The Impact Of The New Crown Epidemic On China'S Textile And Clothing Export And The Countermeasures

A sudden outbreak has had a great impact on various industries. Faced with this reality, how can enterprises seize opportunities and turn crises into business opportunities? In order to further understand and analyze the changes and difficulties encountered in the textile industry under the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation, and better anticipate the future trend of the industry, and understand the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on industry investment, production, consumption and exports, the journal has set up a "industry observation" column, and has soliciting contributions from readers, hoping that the support and bestows of readers' friends.

New crown epidemic on China's textile and clothing exports Influence and countermeasure

Wang Hua

Chief researcher of the "belt and road" international cooperation center of the textile industry of Donghua University

At present, with the gradual control of the epidemic situation, the national textile and garment enterprises are speeding up the resumption of production and production except for Hubei province. However, whether they are raw material prices, product inventory or transportation logistics and export orders, they have encountered unprecedented new problems and new difficulties.

What is the export market after the outbreak? Can it still appear as the export trend after the 2003 SARS and the year-round increase in the export volume of textile and clothing? This article tries to make an analysis to help the vast majority of textile and garment enterprises to understand the market changes and improve their contingency and adjustment capabilities.

Epidemic situation after 2020

Textile and garment export market faces severe challenges

According to the analysis of China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute, the export situation of China's textile industry is more severe due to the weakening of external demand and the increase of trade environment risk. According to China Customs data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2019 was 280 billion 700 million US dollars, down 1.5% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous year, but it was 0.8 percentage points higher than the three quarter of 2019. From the perspective of product mix, textile exports amounted to US $127 billion 250 million, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $153 billion 450 million, a decrease of 3.7% over the same period last year. From the perspective of market structure, exports to emerging markets performed better than traditional markets. In 2019, the amount of textiles and clothing exported to countries and regions along the belt and road grew by 3.7% over the same period in 2019, while the export volume for the US, Japan and the EU decreased by 6.6%, 4.6% and 4.4% respectively.

We can summarize the impact of SARS and the epidemic on the export of China's textile and clothing products in 2003.

The time of outbreak of the first, second outbreak, the speed and scope of spread of the epidemic are different. The impact of the epidemic is much greater than that of SARS on the economic and social sectors. Second, the export environment is different when the outbreak occurs. Under the Sino US trade friction in 2019, the US market is already the third place in China's export market, while Japan is the fourth place, but there are also outbreaks in Japan. Third, the basic conditions of textile and garment export are different. Sino US trade friction, China's textile and garment industry transfer overseas, the cost of production factors rise, the demographic dividend disappeared and so on. Therefore, in 2020, we will face the test of a more complex environment.

In addition, during the outbreak period in China, the United States tried to improve the US market access threshold. This will give rise to pressure on Chinese textile and garment exports. When competing in the US market, they will face competition from other developing countries that can enjoy government subsidies, and the textile and garment industry chain will shift to Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa. The next step is to focus on China's various industry subsidies and launch targeted trade surveys to further curb the competitiveness of related Chinese products in the US market. As foreign trade is squeezed, domestic demand may face a period of intense competition, so the supply side reform must keep pace with it.

Product development of textile and clothing and chemical fiber industry What's the inspiration?

China is a large textile manufacturing country and a large producer of chemical fiber. It has a complete industrial chain. Although the experience and emergency reserve of public health emergencies are insufficient, the "PP" is difficult to find and "one cloth is hard to find". But at present, China's mask production capacity has reached 116 million per day, and it is fully capable of ensuring public health and epidemic prevention needs. It can also be exported to other countries with outbreaks. But after the outbreak, we may have to ask: why can masks always be sold out?

In fact, we should notice that the small mask is a big business and the technology of the small mask is high. First, the market of Chinese masks is highly concentrated. From SARS, haze to the current epidemic situation, the mask market is rising with the deepening of public health awareness. Two is the mask technology content is high (materials, technology, standards). The respirator with strong protective function has high requirements for material adherence, filtration efficiency, impedance and die precision. Three, the brand awareness of masks is high. When brand awareness is established, it is also very difficult for consumers to change the existing consumption habits and replace the new ones. In other words, once consumers form consumer cognition, it is difficult to change other brands. Therefore, the market of post infection masks is bound to be fiercely competitive.

Another revelation we get is that the business logic of masks, protective clothing and sanitary textiles has changed. Judging from several major domestic and international epidemics, everything The market position of masks is high, because masks and protective clothing are included in the strategic material reserves of various countries. ? Two is Consumer health habits and awareness of epidemic prevention have been raised. Masks, disinfectant and sanitary textiles will slowly change from protective products to daily necessities. A huge market has formed, and industrial textiles will be promising. ? Three is The marketing mode has changed. SARS in 2003 has made Taobao, Jingdong and other platforms rise rapidly, and online consumption patterns have become more popular among people. In 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation also led to the emergence of a large number of knowledge paid people, the emergence of live goods and net red, which changed the one-way expression of original picture and text into two way entertainment expression of video and live broadcast. Therefore, we think that protective and sanitary textiles are new consumption demands under the background of big health. This industry is a sunrise industry for sustainable growth.

Current countermeasures and suggestions

Facing the 2020 epidemic crisis is the watershed of many enterprises. How can enterprises save themselves? How to find new opportunities for development in crisis? What changes have taken place in market consumption? The epidemic situation makes the external environment of business change completely. The business mode and business mode that enterprises are familiar with before the outbreak may not be suitable for the epidemic situation. Most enterprises need to upgrade and innovate in terms of bearing capacity, technological development capability and quick response capability. Even the industrial chain needs to be reconstructed. The epidemic tests not only the immunity of everyone, but also the immunity and quick response ability of an enterprise. 2020 is the year of full commercial 5G, and AI AI + big data + 5G + block chain will bring great changes to many industries. The centralization of distributed computing with various timeliness and agility will greatly enhance the efficiency of the whole society. The epidemic will be withering away and let the changes that can be completed in the next 3~5 years come across in a short time. This is a comprehensive physical examination of every enterprise and urges enterprises to make a comprehensive adjustment.

In the face of the re production and product mix adjustment under the epidemic situation, we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions for textile and garment enterprises:

First, at all levels of the local government level, we must implement a prudent monetary policy + a positive fiscal policy + a big reform and opening up, and reform as a breakthrough to help enterprises implement the policies of the state to deal with the epidemic. Now the central government's policy is available, but the key to the problem is to implement the credit policy of banks to enterprises. We should truly help enterprises and categorized the goblin to help enterprises. All localities should strengthen the docking with financial institutions, strictly implement the requirements of district classification, precise rework and re production, and promote the resumption of production and textile industry in an orderly way. We should optimize the way to reduce taxes and reduce fees, and shift from the current tax reduction pattern that is mainly aimed at VAT to reducing the social security rate and corporate income tax rate, enhancing the sense of enterprise acquisition, and really let the enterprises get tangible benefits and get out of the predicament. SMEs play an indispensable role in China's economy, especially in terms of employment. Local governments at all levels should attach great importance to steady employment, stable economy and stable export. We should understand and implement the policies of the central government and really help the small and medium-sized textile and garment enterprises to help the poor.

Second, at the enterprise level, we should grasp the opportunity of the transformation of the industrial chain from globalization to regionalization, make full use of the "one belt and one road" initiative, and lay a good layout for the capacity and order mechanism of enterprises at home and abroad. China's textile industry is also continuing to plan for the international production cooperation of textiles with the "one belt and one way" country. Israel, Jordan, Pakistan, Vietnam and Indonesia will play an important role in the future China oriented Asian textile industry chain. With the outbreak of Japan, Korea, the Middle East and Italy, China's textile and clothing exports, which are the most active and the largest volume of foreign trade, are bound to bear the brunt. Major epidemic will lead to changes in people's consumption concept. Textile and garment enterprises should grasp the needs of knitted underwear industry in the post epidemic period and the demand for sanitary textiles in the non-woven market. We should further develop our own brand, make full use of the current low interest loans of banks, develop intelligent manufacturing, and docking the industrial Internet and the Internet of things. Establish enterprises to respond quickly to global supply chain, industrial chain and value chain. In terms of scientific and technological innovation, the development and extension of key fiber new materials and intelligent manufacturing related technologies, and the expansion of new application fields of industrial textiles are still the focus of development. Therefore, enterprises should introduce and cultivate skilled personnel, product development talents and new mode of e-commerce marketing personnel, and constantly develop new technologies and functional new products.

Third, at present, the textile and garment market will need time to make a substantial improvement in the upstream and downstream markets, coupled with the spread of epidemics abroad, or will affect global consumption. In the short term, the market situation will not be able to support the growth of textile and clothing exports. However, there will be an explosive growth in the textiles for epidemic prevention. We must seize this favorable window period and promote export of masks, protective clothing and other sanitary and disinfectant textiles to enhance the global market share of China's industrial textiles and make up for the shortfall of exports of other textile and garment exports, so that the export data of the whole year will remain unchanged from 2019. We need not only "the mountains and rivers, the wind and the moon", but also the "green hills together with the rain and clouds, and the moon is the two country." Investment has the help of the central bank. China will rely on the manufacturing capacity of the whole industrial chain and the consumption of large domestic demand. The new economic growth point will appear in the second half of the year. In East Asia, China, Japan and South Korea will forge closer ties through the outbreak of disease, and the situation in East Asia will change unprecedentedly. The China Japan Korea free trade zone is likely to be established in the second half of this year.

General secretary Xi Jinping said: "the Chinese nation is a nation that is more and more brave, and its resilience is unthinkable. Through this baptism of major epidemics, China will be able to stand at a new historical starting point. It is also believed that some enterprises will take a new step, because the final height of a person or enterprise is not the starting point, but the turning point, because opportunities are at the turning point. Thousands of sails on the side of the sunken boat. Let's hand in hand and shoulder together to welcome the bright future.

Wang Hua / Wen