The Target Price Of 18600 Yuan / Ton Cotton Will Remain Unchanged For Three Years. How Can Zheng Cotton Open Today?

Yesterday afternoon, the national development and Reform Commission announced the state's policy of cotton target price in Xinjiang. In order to implement the spirit of the Central Document No. 1 in 2020 and approved by the State Council, the cotton target price policy was perfected in Xinjiang from 2020. The target price level was 18600 yuan per ton, and was evaluated every three years. According to the assessment results, the target price level was adjusted according to the situation.

The recent fluctuations in the spot price of cotton at home and abroad attracted the attention of the market. Zheng cotton rose from the bottom in March 24th to the end of March 25th and continued to oscillate in March 26th. When investors are trying to predict how cotton will run today, the target price of 18600 yuan per ton of cotton will remain unchanged for three years. What is the trend of Zheng cotton opening today?

1. countries improve Xinjiang cotton target price policy

In 2017-2019 years, the state deepened cotton target price reform in Xinjiang, and the target price of cotton determined in three years was 18600 yuan / ton. Judging from the effect of the cotton target price policy implemented in Xinjiang in the past three years, the effectiveness of the reform has continued to show, while protecting the benefits of cotton producers, it will further play the role of the market mechanism and help push forward the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture and the development of the whole cotton industry chain in Xinjiang. It will play an important role in promoting the development of Xinjiang's economic and social stability. Therefore, in order to implement the spirit of the Central Document No. 1 in 2020 and approved by the State Council, the target price policy of cotton in Xinjiang has been perfected in 2020. The target price level is 18600 yuan per ton, which is evaluated every three years. According to the assessment results, the target price level is adjusted according to the situation.

At present, the cotton production areas in Xinjiang and the mainland are in the critical period of spring sowing. The cotton price expectation determines the farmers' intention to plant cotton and the effect of the new crown pneumonia. At this time, the hearts of the vast majority of cotton farmers are bottomless. The timely announcement and improvement of Xinjiang's cotton target price policy has been a reassurance for cotton farmers. At least, the cotton planting area in China will not be substantially reduced in the new year.

Wu FA Xin, chief strategist of Shanghai yarn Bao Technology Co., Ltd. said that cotton is an important strategic material. The problem of clothing and eating of 1 billion 400 million of our population should be grasped in the hands of our Chinese people and can not be pinched by foreign suppliers at the critical moment. Therefore, we should continue to use "subsidy" to encourage farmers to grow cotton and keep the basic cotton growing area in the main cotton producing area. It helps to stabilize and protect China's "cotton safety".

"From the price of 18600 yuan / ton, the price is the same as the previous three years, which has a positive effect on stabilizing the cotton price continuity. At the same time, it also gives a positive signal, that is, China's cotton price reform will go out of a road with" Chinese characteristics "according to its own conditions according to the characteristics of our own market. Wu FA Xin said, it can be expected that due to the steady output and price of the country, the supply of cotton market in the next 3 years is expected to be sufficient, and price fluctuation is expected to be stable, which will play a positive role in the balanced development of the upstream and downstream industries of cotton. It is only hoped that the quality of cotton will need to be further improved on the basis of the previous 3 years to meet the needs of downstream spinning mills for the production of high-grade textiles.

Wu Faxin believes that in the actual operation of the subsidy policy, there is another key to giving the subsidy to cotton farmers, which needs more efficiency and convenience, so as to benefit the cotton farmers' expenditure needs, so as to create a virtuous circle of the whole cotton industry. From the time and content of the cotton subsidy policy, this year, the subsidy policy may oscillate the price on the market in the short term. But from a long term perspective, it will be conducive to the long-term stability and healthy and healthy development of China's cotton industry and the "cotton textile" upstream and downstream industry chain.

2. what are the key factors determining the rise and fall of cotton prices?

"Zheng cotton main 2005 contract yesterday closed at 10650 yuan / ton, compared with Xinjiang cotton target price 18600 yuan / ton compared to 8000 yuan / ton difference, today's opening cotton price is not allowed to limit?" After the announcement of the state's policy of improving cotton prices in Xinjiang, many investors put forward their own views on investors who do not know much about the operation mechanism of China's cotton market. In fact, the state's policy of improving cotton prices in Xinjiang is mainly related to cotton farmers, while the direct impact on cotton prices is relatively small. The target price is mainly to protect farmers' income from cotton planting, which is not related to the price fluctuation of cotton market, but it will affect the market psychology.

Some analysts believe that after the cotton price has dropped to a historical low price area, it will be inappropriate to chase large amounts of space. There are two main reasons:

First, the downstream industries of cotton have encountered unprecedented difficulties and the demand for short-term improvement is hard to see. The main reason is that the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China has led to the "instant collapse" of orders from downstream industries. Wu FA Xin said that according to the relevant market institutions statistics, as of March 26th, the cotton textile comprehensive start up rate of 52.97%, the ring ratio fell 2.18 percentage points. The average starting rate of air-jet looms is 55.24%, a decrease of 2 percentage points. Weaving mills across the country have indicated to varying degrees that customers are advised to postpone delivery or to stop orders directly. Some enterprises consider switching to the domestic market. If there is still no sign of improvement, they will consider stopping work in a disadvantage environment. The average starting rate of the circular machine is 50.69%, and the ratio of the ring is reduced by 1.87 percentage points. As the finished product inventory is unsalable, the pressure of funds is increasing.

Recently, with the continuous spread and spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in foreign countries, China's clothing export and other foreign trade enterprises or industries have encountered many problems. In Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other textile enterprises concentrated research area, we can hear all kinds of adverse business operations such as order cancellation, order suspension and so on. Some executives believe that if the new crown pneumonia outbreak in June is not yet over, there will be no knowing how many enterprises will be unable to sustain it. At present, the biggest problems facing domestic garment factories, yarn factories and fabric factories have changed from "worry back to work" to "worry orders".

It is understood that as Europe and the United States become the new crown pneumonia epidemic disaster area, China's foreign trade market has changed 180 degrees. In 1-2, the new crown pneumonia in China was serious and many factories were unable to produce. At that time, overseas customers hurried to order. Now the consumer market in Europe and the United States is in the doldrums, and the demand customers have become cautious. They have cancelled and delayed orders for 3-6 months. After June, the market is hard to judge.

The information released by the China Cotton Association shows that since March, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been curbed in China, but it has been spreading rapidly worldwide. The epidemic in Italy, Germany and the United States has become increasingly serious, making the market uneasy and the financial market turbulent. With the increasing level of control and epidemic of foreign countries, the textile orders in foreign countries in China are largely unsubscribed, disrupting the industry's newly restored production rhythm. Some enterprises believe that the current Multi Country measures may lead to unnecessary panic among some foreign consumer groups and worry about future export trade. For this situation, we must realize that epidemic situation is temporary and phased, and will not change the general trend of China's economic quality development, nor will it change the trend of high quality development of China's foreign trade. The industry must strengthen confidence and grasp the development opportunities in the crisis.

It is also understood that considering the current development trend of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the world, especially the high risk of foreign epidemic input, the 127th spring Canton Fair will not be held as scheduled in April 15th. Next, Guangdong will comprehensively assess the epidemic situation and actively make recommendations to relevant state departments.

In addition, us heavy unemployment data surged to nearly 5 times. Last night, the high-profile unemployment claims data were weighed out. In early March 21st, the number of unemployed Americans was 3 million 283 thousand, which was expected to be 1 million 700 thousand, with a value of 281 thousand. This is the first time in the history of the first million unemployment claims data, almost the equivalent of 2% of the United States employment population, previously recorded as 695 thousand of the world economic crisis in 1982, the data is far more than 667 thousand of the financial crisis. This week, the number of unemployed Americans has reached 9.7 times the peak of the stock market crash in 1987, reaching 6.9 times the peak of the Internet bubble period, reaching 4.9 times the peak of the 2008 financial crisis.

Second, in the long run, there is a supply gap in China's cotton market, which will lead to a close link between domestic cotton prices and the international market trend. Investors should always pay attention to the change of international cotton market.

The General Administration of Customs of China issued a notice yesterday on adjusting the regulatory mode of imported cotton. In order to further promote the reform of the "discharge tube" and further improve the port business environment and enhance the level of trade facilitation, the General Administration of Customs has decided to optimize the inspection and supervision methods of imported cotton quality. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows: first, the current customs inspection of imported cotton by batch sampling shall be carried out according to the application of the enterprise; if necessary, the customs may carry out supervision and inspection. The two is that the importing cotton consignee or agent needs the cotton quality certificate issued by the customs to apply to the customs. The customs will conduct spot sampling, laboratory testing and certificate of quality after carrying out on-site inspection and Quarantine of imported cotton. Three, the importing cotton consignee or agent does not need to issue the cotton quality certificate. The customs directly release the imported cotton after carrying out on-site inspection and quarantine. It will come into effect on April 5, 2020.