A Few People Are Happy And Worried. Cotton Prices Plummeted, Yarn Prices Continued To Drop, Weaving People Weep No Tears!

At present, due to the global spread of the epidemic, the export orders or cancellation or suspension of the textile and garment industry are only small quantities in the production, dyeing orders are insufficient, demand is shrinking, and supply is also a problem. Recently, shipments of cotton products have dropped significantly, prices have come down in a comprehensive way and there is much room for negotiation. Textile mills are not open enough, and some factories and foreign trade companies have just returned to work.

"Just woke up in spring and fell to the winter."

Notice of downtime in garment factories: Customers will suspend all orders and leave for 4 months.

A notice of lockout in a garment factory has burst the circle of friends.

Now, after tough epidemics, many industries in China are slowly returning to work, and even large shopping malls and catering and service industries are starting to start. However, an industry has gone through a lot of hard work to get back to work, but once again suffered a fatal blow.

This industry is the foreign trade industry, especially the textile and garment industry with the largest export proportion. Many factories have been cancelled, and the foreign trade industry has been completely cold.

In March 18th, the more than 1200 largest toy manufacturer, the toy giant, was declared closed due to the cancellation of orders in Europe and the United States.

In March 21st, a well-known brand Cosonic headset maker, Jiahe electronics, with 4000 employees, announced that all workers were paid or retreated because of the epidemic.

In March 21st, a large manufacturing enterprise in Dongguan was forced to announce a three - month break because of the cancellation of orders from the largest customer FOSSIL.

Affected by the outbreak of the global epidemic, the famous enterprises such as Foxconn, the Great Wall, the Great Wall, Shenzhen, Germany, Tongxing, Si Camp, Kai Yue, South Depp, en Si Mai and BYD have reduced or stopped their employment.

Urgent notice: all the factories in Foxconn mainland (Langfang, Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Yantai, Qinhuangdao, etc.) all stopped their recruitment.

Textile and garment industry is going through a severe winter.

Primark, the largest fashion retailer in the UK, cancelled all orders.

On March 22nd, the famous British parity fashion chain brand Primark has cancelled orders for all suppliers that have not yet been delivered, which stipulates force majeure clauses in the contract and relies on force majeure clauses to cancel orders.

Primark has 40% of its products from China, and it is also the largest fashion retailer in the UK market. Just a month ago, Primark was worried that the Chinese epidemic would affect their supply chain and plan to find alternative suppliers in Bangladesh, Kampuchea, Vietnam, Turkey and Eastern Europe.

After the outbreak of the British epidemic, the group announced that it was expected to close its Primark20% stores under the influence of health events, which now account for 30% of Primark's sales and expect that these stores will have a 190 million impact on sales in the next four weeks.

Top Shop parent Group Arcadia freeze payment to suppliers

Arcadia Group, a fashion retail group with Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge, Dorothy Perkins, Evans and Burton, has announced that it temporarily closed all stores in the UK and Ireland and froze payments to suppliers.

Peacocks cancel all orders before June 20th

Peacocks, a UK fashion brand, said the epidemic had reduced its store traffic by 50%. They have informed suppliers to cancel all unfinished orders in the spring of 2020. For the goods received after March 16th, Peacocks will provide the supplier with three solutions: one is to wait until all the stocks are sold, then the payment is made; the two is the 50 percent off payment; and the three is the refund. A spokesman for Peacocks said this was an extreme move in extreme cases.

New Look halt all production

New Look, the UK's fast fashion brand, has closed all its stores in the UK and Ireland, and has halted production and encouraged employees to take unpaid leave.

Debenhams deferred payment for one month

Debenhams, a well-known British department store, wrote a letter to the supplier requesting support to extend the payment period of all suppliers for 30 days. The department store has closed 22 stores in recent months and plans to close another 28 next year. It has applied for "rent holidays" to cope with the impact of the new coronavirus.

"I am a garment foreign trade. I haven't been back for a long time. Now I am faced with the pain of no order, and I don't know when the epidemic will end."

Overseas outbreaks were suddenly out of control, and the economy began to stop for an instant. The momentum of China's foreign trade enterprises has just been restored, and has been pressed by overseas epidemic.

The outbreak of new crown pneumonia is spreading around the world, and more than 160 countries and regions have confirmed cases. Up to April 1st 07:22 in Beijing, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has exceeded 850 thousand cases. At present, 856376 cases have been diagnosed and 42087 cases have died. The total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States has been broken up in 180 thousand cases, and the number of confirmed cases is the largest in the world, reaching 187280 cases.

The biggest hit overseas is the domestic textile industry. The textile factories specializing in export receive a large number of overseas cancellation orders every day.

"ADI and Nike in Canada are closed."

"I have an order for JCP, and I am sending an email today to inform us of the suspension."

"I was ordered to withdraw 300 thousand meters yesterday, and the customers called for a moratorium. They were all on board production. How to stop? Now it is really not done. It's not done. It's not a mess."

...

The boss is worried that the staff are more worried and affected by the epidemic. Overseas businessmen can only postpone the delivery of the order that has been paid, and cancel the order without payment, and there is no new order. A large number of foreign trade workers began to complain:

"The foreign trade is going to be cool. Today, the manager said several large US clients would cancel the order, and the company would not go bankrupt." I thought I could work hard this year. "

"The most worrying thing is still happening. American customers are beginning to cancel orders. They can not be postponed. Most of the orders are gone. Is the situation so grim?"

"In the morning, they received messages from Europe and the United States, and the boss came to an emergency meeting to cancel all orders from Europe and the United States. It was horrible to stop taking orders. I feel that the European and American epidemic is going on like this, and the foreign trade industry has been seized."

No matter whether the order is cancelled or reduced, the days of these enterprises are rather bitter. Most of them are labor-intensive industries. Now the labor cost is decreasing, and many enterprises are forced to "take a vacation" to reduce their operating costs. As for when the holiday is coming, it may be two or three months or longer. All this depends on the effect of global epidemic prevention and control and the degree of economic recovery.

If the employee voluntarily proposes to leave, the salary can also be released until the end of March this year, according to the actual days.

"We are going to have a holiday!" A block driver reluctantly told Xiaobian, "today's day shift, we have a holiday, the notice has been down."

The notice reads:

Due to serious epidemics abroad, the port is closed, the foreign trade order is cancelled, and today the day shift begins to take a few days off.

Because orders in printing and dyeing factories are reduced.

Many enterprises began to self rescue mode.

Encourage employees to take a subsidy vacation.

When to start is unknown.

Four Asian countries are locked in a crisis of textile production.

It is reported that many small and medium-sized textile mills have been shut down from Vietnam to India to Central America. Textile mills refused to sell cotton, cotton manufacturers refused to cotton ginning plants, cotton mills again refused cotton farmers, cotton consumption decline is the whole textile industry chain from bottom to top conduction, Domino dominating the effect of the market embarrassed burden.

With the escalation of the global epidemic, European and American brands and retailers have begun to suspend or cancel orders and shipments. Manufacturing bases such as India, Pakistan, Turkey and Bangladesh are in deep trouble. At present, all four countries have entered the blockade, and textile production has been temporarily suspended.

Turkey It is a strong growth point of cotton consumption outside China. The export of textiles and garments in 2020 is expected to reach US $29 billion. Cotton consumption in this year is estimated to be 1 million 589 thousand tons, the fourth largest consumer in the world. At present, the cotton trade in the country has basically stopped. There are still a large number of signed cotton (about 150 thousand tons across the road) and Brazil cotton (4-12 months delivery) without shipment.

Pakistan A three week blockade has been launched, and textile production and consumption have all stopped. Without considering the epidemic situation, cotton consumption in Pakistan this year is 2 million 350 thousand tons. Pakistan is an important source of supply for fast fashion in the US and the world. Before the outbreak, factories were loaded at full capacity. Now many large brands and retailers have cancelled orders, resulting in the loss of wages for some small factories.

The People's Republic of Bangladesh It is the largest buyer of West Africa cotton and India cotton, and clothing exports in 2020 are expected to reach US $33 billion. But with the outbreak of the epidemic, as of March 25th, 2 billion 580 million US dollars of export orders were cancelled, more than half of them were in Europe. The cancellation of orders will continue to increase in the short term, and the factory's failure to pay wages will lead to unemployment.

India Three weeks from March 25th, the huge labor force will not be relied on. The field operations of cotton farmers can not be carried out. Cotton processing will stop and cotton exports will be cancelled or postponed. This year's cotton planting may be postponed. Domestic consumption is expected to be reduced by at least 2 million 500 thousand bales.

Raw material Market

It is understood that the price of raw materials has generally declined recently. Although the price of chemical fiber is larger than that of cotton, it is not easy for the spinning enterprises to turn out the purified yarns because of the different equipment used, but the proportion of blended yarn is increased appropriately. At present, the main problems facing spinning enterprises are increasing inventories and insufficient orders. There are textile enterprises that have not yet adjusted their start-up capacity in overseas branches, but they have begun implementing the policy of one day off a week.

Last week, the national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price fell below 6000 yuan integer pass to 5736 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 292 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference narrowed 616 yuan / ton to 5570 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton The average price of VS (mainstream viscose staple) is 9280 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference of cotton sticky is reduced by 888 yuan / ton to 2026 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Viscose staple fiber prices are weak, factory orders are reduced, inventory remains high, and more prices are being sought for orders, but downstream spinning is not performing well, and short term volume is expected to remain low. At present, the price of mid end viscose staple fiber is 9000-9100 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end viscose staple fiber is 9400-9500 yuan / ton.

Fujian polyester staple fiber prices continue to decline, the general atmosphere of the transaction, 1.4D direct spinning quotation of 5400-5500 yuan / ton short distance to deliver, real single discount a single talk. The price of polyester staple fiber in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the wait-and-see mentality was thicker. 1.4D talked about it in half light or in the vicinity of 5400-5700 yuan / ton.

Yarn Market

Last week, the yarn market was dull. At present, the supply of cotton yarn market is much greater than demand. The spinning enterprises are not satisfied with orders, all kinds of prices are down, money is hard to collect, there is a risk of taking orders, production cuts or holidays will become the textile market in April.

This week, domestic yarn futures and spot prices continued to expand, and the biggest decline in last week was once again refreshed. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price fell below 20 thousand yuan integer pass to 19901 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 526 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference 8595 yuan / ton, compared with last week expanded 382 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price down to 17830 yuan / ton, compared with last week, a sharp decline of 1287 yuan / ton, less than the spot 2071 yuan / ton, the difference narrowed 761 yuan / ton last week.

International cotton yarn prices are down more than 100 yuan.

According to Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong and other places of cotton yarn traders, recently imported cotton yarn inquiry, sales are slack. Due to the large port inventory, the pressure of funds, plus the volume of shipment and delivery in 3/4 months, traders in Foshan, Shaoxing, Changzhou and other textile markets have recently sold C8S-C16S siro spinning at a low price to ease the pressure of cash flow. In addition, several cotton mills in Vietnam said that since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia and the depreciation of the renminbi, some varieties have been "priced free from market" since February, and inventories have continued to increase.

(1) 32 cotton yarn

Last week, the average delivery price of India port was 20380 yuan / ton, down 174 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India decreased 352 yuan / ton to -479 yuan / ton last week. The average price of Vietnam port delivery was 20032 yuan / ton, down 158 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Vietnam narrowed 368 yuan / ton to -131 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

Last week, the average delivery price of India port was 19518 yuan / ton, down 156 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between China and India was 2 yuan / ton to 422 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 19096 yuan / ton, down 168 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan increased by 14 yuan / ton to 844 yuan / ton last week.

Grey fabric Market

Orders have been significantly reduced recently due to the outbreak of the epidemic. Orders for withdrawal or delay have occurred frequently. At present, all weaving factories have holiday plans, and the machines are mainly supported by conventional varieties, and the shipment is slow.

Data show that the typical "all cotton grey cloth" 63 "40*40 133*72" price was first cut in 2020, the average price last week was 8.26 yuan / m, down 0.04 yuan / m compared with last week.

China's economy has been deeply integrated into the global industrial chain supply chain, forming a globalized pattern of "you have me and I have you", especially with some key epidemic areas. With the further spread of the international epidemic situation, the situation of China's foreign trade import and export is likely to deteriorate further. Our country will enhance the stability of the supply chain of the global industrial chain through the strong chain and strong chain of key industries such as automobiles and electronics, and intensify the supply of raw materials to the international market.

According to the analysis of relevant agencies, the future of exports in the three carriages will be most affected by the global epidemic and the recession in Europe and the United States. Residents' consumption may still be a bit of a lingering fear of clustering activities, so investment has become the most important means. Among the three components of investment, manufacturing investment is largely related to exports, and real estate investment is mainly stable, so infrastructure investment has become the most important means. The conference of relevant institutions in China gave a clear policy tone and signal, that is, to expand domestic demand and start a "new" infrastructure.

How should enterprises respond?

(I) the world economic slowdown is expected to increase. G20 will start 5 trillion dollars to boost the economy.

With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic across the globe, pressure on major economies is rising. Governments are also adopting stimulus measures to fight epidemics.

In January 2020, the world economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund showed that the real economic growth rate in 2019 was 2.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year, and by 2.5 percentage points compared with the world economic growth in 2010. In March 27th, the Statistics Bureau of China showed that in 2020 1-2, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size dropped by 38.3% compared with the same period last year, and the profit of textile industry dropped by 59.3%.

In the context of the global economic slowdown, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has increased the risk of downside of the world economy. In March 25th, WTO predicted that economic recession and unemployment would be more serious than the global financial crisis 12 years ago, and trade is expected to decline sharply.

G20 will launch a $5 trillion economic boost plan to respond to the negative effects of the epidemic on the global social, economic and financial sectors, and will boost market sentiment.

Interest rate cuts and quantitative easing at the monetary policy level are the core of multinational economic response measures. The first step is to continue to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve has announced another 100 basis points to cut interest rates again, and the benchmark interest rate has dropped to ultra-low interest rates ranging from 0% to 0.25%. Following the US, central banks in developed economies, including South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom, also lowered their benchmark interest rates. Plus the interest rate policy space of the Central Bank of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the main developed economies, has been depleted. Emerging economies are no exception, and central banks such as Philippines, South Africa and Malaysia announced their interest rate cuts in March 19th.

(two) enterprises plan to adjust the ratio of domestic and foreign trade to prevent the phenomenon of low price competition in the market.

Affected by the oil price war, the price of chemical fiber has dropped sharply. Under the ICE futures and Zheng Mianpin innovation low, the spot price of lint has been continuously lowered. Although the decline in raw material prices can reduce the cost of spinning, it is not easy for spinning enterprises.

Main reasons: everything Since the end of 2019, the price of cloth has been dropping again and again. Today's March is different from previous years. Grey fabric enterprises are constantly lowering their prices and selling goods, including the best silk imitation before sales. Two is Enterprise inventory slowly increased, new single shortage, cash flow is tight; three is affected by foreign epidemic situation, external single reduction, part of the external single production enterprises plan to adjust the proportion of domestic and foreign trade.

Therefore, in the late stage, some enterprises should be prevented from transferring foreign trade to domestic trade.

(three) pay attention to consumption habits and consumption demand which are changed by the epidemic.

Behavioral psychology research shows that the formation and consolidation of people's new habits or ideas takes at least 21 days, which is called the twenty-one day effect or the twenty-one day rule. The epidemic has inadvertently changed the original habits of different generations. Affected by the epidemic, people reduce their home shopping, and more and more consumer behavior is solved through the Internet. As time goes on, consumers' habit of consuming through the Internet is likely to be gradually stereotyped.

Although the closure of physical stores has a great impact on the sales of textile and clothing, active businesses have begun to develop with the help of the Internet platform. In March 14th, Dongguan's 2000 woolen weaving enterprises took the lead in opening up live exhibition hall with the help of the electronic business platform. At the same time, the epidemic or people's concern for health will increase the consumption of sportswear and comfort clothing.

(four) overseas orders have been cancelled? Please check these suggestions.

These circumstances do not recommend receipt.

1, no deposit, no proposal.

If there is no deposit, it is not recommended to take orders. Otherwise, the cancellation or delay of a relaxed customer will result in the accumulation of raw, semi-finished products and finished products, and the stock will increase, bringing about a passive situation. If you want to support customers, you can try to take reliable insurance and transfer risks.

2, the original deposit, increase the share of the deposit, of course, the best of the whole.

Secure more orders for your orders, and do not rush to take orders due to lack of orders, otherwise the outcome will be the same as in the first article.

3. L / C payment is not recommended.

The sixth revision of the uniform customs and Practice for Documentary Credits (UCP600): thirty-sixth, force majeure, the bank is not responsible for the consequences of natural disasters, riots, riots, rebellions, wars, terrorist acts or any interruption of business caused by any strike, stoppage or any other reason which it is unable to control. When a bank is resumed, it will no longer undertake to negotiate or negotiate a letter of credit which has expired within the period of business interruption.

The new crown pneumonia is a force majeure, so be careful and try to avoid some people taking the opportunity to fish in troubled waters and do not want to pay the balance.

Communicate with customers timely and keep records.

1, the order has been reconfirmed with the customer.

Reconfirm the contract and avoid the customer's introduction of "force majeure" claim for breach of contract.

2, the order has been shipped and has arrived, to rush the money.

3, conduct comprehensive assessments of customers and communicate in a timely manner.

Accurately grasp the customer's ability to perform, fulfill their wishes and resist risks. Combing the risk of stock affected by the epidemic under the key country, we should pay close attention to the state of the goods transported and deal with the possible derogation of the customs ban that has been shipped, and arrange the delivery time for the goods that are not shipped, so as to cope with the possible risk of rejection or default. Keep good records of communication with customers, such as correspondence, WeChat chat, etc., to provide references for later claims.

4, maintain good communication with customers.

Do not do the necessary tracking work because there is no order in a short time.

Attention should be paid to signing contracts.

The two contract should be formal: one is the export contract, the other is the procurement contract.

Purchase contract, ask Chinese lawyer to draft optimization, export contract, try to find the lawyer in the client country to optimize. We should try to avoid or reduce the risk of uncertainty caused by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia through force majeure and property reservation provisions.