30 Provinces Have Resumed Work And Resumed Production, And The Whole Province Of Hubei Has Stopped Work. Raw Materials Have Dropped Sharply, And Chemical Industry Chain Has Been Hit Hard.

A epidemic disease caused the whole nation to ban the new year's Eve. The day of the reunion could not get together, and the enterprises that started production could not operate.

　　 With the gradual control of the new epidemic of coronary pneumonia, the first round of resumption of labor resumed in China.

1, in addition to Hubei, the remaining 30 provinces have resumed work in succession.

On February 9th, at the news conference of the joint defense and joint control mechanism of the State Council, Chen Da, deputy director of the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that at present, except for Hubei Province, the other 30 provinces of the country have arranged for enterprises to resume work and resume production.

　　 30 provinces and municipalities such as Henan and Guangdong have issued relevant guidance on resumption of work and rehabilitation, requiring staff to come back to work and wear masks and accept temperature monitoring. During the start-up period, the facilities, facilities and facilities of factories, workshops, elevators, etc. should be sterilized and cleaned, and ventilation in the workshop area should be strengthened. Business canteens staggering to eat, at the last moment to eat the mask, to avoid face to face meals, avoid eating talk, avoid getting together to eat.

Most enterprises shut down for a week due to the shutdown of the epidemic, and lack of supplies for daily necessities and medical supplies. It is reported that the domestic masks manufacturing enterprises return to work rate of up to 73%, natural gas, refined oil supply is adequate, civil aviation and railway operation is normal.

Guangdong: to resume work and resume production, we must make every effort to ensure that the epidemic prevention and control and safety production are in place. Closely monitor staff visits and health, ensure that the epidemic prevention and control mechanism, staff health checks, protection facilities and materials meet the requirements of re employment. In addition, we should pay attention to safety in key areas such as transportation, construction, hazardous chemicals, fire and gas, and organize special rectification actions to ensure effective prevention and settlement of major production safety risks.

Jiangxi: epidemic prevention and control, energy supply, transportation and logistics, urban and rural operation, medical supplies and food and other necessities such as production, feed production, market circulation and sales, which involve important areas of national economy and people's livelihood. Other enterprises with market orders and raw materials production should give priority to the start up. When our employees return to work, we must obtain and carry out the health certificates issued by the units at the township (street) above the place where they live.

Hebei: in batches, enterprises will resume production and resume work in batches. The epidemic prevention materials, key raw materials, important production equipment and parts, food and other daily necessities are included in the scope of emergency transportation support, and the relevant transport vehicles are not stopped, no inspection, no charge, priority and convenient access. Coal, electricity, oil, gas and other factors supply and demand market dynamic monitoring and precise scheduling, and resolutely prevent regional, time shortages and price increases.

The 30 provinces have started work one after another to ease the tension between supply and demand of all kinds of goods, and the orderly resumption of production and production can ensure the supply of the market. But a province in Hubei is also one of the strong chemical industry provinces. The resumption of "no period" will affect the market supply of chemical raw materials.

2, Hubei's resumption of production has no period. Will chemical industry be the most affected?

Hubei is one of the major industrial provinces in China. Wuhan is one of the most important industrial cities in China, according to statistics. Wuhan's GDP ranked the ninth in 2019, and a large amount of material was transported to all parts of the country via Wuhan. What is the impact of Hubei's shutdown and its impact on the chemical industry?

According to the data of the Ministry of transport, Hubei's ports are mainly used for domestic trade transportation, including crude oil, ore, coal and other bulk commodities, machinery products, steel products, chemicals and so on. At present, Hubei is affected by the epidemic, production stagnation, or will have an impact on the upstream and downstream industry chain.

　　 Data sources: Port website, Ministry of transport, Guotai Junan Securities research.

According to Wind and Guotai Junan Securities research statistics, the largest proportion of Hubei's high weighted industry added value is chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry. It can be seen that Hubei will stop production and shutdown, and the chemical industry will be the most affected.

　　 Data sources: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities research.

The impact of the resumption of other provinces in the near future will be:

Chemical products manufacturing is directly affected, and the industries whose downstream demand is larger are concentrated in rubber plastics, papermaking and processing, wood and processing industries, and textile industries. These industries are affected or even larger because of their own demand shocks.

Due to the delay in the resumption of work, the delay of construction activities and the superposition of the automobile chain will have a short-term inhibition on the demand for ferrous, non-ferrous metal smelting and metal products.

There are some soda ash, chlor alkali and inorganic salt listed companies in chemical raw materials in Hubei. There are some compound fertilizer, explosive products and pesticide related listed companies in chemical products. The chemical raw materials with relatively concentrated yield include phosphate ore, monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, paraquat and glyphosate, etc. the weakening of terminal demand caused by the subsequent epidemic may also aggravate the operational risks of some enterprises.

It is inevitable that the chemical industry in Hubei will be affected by the suppression of the chemical industry. Today, however, the chemical industry chain is longer, the downstream demand is extensive, and the production has continuity, and the substitution of raw materials and products is higher, so it only brings some short-term risk to the supply chain within the regional radius. Thus, chemical industry supply chain risk is limited, more is the risk of demand inhibition.

3, resume work safety, production smoothly

The Ministry of transport issued a circular calling for the prevention and control of epidemic diseases and speeding up the resumption of road and waterway works. In addition to the heavy areas of Hubei and other epidemic prevention and control tasks, it is necessary to resume preparations before February 15, 2020, and strive to resume work before February 20th.

At present, enterprises in other provinces have begun to resume production except Hubei. Rehabilitation enterprises should pay attention to epidemic prevention and pay attention to production safety. Guangjun Jun, I wish you every effort to return to work safely and start smoothly.