Inventory Backlog Up To Million Tons Of Polyester Enterprises To Borrow Derivatives To Risk Their Troubles

Affected by the epidemic, all industrial chains are facing different degrees of difficulty. A few days ago, "Securities Daily" reporter interviewed a number of enterprises learned that the polyester industry chain is experiencing the most cold "cold winter" in recent years, difficult to resume work, logistics is not smooth, inventory backlog, cash flow inconvenience and other difficulties, are continuing to "pressure" to enterprises; in February, the PTA industry as a whole stock up to a million tons, most enterprises are facing difficulties in production and operation. However, enterprises that borrow derivatives for risk management are relatively optimistic.

Xu Jien, deputy general manager of Yisheng petrochemical PTA sales center, told the Securities Daily reporter that during the epidemic period, enterprises using futures hedging had basically solved the problem of sales terminals and effectively solved the risk of high inventory. "The company uses derivatives to conduct risk management, through hedging, hedging, processing fees, arbitrage and other strategies to effectively solve the risk of inventory accumulation, cost rise and base fluctuation."

Such factors as poor logistics, overstock, and inability to turn capital have become an unavoidable problem for polyester industry during the epidemic. In response to these problems, the Securities Daily reporters learned that in addition to Hubei Province, 2 months later, enterprise production just came to an inflection point. Even so, the polyester industry's utilization rate is still less than 60%.

During the epidemic period, the most serious problem was logistics, and the logistics problem was mainly in the "human" aspect. Xu Jien told reporters that although the current logistics problem has basically been solved, there is no transportation problem in the country, but there may still be some impact on the resumption of work. The difficulties faced by enterprises are obvious in the first two months of this year, and inventory accumulation is also an important problem.

It is understood that due to the traditional Spring Festival is a low consumption season of polyester industry, production enterprises generally stocked during the Spring Festival and after sales, but this year because of the epidemic factors, the upstream production enterprises have higher inventory, especially in February. However, the enterprises at the downstream end of the Spring Festival can not get back to work after the Spring Festival, and the whole industry chain can not buy raw materials, resulting in no inventory in the downstream. At the same time, the contradiction between the upstream and downstream industries leads to the shortage of cash flow, and the capital problem has finally become a big problem for enterprises.

"Under normal circumstances, PTA and polyester factories are continuous production. Enterprises will lose millions of yuan when they stop production, so they will maintain production under normal conditions." Xu Jien said that under the influence of the epidemic, the sales of PTA enterprises had been partially affected. However, as several large PTA manufacturers in China relied on the advantages of integration from oil refining to polyester production, the operating rate of the PTA industry in February did not change very much. It is also precisely because of this factor that the accumulation of high deposits is quite obvious after the Spring Festival.

He said, according to the February inspection and maintenance situation, the total output of polyester industry is about 3 million 600 thousand tons in that month. Therefore, the pressure of PTA supply and demand storage has increased dramatically, and the monthly storage volume has expanded to 1 million tons, creating a record high of single month storage.

At the same time, Xu Ji en also said that the downstream side also showed very optimistic situation, which is manifested in the following aspects: first, the low utilization rate of weaving enterprises to the freezing point; two, the low enthusiasm of weaving enterprises; three, the stock of polyester products has reached a new high in recent years; four, the polyester load has reached a new low. In addition, PTA social inventories also set a new record in synchronization. PTA load followed the processing fee fluctuation, resulting in a larger decline in the price of PTA products.

Many enterprises in the PTA industry chain are almost unprepared for the outbreak. Under the pressure of uncertainty, some enterprises have formulated their own business strategies to overcome the difficulties according to their internal and external environment.

Some people in the industry say that polyester industry chain enterprises also focus their attention on futures market and seek diversified solutions in addition to controlling risks in terms of policies, production regulation, optimizing inventory, reducing operating costs and capital flow. PTA enterprises, polyester factories, and related traders use futures to hedge, and use futures derivatives such as processing fee maintenance, risk free arbitrage, etc., to solve the problems of sales decline and high inventory.

It is understood that Yisheng Petrochemical is one of the enterprises that use derivatives to realize risk management. Through multiple hedging schemes, the company has achieved good results in terms of digestion, inventory reduction, cost reduction and lock in revenue.

"For the impact of the epidemic and crude oil slump, the company hedged ahead of PTA futures to set up positions." Xu Jien said, first of all, the hedging of commodity prices, the company choose to build corresponding blank list on futures, lock the selling price of PTA, and in the future, when the spot price transaction is sold, it is necessary to complete the transaction according to the reasonable market discount and increase the risk of fluctuation of absolute price to the basis risk, greatly reducing the risk of stock depreciation caused by price fluctuation. 。