The Domestic Market Of Foreign Trade Enterprises Is Expected To Recover First (April 2020 20-24).

First, the domestic yarn price is low again, and futures prices continue to rise and fall.

This week, domestic yarn spot prices continued to decline and refresh the new low in the year. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 19175 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 54 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference 7751 yuan / ton, compared with last week reduced 17 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price 18621 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 319 yuan / ton, lower than spot 554 yuan / ton, the difference narrowed 265 yuan / ton last week.

Although the overall situation of textile enterprises is still not optimistic, it has been possible to receive small orders recently, and sales have improved slightly. Last month, customers were busy with the withdrawal of orders, and no new orders were added. At the same time, foreign trade enterprises began to transform products according to domestic standards, converted to domestic sales, and tailored to domestic sales, and the domestic market is expected to recover first.

Two, international cotton yarn prices continue to fall.

(1) 32 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 20024 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] expanded 6 yuan / ton to -849 yuan / ton compared with last week; the average price of Vietnam port delivery was 19730 yuan / ton, down 58 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price gap between China and Vietnam expanded 4 yuan / ton to -555 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 19202 yuan / ton, down 52 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India decreased by 132 yuan / ton to -156 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 18758 yuan / ton, down 56 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan narrowed 128 yuan / ton to 288 yuan / ton last week.

(three) 10 rotor spinning

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 12812 yuan / ton, down 62 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the difference between China and India was 9 yuan / ton to -504 yuan / ton last week.

At present, some cotton mills in India and Pakistan have resumed production, but due to insufficient employment, the start-up rate is relatively low. The price of yarn is still falling due to the downturn in demand, and the price of yarn may further decline in the future.

Three, polyester and short prices fell sharply, sticky short prices remained stable.

With the decline of non-woven fabrics and other trends, the short and short market has returned and prices have dropped. This week, the national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 6036 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 144 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference increased 107 yuan / ton to 5388 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price 8600 yuan / ton, last week was flat, cotton sticky price difference narrowed 37 yuan / ton to 2824 yuan / ton last week.

Four, outlook for the future

1, to boost consumer policy frequently, the economic situation is expected to rebound.

After the economic impact of the epidemic, expanding domestic demand has become the consensus of the industry. In recent years, in order to promote economic recovery and guide consumption growth, provinces and municipalities have introduced a series of measures, such as the "55 Shopping Festival" in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Jiangsu Nanjing and Hubei Lichuan to encourage 2.5 days off. Some cities such as Qingdao issue lottery tickets through Yaohao, Beijing Xicheng District will continue to issue 150 million yuan coupons for 3 months, and so on. The introduction, plus the recent domestic epidemic control, although the prevention and control will become normalization, people's lives are gradually returning from the state of pressing the pause button, and the domestic economy that is hit by the epidemic is expected to pick up.

2, the order is now half year "empty window period". Foreign trade enterprises are busy practicing "internal strength".

Foreign epidemic caused foreign trade enterprises to have a cliff shaped shrinkage, and even some enterprises have no orders. Facing nearly half a year's "empty window period", many foreign trade enterprises began to readjust their sales strategy, invest more in the domestic market, and adjust the product mix, redesign the pattern and make sales plans according to the characteristics of the domestic market.

In addition, according to some spinning enterprises, the order situation has improved slightly since last month. Customers' busy withdrawal from last month to the appearance of sporadic small bills seems to indicate signs of recovery in the market.

3, the Canton Fair is worth looking forward to global coverage.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, in view of the characteristics of the 127th Canton Fair held online, relevant investment promotion work has been launched. The Canton Fair has given full attention to the global coverage, and has invited more than 40 overseas buyers who have been present. We believe that enterprises can plan ahead and make adequate preparations. The online Canton Fair is likely to become a booster of the industrial chain and supply chain.

4, IMF is optimistic about China.

The IMF is more optimistic about China's GDP growth forecast, predicting that the US GDP will shrink 5.9% in 2020, 9.1% in Italy, 7% in Germany and 5.2% in Japan, but the gloomy results will be offset to a certain extent by the growth of China and India. For 2021, the IMF is expected to recover significantly, and the global economy will grow by 5.8%, of which China will take the lead in the global economy, accounting for 29.2%.

2020 was destined to be an extraordinary year. The textile enterprises experienced the cancellation of orders in March, the reduction in production in April, and the double cold days in the market. Contrary to the fact that the non-woven fabrics and the melt spun cloth fire were hard to find, the participants in the pure cotton market were running poorly and selling goods at a low price. In a series of upheavals, enterprises are showing strong sense of crisis, actively adjusting their business strategies and making full use of the integration of online and offline development. Just like "the winter is not killing, how can we see the spring of spring" in the poetry of "Meng winter and Pu Jin Guan Ting Ting"? If it is not the cold winter, snow covered everything of the earth, how can there be spring March? We must have confidence and expectation for the future. Just as general secretary Xi Jinping said, "danger and peace always exist with one another."

[1] the difference is the difference between the yarn price and the yarn price.