PTA Down, Will The Speed Of Polyester And Short Fall Accelerate? How Long Can Yarn Companies Run At Low Prices And Run With Negative Profits?

Market brief

Zheng cotton suffered a short cut, low opening high to maintain the shock down market, recently concerned about the performance near 11300, is expected to lower the probability of a larger shock. Spot cotton prices trend pressure, most of the quotations fell slightly, some textile enterprises to raise the enthusiasm of spot price procurement, nearly two days, the transaction situation has been more active than before, the price center of gravity shifted slightly, the terminal demand weakened, the downstream textile enterprises limited production intensity, and the market for the market demand is not strong, raw material procurement is still just need to replenishment of the main ideas, short-term market. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to be weak and shake up. In addition, Xinjiang's new cotton will be sprouting up in recent months, and it will be concerned about the impact of weather on the cotton market.

The price of acrylonitrile continues to be weak. Factories are closing in on the market. Many traders expect to see factory prices unchanged. At present, there is little change in market prices. There is no lack of low-end market reports. The demand side is not good enough. There are no other guidelines for the fundamentals. The industry will see that the air is not decreasing, and the medium and long-term new installations will be put into operation. 。 Acrylic fiber prices continue to stalemate, downstream cotton mill product inventory accumulation, manufacturers are not optimistic about the expectations of future orders, raw material procurement enthusiasm is not high, coupled with weak raw material shocks, market wait and see factory settlement guidelines, the market trading atmosphere is poor, short term acrylic short staple price is easy to fall, difficult to rise, narrow shocks.

From the prospect of the general meeting of the Ministry of agriculture, it was learned that last year the domestic cotton destock task has basically been completed, and the output of cotton is expected to increase slightly in 2020. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the cotton planting area in 2019 was 50 million 88 thousand mu, which was basically the same as in 2018. Due to natural disasters such as sand storm, high temperature and hail in the critical period of production, the cotton yield per unit year decreased by 3.1%, and the corresponding agricultural output dropped to 5 million 889 thousand tons. However, cotton consumption dropped to 8 million 130 thousand tons in 2019, down 3.2% from the same period last year. According to China Customs data, in 2019, China imported 1 million 849 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year. For the future cotton market trend, analysts expect cotton planting area in 2020 to be 49 million 840 thousand mu (0.5% lower than that of the same period last year), supported by the production level, the output is expected to be 6 million 10 thousand tons (up by 2.2% over the same period), and consumption and import volume dropped to 7 million 930 thousand tons (down 2.5%) and 1 million 700 thousand tons (down 8.1%, respectively), and the cotton market price (3128B level) is expected to oscillate in the range of 12000-14000 yuan / ton.

Affected by the debt problem of the parent company Wei Qiao group, Wei Qiao textile fell nearly 5% yesterday morning. On the news side, the China Securities Index recently revealed that the "16 Wei Qiao 01" implied default rate was 8.9973%, more than 7%. Previously, the same "Shandong Wei Qiao 03" and "19 Wei Qiao 01" bonds issued by the Shandong Wei Qiao aluminum and Electric Company Limited of the Wei Qiao pioneering group of the 16 were also encountered in the same situation. According to reports, Wei Qiao group's bonds are mainly borne by two companies, namely, Shandong Wei Qiao aluminum Electric Co., Ltd. and Shandong Hongqiao New Material Co., Ltd. Among them, Wei Qiao aluminum and electricity stocks are currently 6, with a scale of 15 billion 800 million yuan, and the bonds due in one year are about 6 billion yuan. Shandong Hongqiao currently has 25 stocks of bonds, with a scale of 27 billion 131 million yuan, and the bonds due in one year are about 9 billion 500 million yuan.

In April 22nd, the Lanxi inspection group visited Keqiao textile market research to learn the advanced experience of textile industry transformation and upgrading in two places, inspecting the textile business and development mode, and further promoting the establishment of Lanxi cotton textile industry innovation service complex and Keqiao modern textile industry innovation service complex cooperation relationship, to better boost the textile economic development of the two places. In 2019, China's textile city group realized a turnover of 200 billion 30 million yuan, an increase of 10.61% over the same period last year. The textile market realized 52 billion 659 million yuan in the online market, an increase of 25.26% over the same period last year. The textile industry is a traditional pillar industry in Lanxi. Among them, the whole cotton elastic fabric accounts for 80% of the total market share in the country. The brand of elastic fabric is found in the shopping malls at home and abroad. The Lanxi export denim takes the 1/7 of the whole country, the 2/3 of Zhejiang, and the Lanxi enterprise led the 4 denim "Zhejiang manufacturing" standard. The Lanxi brand is the most important industry.

Recently, the "Internet + logistics" service platform released the "April 8th -14 day city freight big data report", which shows the resumption of production after the outbreak. It is reported that the logistics industry is affected by the epidemic in a larger area, after the double impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival, the volume of business has dropped 93%, and its business volume has recovered to more than 90% before the epidemic. From the geographical perspective, the freight demand in most of the regional cities has recovered more than 80% except Hubei and North China. Southern China, Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan provinces have the most strong freight demand recovery rate, close to or more than 100%, and the recovery of freight demand in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China is also good. Data show that the machinery and clothing fabrics from Dongguan to East China and North China increased significantly compared with March, mainly including masks production equipment and mask materials.

In April 21st, Sichuan Guang'an economic development zone and Zhejiang Jixing Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. from Huzhou, Zhejiang, successfully signed an annual production of 600 thousand tons of functional differential fiber new material intelligent production project, which is Guang'an's successful introduction of the first chemical fiber industry project from Zhejiang, also opened the Zhejiang chemical fiber industry to the Guang'an industry transfer prelude. Annual output of 600 thousand tons of functional differential fiber new material intelligent production project total investment of 3 billion 500 million yuan, organized by Zhejiang Jixing Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Yangzhou Pu Li Technology Development Co., Ltd., Sichuan Renshou golden goose Textile Co., Ltd. investment construction, covering an area of about 600 acres, will build an annual output of 600 thousand tons of functional differential fiber new material production line and supporting projects, after the project is completed and put into operation, The annual output value will reach more than 6 billion yuan, and the annual tax rate will be more than 300 million yuan. Among them, the first phase of the investment is about 2 billion yuan, covering an area of 300 mu. The construction of new functional material differential fiber production line and supporting project with an annual output of 300 thousand tons is mainly planned. The project is scheduled to start in September 2020. It is expected to be put into operation in March 2022. After the first phase of construction and operation, it is expected to achieve an annual output value of more than 3 billion yuan and an annual tax payment of more than 150 million yuan.

In 2019, cotton production in Xinjiang continued to maintain the highest level in the country, reaching 5 million 2 thousand tons, although it was 2.1% lower than that in 2018, but the proportion of total output in the country increased by 1.1 percentage points, reaching 84.9%. Xinjiang's total cotton production, yield per unit area, planting area and commodity allocation ranked first in the country for 25 consecutive years. According to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang was 38 million 107 thousand and 500 mu, an increase of 2% compared with 2018, accounting for 76% of the total planting area in the country. Xinjiang cotton (lint) production per unit area is 131 kg / mu, and continues to be higher than the national average yield per unit area, higher than 13.7 kg / mu. In 2019, the total area of cotton production in the whole region exceeded 11 million 500 thousand mu for the first time, and Xinjiang's position as a national high quality cotton production base was further consolidated.

Anhui's Huamao textile Limited by Share Ltd, which has been among the 20 most competitive enterprises in China's cotton textile industry for many years, reported its latest annual report in April 22nd. Its operating income was 2 billion 979 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 198 million yuan, an increase of 66.59% over the same period. Basic earnings per share of 0.21 yuan. For the performance changes during the reporting period, Huamao shares explained that the increase in the company's performance was mainly due to the increase in non operating profit and loss. Statistics show that Huamao stock focuses on pure, blended yarn and its fabrics, knitwear, clothing, printing and dyeing of cotton, wool, linen, silk and man-made fibers; sales of textile equipment and accessories, home textiles, and investment management. Our products include yarn series, grey fabric series, yarn dyed fabric series and functional industrial cloth.

Bangladesh's financial bulletin reported on April 20th that the export revenue of Bangladesh in March dropped by 18.29% compared to the previous year, due to the reduction in orders and shipping of garments, leather and its products, frozen food and other major export commodities, and only 2 billion 730 million dollars. Garment exports, which account for about 84% of Bangladesh's export volume in March, fell by 26.70% compared to the same period last year, only 1 billion 970 million US dollars. Bangladesh labor organization leader said that as the government continued to strengthen control and closure of the new crown epidemic situation, many Bangladesh garment manufacturers announced the layoffs. These workers who are laid off by factories can only get half of their normal wages and housing allowances. ILO also said that the government needed to prepare for possible workers' unrest.

According to the 21 day of the Korean food and drug safety department, with the improvement of the mask supply situation, recently, we received the consultation on whether to export the domestic residual masks. Since February 26th, the government has stabilized the supply and demand of respirators, adjusted emergency supply and demand for masks and hand disinfectants, and banned exports in principle. Only mask makers can export, and the export volume is limited to less than 10% of daily output. A few days ago, the food and Drug Administration said at the press conference that these positions will continue to be maintained for a certain period of time. At the same time, the government is considering humanitarian assistance for masks in the United States, Japan and the 6.25 War (16 Koreas). The government official said, "priority will be given to countries that require support". "The supply of masks and public opinion are prerequisites." At present, the supply of Korean masks is constantly increasing, while the number of people buying public masks has been decreasing. The government believes that the views of the people are more important, which means that public opinion surveys will be conducted before making decisions.

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