Analysis Of Foreign Trade Index In March: Epidemic Situation Is Rampant Around The World.

In March 2020, the foreign trade prosperity index closed at 724.82 points, down 10.32%, down 3.19% compared with the same period last year. The foreign trade price index closed at 168.47 points, down 0.88%, rose 7.26% compared with the same period last year, and the confidence index of foreign trade closed at 890.03 points, decreasing by 22.73%.

In March, the export volume of textiles and clothing in Keqiao District of Shaoxing city decreased significantly, and textile exports showed a downward trend. Overseas epidemics are still spreading rapidly. Under this background, many countries abroad have announced "sealing up the country" and "sealing the city" to stop the spread of the epidemic. These policies have directly led to the interruption of production, logistics and transportation of many factories, and the global industrial chain has encountered enormous challenges. The United States, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and other countries are most serious. These areas and ours are the main places of import and export of textile trade. It is understood that the recent cancellation of orders due to the epidemic is really a lot, especially foreign trade enterprises. The 20200325 phase of the foreign trade prosperity index fell, and the foreign trade price index fell.

1. The overseas market has dropped significantly, and the foreign trade prosperity index has fallen.

In March, the prosperity index of foreign textile enterprises in Keqiao District of Shaoxing city decreased, although the new crown pneumonia has been basically controlled, but the overseas situation is obviously out of control. In Europe and America, the cities, roads and travel bans, which were originally ignored by others, were quietly picked up. They began to be implemented step by step. The volume of newly added volume and export volume of foreign trade enterprises has decreased. Among them: the foreign trade prosperity index of chemical fiber filament fabrics decreased by 0.28%; the foreign trade prosperity index of embroidery category decreased by 25.77%; the daily textile index of household textile fabrics decreased by 33.35%; the curtain foreign trade prosperity index decreased by 21.75%; the foreign trade prosperity index of soaked, coated and coated textiles decreased by 23.49%, and the index of stimulating foreign trade prosperity declined.

1, the "order cancellation" increased significantly. Many countries took the policy of "sealing the country" and "sealing the city", which led to the cancellation or postponed orders of overseas customers. The textile circles cried: "to change the sky! Orders for millions of meters and thousands of tons have been cancelled!" "2 big single cancellations from Europe and the United States", "4500 tons of knitted fabric orders have been cancelled", "a dyeing factory has more than 900 million orders to be cancelled"... "Order cancellation" has become the key word in the textile market at present, especially the various foreign trade orders are being cancelled, and some are on the way of cancellation. The inconvenience of office logistics, the unclear trend of fashion, and the lack of confidence in the future clothing sales are playing an important role in the textile foreign trade orders. The whole foreign trade orders will be affected by this, and it will not be difficult to understand the reduction and cancellation of the foreign trade orders.

2, orders that have not yet been cancelled are being processed. Due to the fact that the cancellation of orders on the halfway is not enough, everyone is worried. They are afraid that the order will be cancelled when they wake up. In order to avoid this situation, traders are rushing to rush ahead and ship the goods one day earlier. "Our customers in Turkey, though our orders have not been cancelled for a while, are afraid that the epidemic will become more and more serious if customers cancel the order halfway." The distribution can only be used as stock, waiting for future opportunities to get out. " A trader revealed. "No letter of credit is not available until the order of gray cloth; TT, even if the deposit has to be controlled, quality customers can continue to place orders, and ordinary small customers will be suspended. Special treatment can only be given in a special period. "The trader reluctantly replied.

3, companies that have cancelled orders can not do anything. Some small and medium-sized trading companies do not have many customers. At present, customers either cancel their orders or do not place orders. They are faced with the situation that no work can be done. "Now we send samples and do nothing. We have pressed the pause button abroad, and our company's business has been greatly affected, so we don't know what to do next." A salesman of a trading company said. At the same time, this epidemic situation has also made textile enterprises a very tight mind, relying on only a few large customers. It is no longer a long-term solution. They should put eggs in different baskets and expand more high-quality customers.

4, negotiate and solve the order. Some trading companies said they should not receive a notice of cancellation. "We have consulted with European customers again. Orders will only be postponed without delay. The delay can be accepted, and the withdrawal will be subject to the corresponding penalty." "Our customers have been working together for many years, and our relationship has been good. We do not want to understand the epidemic situation. We can spend time together, like the outbreak of domestic outbreaks, and our customers are also postponed." The trader revealed. Although orders are delayed more easily than direct cancellation or halfway cancellation, many owners are worried: "no one has said how long the order will be delayed. If the epidemic continues to be severe, the final result will be cancelled."

5, wharf workers refuse to work, buyers do not pick up goods, and goods are at risk of detention. In addition to the cancellation of orders, the foreign trade business is facing a problem, that is, when the goods arrive at the port, no one will unload and pick up the goods. It is reported that bad news came again in the US. Wharf workers in Oakland refused to work on the docks. The workers said that the terminal did not sterilize equipment and facilities for their employees. This may disrupt the normal operation of the port and further disrupt the global supply chain during the outbreak of the new coronavirus. The port of Oakland accounts for 99% of all container cargo flowing through northern California. 3/4 of the port's trade goes with Asia. In the next few months, with the panic of people, more and more ports will face the risk of unload and take delivery. And during this period of detention, goods may cause problems and cause losses. All these require foreign trade people to do a good job of risk assessment ahead of time.

Two, the price of export products fell, the foreign trade price index fell.

In March, the foreign trade price index showed a downward trend. Among them, the foreign trade price index of chemical fiber filament fabrics decreased by 9.65%; the price index of foreign trade in embroidery category decreased by 15.26%; the daily price index of household textile fabrics dropped by 16.78%, and the total price index of foreign trade decreased.

1, the export of textile orders is limited, and foreign trade prices are falling. With the resumption of production and production in all parts of China, the weaving factory has gradually recovered, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been restored to 73%, returning to normal level, which is due to the export orders in the early stages of rush to resume work and rush to work in China. Because of the serious epidemic situation in Europe and America, it is hard to say when to see the top, and the demand for overseas textiles has plummeted. China's textile exports account for nearly 6 of the total, overseas demand is flagging, domestic textile export orders are reduced, domestic textile backlogs and foreign trade prices are falling.

2, stocks of polyester products increased, and foreign trade prices fell. Under the influence of the world epidemic, the international crude oil market is even more "bloodshed". Russia rejected the proposal of the OPEC to further reduce production, and Saudi Arabia promptly cut prices and increased production, causing global oil prices to fall to its lowest level in 20 years. On the basis of the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the price of the original polyester products fell again, and the price of polyester filament fell for several days. From the polyester end, the current load has returned to a higher level, and stocks remain high. The polyester class libraries exist 30 to 35 days. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises climbed. The enthusiasm for starting in the 2 quarter will decline, and the loom start up rate or decline, which will exacerbate the pressure of polyester industry storage, thus forcing it to reduce its load. In late March, the market of chemical fiber filament fabric continued to weaken, which was to withdraw funds from inventory. The weaving mill attracted the orders by lowering prices, but the effect was not satisfactory.

3, the oversupply of grey fabric market is obvious, and the foreign trade price war has already started. In order to deal with the unfavorable situation of the shortage of foreign products, most of the recent weaving mills turn their attention to the domestic market, and maintain production through expanding domestic demand and reducing foreign orders. Due to the oversupply of gray cloth market, the price war has started. In order to attract orders and inventory, the price of grey cloth has declined and has entered a downward path.

4, orders have shrunk sharply and foreign trade prices have fallen. The outbreak of outbreaks of foreign countries has gradually taken measures to reduce orders. Although the price of cotton has fallen sharply, the shipment is not fast enough. Recently, affected by poor orders, raw material prices, and rapid accumulation of inventory, some cotton stocks with high inventory prices fell, and cotton yarn continued to depreciate. Clothing export orders have been hit, new orders for downstream textile enterprises are seriously lacking, and domestic demand and external demand are also greatly affected. Under the circumstances, market confidence is not enough and it is difficult to change in the short term, which makes textile enterprises operating under great pressure and foreign trade prices falling.

Three, the next forecast of foreign trade index

For the export situation in April 2020, textile and garment exports are expected to show a downward trend. Overseas epidemic spread rapidly, and the United States, Italy, Spain, France, Germany and other multinational control and upgrading. With the implementation of the overseas measures, a large number of retail outlets were closed, and the consumption of terminal market was immediately suppressed. A large number of international garment brand retailers have cancelled orders, and our textile foreign trade enterprises that have just made efforts to straighten out the upstream and downstream production and supply channels have encountered second rounds of difficulties in a short time. In the short term, a large number of foreign trade customers withdraw their orders, which has brought great uncertainty to the development of foreign trade enterprises this year. It is very common for textile enterprises to encounter cancellation. Domestic garment manufacturers cancelled the increase in foreign orders, and the total number of foreign buyers entering the market declined. I believe that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the social and economic operation of various countries will gradually return to normal. Clothing demand will gradually return to normal, and the rapid recovery of China's industrial chain, stubborn anti risk ability and a complete industrial chain will attract overseas customers to place orders, so that the arrival of large quantities of orders will be just around the corner. At present, what textile enterprises should do is to stabilize the plate in the days when this order is difficult to continue, and to ensure enough cash flow to go through it, there is hope to see the rainbow.