In The Past, The United States Cotton Or Once Again Show Its Talents.

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According to the latest monthly report of USDA, the output and export volume of Brazil cotton in 2019/20 were 2 million 765 thousand tons and 1 million 938 thousand tons respectively, of which the export volume increased by 628 thousand tons over the year of 2018/19, an increase of 47.94% over the same period last year. Brazil's main export markets are Southeast Asia, China and Bangladesh.

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According to statistics from Australian authoritative industry organizations, as of the end of December 2019, the total export volume of Australia cotton reached 1 million 880 thousand bales, of which 1 million 260 thousand packages were exported to China, accounting for 67.02% (the number of imported Australian cotton in December accounted for 77% of the total volume of cotton exports in that month), followed by Indonesia (147 thousand and 100 packages). Therefore, although Australia's cotton quotes were "extremely cold" due to the "cut in output" in 2019, Chinese buyers did not receive much influence on the price of inquiries and signing contracts. On the one hand, some Chinese textile enterprises and garment factories needed rigid consumption for Australian cotton because of orders, and the other side was SM 1-5/32, SM 1-3/16 and other high quality Australian cotton can partly replace long staple cotton spinning, which is conducive to reducing the cost of raw materials in cotton mills. In addition, in January, some cotton mills and traders signed up to purchase not less than 30 thousand tons of India cotton (using 2019 quotas).

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According to the above situation, it is judged that China's "marketable" imports of US cotton will be concentrated in August before 2020, and the 8-12 months will be exported to Australia, Brazil cotton and India cotton.

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First, although the cumulative export volume of US cotton reached USDA on the 6 th of February, 86% of the total exports were predicted, a large proportion of the resources were concentrated in the hands of International Cotton Traders and export enterprises.

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Secondly, with the turning point and momentum of China's epidemic situation being curbed, from time to time, the 2-7 month import of American agricultural products (including cotton) will be launched in a large scale to avoid the pressure of breach of contract by the US side.

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Third, the central bank continuously releases liquidity. In order to cope with the epidemic, alleviate the pressure of capital flow of small and micro enterprises, stimulate the rapid economic stability and rebound, the central bank recently opened more than 2 trillion of the sluice gates, and the raw materials of the enterprises were enough to purchase raw materials.

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Fourth, comparatively speaking, short-term cotton price is high. From the survey, in the middle and February of the year, EMOT 41-4, 42-4 and ME 41-3 and ME 42-4 offer less than M 1-1/8 Brazil cotton 6-7 cents / pound. Once the tariff is abolished or substantially reduced, the competitiveness of US cotton is significantly higher than that of Brazil cotton, West African cotton, black cotton and so on.

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Fifth, the United States cotton shipment, large number of bonded, buyers choose plenty of space. For textile enterprises, the quantity of American cotton supply is large, the quality is stable, and the difference between batches is small, which is conducive to the cotton blending in the workshop, the quality of cotton yarn is stable, and the order is good for the medium and long lines.

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