Four Factors Led To The May 1 Holiday Polyester Market Rebound

Just after the May 1 holiday, Xiaobian was shocked by the price of polyester products.

In terms of polyester filament, the mainstream factory in Shengze, Jiangsu has increased by 300-600 from May 1 to now. The mainstream factory in Tongxiang has been up 100-550 since the May 1 holiday. The DTY holiday in Zhejiang has increased by 250-350 since then, and the 350-450 polyester factory holiday in Xiaoshan has increased by 350-450.

On the PTA side, as at 15 hours on May 6th, the 2009 futures contract of PTA futures closed at 3500 points, up 80 points from the previous trading day, or 2.34%.

In terms of ethylene glycol, as of May 6th closing at 15 hours, the 2009 contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 3697 points, up 69 points, or 1.9%, compared with the previous trading day.

In terms of production and marketing, in May 4th, the price of raw materials increased by nearly 300%. In May 6th, the average production and sale of polyester reached about 160%.

Xiaobian can not help wondering, before the holiday, the polyester manufacturers are still plainly sad. How did they spend the five day holiday, but the market took a 180 degree turn?
First,

Yield reduction agreement takes effect

International oil price doubled

With the coming of May, OPEC and his oil producing countries have entered into an agreement on the reduction of production, and the world has gradually begun to restart its economy.

As of Beijing time closed on May 6th, WTI crude oil futures for June delivery rose 20.45%, to 24.56 dollars / barrel; the July delivery of Brent crude oil futures rose 13.86%, to close at 30.97 U.S. dollars / barrel.

Among them, WTI crude oil futures have risen for five consecutive trading days, and Brent crude oil futures have risen for six consecutive trading days. A week ago, WTI crude oil futures rose 99%, while Brent crude futures prices also rose by more than 90% compared with a minimum of $16 / barrel in April 22nd.

Crude oil, as the most basic raw material of polyester products, has almost doubled its price, which will naturally drive up the products of the downstream polyester industry chain.
Two.

700 thousand ton PTA fire

Polyester raw materials are rising

In April 30th, a fire occurred in the refining unit of the PTA unit of Ningbo Lewin New Material Co., Ltd., Ningbo Daxie Development Zone. The annual capacity of the device was 700 thousand tons, resulting in the death of 2 people at the scene.

The 700 thousand tonnes of PTA annual production capacity is naturally nothing to do with the huge capacity of PTA and the breakthrough of historical inventory. According to the data monitoring of China's silk net, as of May 1st, the PTA social inventory was about 2 million 380 thousand tons, still at a historical high.

But sometimes, when the market wants to raise the price, the difference between the price increase and the no price increase is just a reason. The explosion of the 700 thousand ton PTA device in Ningbo just provided the reason for such a price increase.
Three.

Raw materials are less stocked.

Weaving enterprises take the opportunity to replenish goods

In the market research before the holiday, Xiaobian realized that due to the excessive inventory of grey cloth, the tight capital chain, the downstream demand was almost stagnant, and a large number of weaving enterprises chose to leave on May 1 Labor Day, and the vacation time varied from 3-7 days.

And since the beginning of this year, the price of polyester filament has dropped sharply, and once again refresh the historical low, making cloth bosses dare not buy a lot of raw materials, and afraid to "copy the bottom to the halfway up the mountainside", so the stock of polyester is relatively small.

After the rise in crude oil prices, a distribution boss took the opportunity to replenish the goods, which may not be enough to fill the 15-30 day demand, but could not support a large number of products, but when a large number of weaving enterprises chose to replenish the goods, the market was also improving.

Four.

May 1 consumption gradually recover

Domestic demand is beginning to release.

This year's May Day holiday has been extended to 5 days, longer than in previous years, and many people choose to travel outside. According to the Ministry of culture and tourism, on May 1-5, the total number of domestic tourists was 115 million, and the domestic tourism revenue reached 47 billion 560 million yuan, which was about 40% higher than that in 2019.

In the news, we also see that due to the limited epidemic situation, tickets for popular tourist attractions such as the Imperial Palace have been booked up once they are launched.

From this phenomenon, we can also see that nowadays people's consumption desire is constantly recovering. When the external demand is not clear, consumption of domestic demand has gradually begun to rise, and clothing demand as the first place of "food, clothing and shelter" can also change at the first time.

The prospects are bright and the road is tortuous. For textile enterprises, the next biggest goal is to survive. To better survive, we need to keep abreast of changes in the market. What are the following priorities?

Focus on

Change of starting rate of weaving enterprises

Although the market has begun to warm up earlier than before, but compared with the normal situation, the weaving Market is still in the situation of oversupply, and the situation of high inventory and tired stock has not been fundamentally reversed.

Under such circumstances, the situation of weaving enterprises will be even more likely to drop or even shut down. Once this happens, it will be a great blow to the stock of polyester factories or polyester filament.

Fluctuations in international oil prices

Since the outbreak of the outbreak in March and the beginning of the price war by oil producing countries, the amplitude of crude oil fluctuation has been refreshed again and again, and even the magic phenomenon of negative oil prices has appeared. In the past week, the price of crude oil has nearly doubled.

When crude oil prices fluctuate, the price of polyester raw materials will inevitably be affected. For textile enterprises, they will keep up with hot demand for raw materials, but they should not put all their eggs in one basket.

Reemployment abroad

At present, about half of the states in the United States have entered the stage of resumption of work and rehabilitation. In Europe, countries with severe epidemics such as Italy and Spain seem to be beginning to "unseal".

Europe and the United States market is the largest market for China's textile exports. If the European and American markets can resume, it is definitely a good news. However, with the resumption of economic activity, the outbreak of new crown pneumonia in some states of the United States has also rebounded. The outbreak of the European epidemic is also in danger of re eruption after the resumption of work. Therefore, it remains to be seen how the follow-up development will take place.