Nylon Market Crazy, Small Ear Rope Want To Pull The Market?

Statistics show that in 2019, the total output of respirators in China was around 5 billion. This year, there are up to more than 40 thousand enterprises involved in masks production. According to the current production capacity, less than a month will be able to achieve the output of last year. Nylon filament caught up with the hot air of this mask. In April, it seemed to catch the root of "straw" and support it, but it was not so easy to drive the market.

Fig. 12019-2020 price chart of nylon filament

Mask to support the market

The first quarter of 2020 ended in a historic atmosphere. In April, with the end of the OPEC+ meeting, the market was concerned that the scale of production cuts was not enough to balance the second quarter market, and crude oil prices fell to the lowest level of 19.87 US dollars / barrel since the beginning of 2002. However, through upstream caprolactam listing from the beginning of the month of 8200 yuan / ton to the current 9000 yuan / ton and nylon chips, up to now the spot price increase of 1500 yuan / ton can be seen that raw materials in the month are actively pulling up the market.

In the early stage, the speed of nylon yarn is not obvious when the raw materials are pushed up. After that, the market demand of mask is hot. The DTY70D/24F of the mask comes from 14500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 18000-19000 yuan / ton, and the high offer is 20000-21000 yuan / ton, or 44%. And POY85D/24F also has the lowest monthly 11600 yuan / ton up to 14500 yuan / ton enterprise offer, in the short term is still on expectations. The stock of all kinds of manufacturers has been swept away, and at present, the market is rare, and the corresponding specifications of 100D and 200D have been bought to the end.

In contrast, the market of FDY and HOY is relatively light, because most factories switch production to add elastic yarn, other conventional models are tight, and follow the market slightly increase, but the actual production and marketing are generally. The fanaticism of the mask has caused the shortage of supply sources in every nylon spinning plant, and the market is in short supply. Seemingly busy market, we all understand that once the public health events at home and abroad have been controlled, the huge production capacity of these masks will be in trouble because of the cliff clipper fall of market demand, and the mask industry will also undergo a big shuffle, while nylon will add bombs. Silk is bound to return to its original form.

Demand is moderate, dosage is worrying.

It is understood that in April, the daily output of Chinese masks soared to nearly 3-4 billion. It is hard to imagine that cross border brands such as Foxconn, Wuling Automobile, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile Group, GREE air conditioners and so on, have also joined the army of production masks, and there is still room for increasing the production of masks in the later stage.

As one of the materials used for the ear mask of nylon, the proportion of nylon is 80%, and the rest is blended with spandex 70D and 140D. It is worth mentioning that the price of spandex has risen from 33000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week to the current 50000 yuan / ton, and the shipment has been to the end of the month. If the market has not been suppressed, the explosive price will still rise in the short term.

Xiaobian made a rough calculation. 1KG nylon plus elastic yarn can produce 660 MMM ear tape. We can roughly calculate the length of the ear belt by 35 cm in a mask. Then, 1KG nylon yarn can produce about 1886 masks. The output of 400 million can be increased by about 212 tons per day, so the amount of nylon and elastic wire is about 77 thousand tons per year. Looking at nylon less than 100 thousand tons per year and supply shortage, part of the mask factory purchased polyester instead. According to incomplete statistics, the Nissan production of DTY70D has exceeded 1000 tons, so the demand for masks is stable. What is the market with such excess capacity? What causes supply shortage? I believe you all have your own opinions. At least, the demand for silk for respirator is not enough to make a qualitative change in market demand. It has become the voice of many nylon spinning people that "working hard and busy for a day and not selling much".

To sum up, the market of nylon DTY is in short supply, and the actual demand is not optimistic, which is not enough to drive the market up. At present, some factories choose to turn the FDY equipment to DTY to increase production. The so-called market supply and demand balance will arrive sooner or later. After the balance, it may be a cliff type fall. Wearing masks may become more people's habits in the future. The epidemic will bring great changes to the mask industry, but this is a niche industry after all. Nowadays, whether the market is hype or not, the demand for short-term demand is good, and the raw materials are pulling up or not, the epidemic will be over in the future. The mask will also be hot. It is suggested that the operators should control the output and pay close attention to market dynamics and downstream demand. Too much expectation of this market can only be said to be calm before the storm comes.