Statistics Bureau Interpretation Of February PMI Data: Recovery Rate Will Drive Data To Improve.

When the National Bureau of statistics interprets the February PMI data,

The recovery rate will push data forward.

In February 29th, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. According to the latest data, in February 2020, China's purchasing managers' index was greatly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, down 14.3 percentage points from last month, and the non manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from last month. At the same time, the survey results show that with the CPC Central Committee and the State Council coordinating the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the recovery rate of enterprises is rising faster, and production and business activities are being restored orderly. As of February 25th, the total number of large and medium-sized enterprises in the national survey of purchasing managers was 78.9%, of which 85.6% were large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, said that in February, the PMI of the manufacturing industry dropped sharply from the previous month. There are 4 main characteristics:

First, industries that support basic livelihood are relatively small. Among them, chemical fiber, general equipment, special equipment, automobile and other industries PMI fell to less than 30%; to protect the basic needs of the people's livelihood of agricultural and sideline products processing, food and alcoholic beverages and refined tea industry PMI remained above 42%, providing health and health care in the medical and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry PMI was 39.7%, higher than the overall level of manufacturing industry, the impact is relatively small. Two, the new order index is smaller than the production index. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the new orders index of 15 industries, such as agricultural and sideline products processing, food and alcoholic beverage refining, tea and medicine, were higher than the production index, especially the new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing industry is still expanding. Three, the import and export pressure of manufacturing industry is increasing. Some investigation enterprises reflected that the situation of order cancellation and delayed delivery increased by the epidemic situation. Four, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises generally dropped.

In terms of service industry, there are 19 industries whose business activity index is in the contraction area in the 21 industries surveyed, but the financial business activity index is 50.1%, which continues to expand in the expansion area, and plays an important role in the prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development. It is worth noting that although the business activity index of Telecom and Internet software industry has dropped somewhat, but under the support of new formats and technologies such as cloud office, online education and telemedicine, it is obviously better than the overall level of the service industry, which is higher than the 13.2 and 11.3 percentage points of the business activity index of the service industry respectively. Demand for consumer goods, such as transportation, accommodation, catering, tourism and residential services, declined sharply, and business activity index dropped to below 20%. However, the civil engineering construction industry activity activity index is 51.8%, maintaining above the critical point, indicating that the relevant enterprises have confidence in the industry's resumption of development.

"In February, the composite PMI output index was 28.9%, down 24.1 percentage points from last month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed sharply. Manufacturing industry production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constituted the composite PMI output index, were 27.8% and 29.6% respectively. Zhao Qinghe said that although the outbreak of new crown pneumonia had a great impact on the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises in the short term, the epidemic was initially curbed, and the negative impact on production was gradually weakened. The recovery rate of enterprises rose faster and market confidence was steadily restored.

Zhao Qinghe said that the survey of purchasing managers showed that the recovery rate of large and medium enterprises will rise to 90.8% at the end of March, of which 94.7% of the manufacturing industry is up 11.9 and 9.1 percentage points respectively. Recently, a series of policies and measures, such as tax reduction, tax reduction, financial services, rent reduction, stable job subsidies, especially support for small and medium enterprises, will be implemented step by step, which will effectively relieve the difficulties brought by the epidemic to the production and operation of enterprises, further boost the confidence of enterprises and speed up the pace of enterprises' resumption and resumption of production. It is expected that China's purchasing managers' index will improve in March.