A Quarterly Exposure Of Tens Of Billions Of Shares Of Oil And Gas Entering The ETF Disk Fans "Refuse To Ebb Tide"

With the fall of international oil prices, the related oil and gas QDII fund has fallen across the board. 7 oil and gas theme funds (combined A/C class) have declined more than 30% this year, and 3 of them have fallen by more than 60%.

As crude oil prices plummeted, many investors scrambled crude oil, and its share jumped more than doubled during the first quarter.

This led to many oil and gas topics QDII fund reaching the upper limit and forced to close the purchase. So many investors turned to the crude oil ETF on the site, which led to a high premium for ETF.

In response to this phenomenon, recently, a number of fund companies' crude oil funds have issued notice announcements on the fluctuation of trading prices in the field. According to media reports, the organic declaration of crude oil ETF was also returned.

Many fund managers interviewed by the twenty-first Century economic report said that oil prices will remain volatile in the short term and will remain low for some time to come. More optimistic about the level of oil prices in the second half of the year, and do not approve of blindly picking the bottom.

Bottom oil and gas fund

Crude oil investment has come to the spotlight.

In April 21st, oil prices fell to -37 U.S. dollars / barrel a day before the termination of WTI crude oil futures contracts in May.

This is a phenomenon that has never been seen in history.

Looking back at international oil prices, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has hit global oil demand. According to the International Energy Agency IEA, global crude oil demand in the two quarter of 2020 is expected to drop by 23 million 100 thousand barrels per day compared with the same period in April, and the global demand for crude oil in April is expected to drop by 29 million barrels per day.

Correspondingly, OPEC+ finally reached an agreement on yield reduction in April 12th. In 2020, it cut production by 9 million 700 thousand barrels per day, and output fell to 7 million 700 thousand barrels per day in 7-9 months. In January 2021, the reduction of output in April fell to 5 million 800 thousand barrels per day in -2022 January 2021.

Against this background, international oil prices plummeted. In April 21st, the main contract of Brent crude oil futures fell in June at 21.86 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 23% on the same day, the lowest price since 2001.

In April 22nd, the domestic oil and gas fund fell across the board, and a number of funds fell by more than 5.5%. The fidelity global commodity fund was down. (a quarterly report, the first heavy position fund of the fund was the largest US crude oil ETF tracking WTI, the US oil fund USO and the fourth heavy position fund, the US Brent crude oil fund BNO).

In April 23rd, the oil and gas fund rose from a drop to a full jump, while GD Dow Jones rose 10% in the United States, and Huaan's S & P global oil and noan oil and gas energy rose by over 7%. Yi Fang Da crude rose more than 6%.

With the sharp fluctuations in oil prices, a large number of investors have entered the market recently, and the share of oil and gas fund has surged.

At present, there are 7 oil and gas theme QDII funds in the market. According to a quarterly report, the share of oil and gas fund has increased to 24 billion 971 million from 11 billion 469 million in early 2020 this year, an increase of 13 billion 502 million, an increase of 118%.

Zhang Ting, a fortune researcher, said that since March, the price of crude oil has dropped sharply, and many investors have been collecting crude oil. Many QDII funds have reached the quota limit and closed the purchase. Many investors have turned to the crude oil ETF in the field, resulting in a high premium for ETF.

For example, in April 23rd, the closing price of the southern crude oil was 0.757 yuan, the net value of the unit was 0.4029 yuan, the closing price was 88% higher than the net value of the unit, and the closing price of Yi Fang Da crude oil was 0.7390 yuan, the net value of the unit was 0.4079 yuan, and the closing price was 81% higher than the net value of the unit.

Regarding this, Song Qing, director of the International Business Department of the Noah fund, told reporters that the closing price premium of the oil and gas fund is a normal phenomenon, reflecting investors' judgement of the rising oil prices in the future. If the premium is excessive, the manager will make a risk warning according to the situation.

"This phenomenon shows that many investors believe that crude oil prices will rise in the future, so they are willing to buy crude oil ETF at a higher premium." Zhang Ting said.

In this case, the oil fund of several fund companies issued notice announcements on the floor price fluctuation.

For example, Yi Fonda Fund said that the recent trading price of the two tier trading market of the QDII of Yi Fang Da crude oil fund (QDII) fluctuated greatly, which prompted investors to pay attention to the risk of market price fluctuation in the market class, and if it blindly invested, it might suffer heavy losses. It is reported that in order to ensure smooth operation of the fund and protect the interests of fund share holders, the fund has suspended the purchase and regular fixed investment business since March 25, 2020.

A fund industry said that the fund companies have recently suspended the purchase due to the foreign exchange quota, but also worried that the oil and gas fund in the two tier market price volatility risks, investors may lose money.

When is the time to collect the bottom?

Now, is it a good time to bargain for the crude oil fund?

Reporters interviewed a number of fund managers said they did not approve of blindly picking the bottom.

"The investment of the so-called bottom line is a normal phenomenon, which is purely based on investors' judgement of the market. A phenomenon of choosing an investment tool to get investment returns. The key is to choose an investment tool that best suits investors' circumstances. " Song Qing said.

Song Qing suggested that investors should choose their own investment tools according to the actual situation. Crude oil futures should pay attention to the use of leverage and risk control; ETF should pay attention to the replacement cost and liquidity of futures; the high energy stocks related to oil prices are more traditional investment types, with greater elasticity; ordinary investors can pay attention to the public funds raised by oil and gas energy themes, and investment. The threshold is relatively low, but it also needs to be concerned about its investment risks.

Song Qing said he was cautiously optimistic about oil prices. Because the major changes in the previous market are based on the impact of the whole macro-economy and epidemic situation. And the intensification of short-term supply and demand conflicts has created a huge fluctuation in this price. This phenomenon is only a short-term phenomenon, and asset prices should not be a common state. Therefore, it will not be maintained for a long time.

"For the future market, especially in the coming months, we will have more confidence in oil prices by the end of the year. However, the price will eventually recover and the crude oil inventory will be digested. The crude oil futures price will remain relatively volatile and volatile before the stock falls, and it will be more optimistic about the oil price level in the second half of the year. Song Qing said, "I hope investors will be more patient and choose a suitable investment tool."

In April 23rd, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said in an interview that investment in oil and gas funds and international oil prices were linked to the recent sharp fluctuations in international oil prices. Especially in the context of the close operation of oil stocks and the sharp drop in oil demand caused by the global impact of the epidemic, the price of oil will remain low for some time. But in the long run, it is certainly not sustainable under the cost price.

"Now the market volatility is still very large, so when investing in oil and gas fund, we should pay attention to risk prevention, but a part of the funds may be matched by the bottom line mentality. If we look at the long line is no problem, if we look at the short term, the risk may be relatively large. If there is a premium, we will explain that some funds go to the bottom." Yang Delong said.

An oil and gas fund manager said, "recently, some oil and gas funds in the two tier market trading prices fluctuate and the premium rate is higher, the risk of premium is greater, investors should avoid buying at a high premium. It is expected that the crude oil market will continue to fluctuate in the future, and investors are not recommended to blindly copy the bottom.

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