in 2016. Beginning in 2018, bilateral trade in goods between Britain and China began to pick up, increasing to $82 billion 100 million, an increase of 12% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-3, bilateral trade in goods between Britain and China amounted to US $20 billion 390 million, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last year.

Judging from the change in the proportion of Sino British bilateral trade volume to total foreign trade in the past 2013-2019 years, 2015 is the watershed of the Sino British bilateral trade market. In the 2013-2015 year, China's position in the UK's foreign trade market increased year by year; in the 2016-2019 year, the proportion dropped and basically kept 7%.

2, the British trade deficit and the reverse balance are decreasing.

In the 2013-2019 year, the import volume of the UK from China was always higher than the export volume, the trade surplus of China and the trade deficit of the United Kingdom. However, the reverse balance was decreasing. The 2013-2016 year trade deficit remained basically above 35 billion dollars, and the next two years decreased by about 5 billion US dollars annually.

In 2018, China was the sixth largest export market and the fourth largest source of imports in the UK; the UK exported 28 billion 330 million US dollars to China, an increase of 32.2%, accounting for 5.7% of the total British exports; the United Kingdom imported 53 billion 760 million US dollars from China, an increase of 3.6%, accounting for 8.2% of the total British imports. The British trade deficit was 25 billion 430 million US dollars, down 16.5%.

Product dimension: Sino British bilateral trade import and export analysis

1. Export market: analysis of UK's exports to the world

According to the statistics of the British customs and Taxation Administration (H.M.RevenueandCustoms), in 2018, electromechanical products, transport equipment, chemical products and precious metals and products were the top four export commodities in the UK. In 2018, they exported 102 billion 740 million US dollars, US $77 billion 430 million and US $63 billion 830 million and US $48 billion 870 million, accounting for 20.8%, 15.7%, 12.9% and 9.9% of the total export volume of the UK. Add 9.1%, 2%, 0.9% and 49.3%.

Combined with the country / regional composition of the five major export commodities in the UK in 2018, the export of electromechanical products, transport equipment and chemical products of the top three products were more dependent on the US market, and the proportion of exports to the United States exceeded 15%. Followed by Germany, the proportion of the first three categories of products to the German market exports are also between 10%-15%.

2. Export market: analysis of UK exports to China

The four main categories of British exports to China are precious metals and products, transport equipment, minerals and mechanical and electrical products. The pattern of British exports to the world is significantly different from the pattern of products exported to China, as follows.

First, the most important products exported by the UK to the global market are mechanical and electrical products, with an export volume of up to US $102 billion 740 million, accounting for up to 20.8%, but exports to China are only 3 billion 441 million US dollars, accounting for about 12.2%. This is because China and the UK have their own comparative advantages in the market of mechanical and electrical products. China's mechanical and electrical products have greater competitiveness in the world, so the amount of mechanical and electrical products exported to China by the UK is relatively small.

Second, precious metals and products and minerals are the fourth and fifth largest products exported from Britain to the world, but they are the largest and third largest products exported to the Chinese market. The former is due to the rich resources of precious metals in the United Kingdom, and the high reputation of British luxury goods related jewelry brands, which is more popular in the Chinese market. The latter is due to the large demand for mineral resources in China and the abundant mineral resources in Britain.

It is worth noting that although the pattern of exports to the UK is significantly different from that of China's exports, TOP15 products are the same.

In 2018, the proportion of products exported from Britain to China accounted for the total export volume of the product. The recognition of the four categories of precious metals and products, minerals, transport equipment and cellulose pulp / paper in China was significantly higher in China, and the proportion of exports to China was 12.88%, 10.70%, 7.22% and 6.05% respectively. It is 5.73%.

3. Import market: analysis of products imported from the United Kingdom

According to the statistics of the British customs and Taxation Administration (H.M.RevenueandCustoms), the major import commodities in the UK are electromechanical products, transport equipment, minerals, chemical products and precious metals and products. In 2018, they imported 141 billion 620 million US dollars, 87 billion 200 million US dollars, 70 billion 500 million US dollars, US $63 billion 850 million and US $41 billion 200 million, accounting for 21.7%, 13.4%, 10.8%, 9.8% and 6. of the total British imports. 3%, the total proportion is 67.5%. It is worth noting that the top five export products are the same as those of the top five importing products.

Combined with the country / regional composition of the five major export commodities in the UK in 2018, the import market is more dependent on the German market, especially the proportion of transport equipment imported from Germany as high as 35%, followed by the US market, especially the proportion of electromechanical products imported from the United States as high as 16%.

4. Import market: analysis of products imported from China by the United Kingdom

The pattern of imports from the United Kingdom is significantly different from that of products imported from China.

The first three categories of goods imported from Britain were electromechanical products, furniture, toys, textiles and raw materials. In 2018, they imported 19 billion 810 million US dollars, US $7 billion 580 million and US $6 billion 170 million respectively, accounting for 36.9%, 14.1% and 11.5% of the total imports from China, 9.5% for mechanical and electrical products, and 3%, 4.9% for furniture, toys, textiles and raw materials respectively. In addition, base metals and products, plastic rubber and chemical products are also important products imported from China.

China has a strong advantage over labor-intensive products, the largest source of imports of furniture, toys, textiles and raw materials in the UK, accounting for 38.48% and 19.94% of the UK's import market share. In addition, China is also the largest source of imported shoes and umbrellas and leather products in Britain.

　　 Development trend of bilateral trade between China and Britain

　 "Britain off Europe" process

Britain's departure from Europe's commitment to Cameron's campaign in 2013 led to a final referendum in June 23, 2016. Then Cameron resigned and Teresa Mei became prime minister. In March 29, 2017, Teresa Mae sent a letter to the European Union and formally launched the European departure process. Since then, there have been many rounds of negotiations between the UK and the EU, but there is still no substantive progress on a number of key issues. In March 2018, the EU and the United Kingdom reached an agreement on the terms of the euro off transition. The transitional period will last 21 months and end in December 2020. In June 2018, the United Kingdom officially ended the membership of the European Union. In July, the United Kingdom issued a white paper on Euro retreat, explaining the relationship between EU and EU.

In April 10, 2019, the EU leaders summit formally agreed to the request of the British to extend the final date of the euro to October 31st, avoiding the risk that the United Kingdom would have no agreement to break away from the EU in April 12th. Although the European Union has met the full discussion time in the UK, Prime Minister Mei also began to consult with the Labour Party on the cross party cooperation plan. The situation is developing in a good direction, but we must also realize that the haze of the extreme situation has not dissipated. Judging from the progress of consultations and games between the British Parliament and the government over the past 2 years, half a year can not fully guarantee a satisfactory solution to the European Union's satisfaction. Under the extreme scenario, there is still no agreement to break the euro beyond the market expectations.

The UK trade market is highly dependent on the EU market.

According to the overall dependence of the British import and export market on the European Union in the past 2013-2019 years, the UK trade market is highly dependent on the European Union, and its dependence on imports and exports fluctuates at 50%. However, from the change trend, Britain's dependence on exports to the EU has declined from 49.9% in 2013 to 46.2% in 2018, and the dependence on imports is still at a relatively high level, from 54.3% in 2013 to 55.6%.

There is no doubt that the EU is Britain's largest trading partner. Britain gains a lot from the free trade agreement with the EU. Once Europe is removed, it will have a serious impact on British trade.

The EU's dependence on exports to Britain is on the decline. In 2017, British exports accounted for 10.9% of the total exports of the EU, a record low of 5 years, while imports accounted for 14.8%, a 3 year low. This shows that the EU's trade dependence on Britain is weakening. Relatively speaking, Britain's trade share is not high, which is why Britain has been at a disadvantage position in the EU's EU negotiations.

The influence of "Britain off Europe" on Sino British bilateral trade

There is no doubt that the "Britain off Europe" plan is bound to have a certain impact on the development of bilateral trade between China and Britain. Britain's departure from Europe will change the world economic structure and will have a series of effects on Sino British trade. On the one hand, Britain no longer enjoys the preferential trade terms such as zero tariffs as EU Member States, which will weaken the import and export trade relationship between the UK and the EU Member States, thereby increasing the opportunities for Sino British trade cooperation, expanding the scale of trade between China and Britain, and implementing a new Sino British trade policy. On the other hand, Britain's departure from Europe will affect the import and export balance of China's trade with the United Kingdom, which may lead to a decrease in trade balance.

The United Kingdom has brought opportunities and challenges to Sino British trade development. China should seize the opportunity to negotiate and reach a consensus with the United Kingdom on trade facilitation, and strive to bring more benefits to our country, while reducing the cost of export trade, continuously developing new products, enhancing the competitiveness of international trade, and thus gaining more trade share. At the same time, China should also make full preparations for the following challenges and actively adjust its currency. And exchange rate policy, and do a good job in observing the exchange rate of sterling, and when dealing with the impact of the pound's decline on Sino British trade, and then optimize the Sino British trade structure, and fundamentally promote the development of trade between China and Britain.