Cotton Prices Plummeted, Cotton Reserves Entered The First Suspension Of The Cotton Price Rebound Timing? How To Operate In The Near Future?

Market brief

In February 28th, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. planned to purchase 15000 tons of Xinjiang cotton, and the actual turnover was 15000 tons, with a turnover rate of 100%. The average price was 13387 yuan / ton, of which Xinjiang warehouse was 0 tons, and the mainland warehouse was 15000 tons. Last week (February 21st -28), the import and export situation of national cotton stores has gradually improved, with a total turnover of 43 thousand tons, with a total turnover of 27 thousand and 640 tons, with an average turnover rate of 56.11%, with an average price of 13647 yuan / ton. This week (March 2-6), Xinjiang cotton entered the bid price (discount standard grade 3128B) 13565 yuan / ton, down 151 yuan / ton. However, due to the 26-28 day of February 2020, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been more than 800 yuan / ton for three consecutive working days. In March 2nd, Xinjiang cotton was suspended from listing. During the rotation period, when the difference between the inside and outside cotton price drops to less than 800 yuan / ton, the first trading day after the fall will restart the listing transaction.

Zheng cotton opened lower limit, and many of them reduced their positions, and public health events broke out in Japan and South Korea. Investors were pessimistic about economic expectations, and domestic and foreign commodities declined. The market was worried about the decline in China's textile and clothing exports. Zheng cotton continued to fall, focusing on Zheng cotton's main performance near 12000 yuan / ton. Spot cotton prices fell sharply, the base point price of resources dropped, trade enterprises and some cotton spinning enterprises came to a low price. Cotton mills maintained a cautious attitude towards raw materials and cotton, while maintaining a follow up plan for raw materials. However, according to market understanding, although the short-term cotton mill had a large floating loss, the mentality was relatively calm. Generally speaking, after the demand was improved, cotton prices still rebounded, and there was no price cut in the market. In the late stage, the demand for lint cotton will slowly rise as the downstream textile enterprises resume production, but the demand will be limited in the short term, the purchase and sale of the lint market will remain weak, and the cotton price will not support enough. It is expected that the lint market will continue to be weak.

Acrylonitrile quotation concussion, there is no lack of low price offer, the terminal factory resumed slow pace, and the logistics restrictions were obvious, the mainstream downstream factories were sluggish, the load of factory installations was still low, acrylonitrile was sluggish, factories accumulated inventories, the intermediate market prices were referred to factory prices, the terminal demand was slowly upward, and the downstream factories were selling and selling pressure. Force is still difficult to ease quickly, the market bearish atmosphere continues, but acrylonitrile prices gradually approaching the cost line, the price of acrylonitrile prices are expected to be limited, and the short term will continue weak shocks. Acrylic fiber prices continue to be stable, 1.5D acrylic fiber temporary reference of 13700-14200 yuan / ton, although the price of raw acrylonitrile has declined significantly, acrylic fiber cost support weakened, but acrylic fiber plant production and marketing is not good, manufacturers accumulated inventory, factory prices continued stable price quotation, entered in March, although acrylic fiber demand side support is expected to increase, but the market operators are optimistic about the mentality of the limited, and cost support expectations are still insufficient. The fundamentals are hard to find good news. It is estimated that the price of acrylic fiber will still be down in March.

The Bureau of statistics released 28 national economic and social development bulletin on 2019. Preliminary accounting, annual GDP of 990865 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the first industry was 70467 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; the second industry added value of 386165 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%; third industrial added value of 534233 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The added value of the primary industry accounts for 7.1% of GDP, the second industry's added value is 39%, and the third industry's added value is 53.9%. The contribution rate of year-end final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 57.8%, the contribution rate of total capital formation is 31.2%, and the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services is 11%. GDP per capita is 70892 yuan, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year. Gross national income reached 988458 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. The energy consumption of the national gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 2.6% over the previous year. The total labour productivity was 115009 yuan / person, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year.

In February 29th, the working group of the Ministry of Commerce of China and the working group of the China Textiles Import and export chamber held talks with Cambodia Garment Association, Cambodia Footwear Association and Kampuchea Textile Association of Chinese Chamber of Commerce respectively.

Recently, the Haizhuqu District industrial and commercial bureau of Guangzhou issued the notice on continuing to co-ordinate the related work of resuming work and resuming production. According to the notice, the resumption of production in the textile business circle of Zhongda textile industry depends on the situation of epidemic prevention and control, and it can be prepared in an orderly way for the resumption of work and production. It is worth mentioning that the notice clearly guides the resumption of production and recovery of the Zhongda textile business circle. By filling in the information and mobile phone numbers, the mobile workers can connect the mobile phone with the base station with the help of the big data platform of the three operators, verify the journey within 30 days, and finally generate the corresponding healthy red / Green code. The thermal imaging temperature detection system must be installed before entering the business circle.

According to the Akesu daily, the Bureau of industry and Commerce indicated that after fully supporting and promoting all kinds of enterprises to resume work and resume production, as of February 25th, there were 123 reopening jobs, accounting for 67% of the industrial enterprises that could resume the work regulations, and 19 thousand and 100 workers who restarted, accounting for 43.1% of the normal employment. From all counties (cities), the total number of enterprises with large economic volume and large scale enterprises is relatively better, and Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size have returned to 71.3%. From the industry point of view, the number of reopening enterprises has been 53, accounting for 43%, textile and clothing 14, accounting for 11%, building materials metallurgy 8, accounting for 6%, strategic emerging industries 22, 17.8%, agricultural and sideline products processing 26, accounting for 21%.

According to a 24 day press report, the Ministry of Commerce and trade of Syria issued a ban on exporting all kinds of masks outside Syria. It is reported that the demand for masks has increased substantially in Syria recently, and prices have risen accordingly. Iran economic online February 26th reported. According to the Iran market adjustment working group's new crown virus requirement, the import tariff of masks dropped from 55% to 5%. Health products are included in the list of basic commodities for price control and anti hoarding.

After the abolition of import tariffs on raw cotton by the Pakistan government in January 2020, the textile industry has surged to full load production. In addition, Pakistan is gaining higher textile export orders. Pakistan's National Textile Mills Association (APTMA) said that Pakistan's textile industry is now working hard. If all goes well, the development of the textile industry will support the government's target export target of 240-250 billion dollars in the current fiscal year (July 2019 to June 2020). In addition, the export of Pakistan's textile products is on the rise, and the export of raw materials including cotton and yarn is on the decline. This is a positive development for Pakistan's economy. As China's textile production has dropped by 70-80% due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, international textile buyers have transferred their purchase orders to Pakistan.

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