Global Economy Or Drag On Local Growth Is Hard To Sustain.

First, domestic cotton yarn spot prices rise, futures prices fall.

Domestic yarn spot prices rose slightly this week. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 20473 yuan / ton, compared with last week rose 8 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference 7191 yuan / ton, compared with last week to expand 161 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price 20803 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 535 yuan / ton, higher than spot 330 yuan / ton, the difference narrowed 543 yuan / ton last week.

In the face of the "epidemic test", all enterprises have worked hard. Many large textile enterprises send special cars to workers to go back to work, but the way for small businesses to return to work is "boundless". According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, the rate of resumption of Industrial Enterprises above designated size has gradually increased, of which Zhejiang has exceeded 90%, and Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, Liaoning, Guangdong and Jiangxi have exceeded 70%. The operating rate of SMEs is only close to 30%. Over time, the cash flow of small businesses is under pressure.

Two, international cotton yarn prices fall

(1) 32 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 20668 yuan / ton, down 12 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] expanded 20 yuan / ton to -195 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the average price of Vietnam port delivery was 20258 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the difference between China and Vietnam was 10 yuan / ton to 215 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 19756 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between China and India was 4 yuan / ton to 294 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 19346 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan increased by 4 yuan / ton to 704 yuan / ton last week.

(three) 10 rotor spinning

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 13380 yuan / ton, and the price difference between China and India was -145 yuan / ton, which remained stable for two weeks.

In the past week, ICE cotton futures prices have plummeted, the Global Multi Country epidemic, and the impact on cotton consumption and the postponed resumption of Chinese weaving enterprises have slowed down the quotation of cotton yarn outside Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan. Although India's combed yarn and combing Quotation have been stabilized as a whole, there is a lack of support for transaction and OE yarn price is running weak.

During the Spring Festival, the price of Vietnamese cotton yarn decreased significantly. According to the Vietnam cotton yarn Association, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports are mainly exported to areas outside China, and are not affected by China's epidemic. However, the raw materials of Vietnamese textile enterprises are mostly from China. The slow recovery of China's textile industry is unfavorable for Vietnamese enterprises to purchase raw materials, and indirectly affects the country's textile and clothing exports.

Three, polyester staple continued downward trend viscose staple fiber stopped rising and falling

This week, the national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 6516 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 32 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference narrowed 121 yuan / ton to 6766 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price 9600 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 18 yuan / ton, cotton sticky price difference narrowed 135 yuan / ton to 3682 yuan / ton last week.

Four, outlook for the future

(1) epidemic panic is spreading or dragging around the global economy.

Although the WHO said the peak of China's epidemic has passed, the number of confirmed cases in other countries has increased. In February 28th, WHO raised the global risk level of the "2019 coronavirus" epidemic from "high" to "very high". This is the first time that WHO has systematized its risk assessment methodology since 2012, and has assessed the global risk level of a case as "very high" for the first time. China's domestic risk level remains unchanged, and its negative impact on the global textile industry chain can not be ignored. Affected by the epidemic, some countries closely related to China's textile industry fail to maintain the normal operation of the industrial chain because of China's failure to supply. About 60% of the raw materials in Kampuchea's clothing and shoemaking industry are imported from China. Some of the garment factories and shoe factories will stop production for 1-2 months from the end of February due to insufficient raw materials. 10% of shoes and special footwear materials from India shoe manufacturer, China, are now interrupted by the epidemic. According to Wind data, ASEAN accounted for 13.6% of China's main import trading partners in 2019, 13.3% of the EU, 8.4% of Korea, 8.3% of Japan and Taiwan of China, and 5.9% of the United States. In addition, 58 countries have seen the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, and many countries have embark on a mutual embargo and border blockade. The global economic outlook is worrying.

(two) the local cloth price is up and the peak season of dyeing plant is coming.

It is reported that some factories are now in good working condition, and even in the capacity of their own efforts, the production of the plant has been launched at full capacity, and the price of local grey cloth has increased by 0.10-0.40 yuan / M. The only reason is that the coming of the peak season is too early for 4 main reasons:

1, the backlog of orders a year ago, in order to rush the delivery time, after the resumption of production is too concentrated, resulting in the recent dyeing mill cloth entry into the warehouse surge.

2, the price increase after a year is a grey market practice. After the price rises this year, it is still low in recent years.

3, most textile enterprises lack capacity, and now mainly sell inventory, to a certain extent, contributed to the price uplink;

4, the above situation is partial market, can not represent the overall market.

(three) follow up order is the key.

At present, the world has entered the epidemic prevention and control whirlpool. Chinese enterprises are facing the risk of subsequent orders and the lack of normal operation of the industrial chain. Although the number of newly diagnosed cases in China is declining, it is still at a critical stage of prevention and control.

[1] the difference is the difference between the yarn price and the yarn price.