China'S Demand For Oil Imports Continued To Recover In The First Half Of April.

In May 7th, the General Administration of Customs disclosed the import and export data from 1 to April this year.

Data show that China imported crude oil 1.7 million tons in April this year, an increase of 1.7%, the average import price was 2906.7 yuan per ton, down 8.9% from the same period last year, 32 million 328 thousand tons of imported natural gas, an increase of 1.5%, and the average import price of 2702.5 yuan per ton, down 15%.

It is worth mentioning that, affected by the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, China's crude oil processing volume in April of this year decreased compared with last year, and its stock continued to rise. Under such circumstances, imports still achieved positive growth. On the one hand, it showed that China's demand recovery continued to increase rapidly, and on the other hand, it also showed that domestic enterprises took advantage of the low price of crude oil to sweep goods.

"From April figures, China's gasoline and diesel consumption has recovered to 95% and 100% of the same period last year, and the operating rate of China's refineries is accelerating." An oil central enterprise official told reporters, "theoretically, will further increase the intensity of crude oil purchase, but because the early high priced inventory is still not digested, so it is not so evident in the figures."

The current situation in China has become a model for the recovery of global crude oil demand in the eyes of foreign companies.

China needs global support

During the May 1 holiday, international oil prices passed a "golden" 5 days.

As of press release, WTI's main futures contract was quoted at 27.13 US dollars / barrel, more than doubled compared with 13 dollars before the holiday, and Brent crude oil reported 31.53 US dollars / barrel, up by more than 50% before the holiday.

The first good news is that when OPEC entered the May, the first cut agreement was about to be implemented. The market is optimistic that the current oil producing countries' production cuts will effectively alleviate the current oversupply of crude oil, while the market's worries about the crude oil storage crisis have also eased.

According to OPEC's agreement on output reduction in April 13th, OPEC has cut output by 9 million 700 thousand barrels per day since May 1, 2020, and reduced production by 7 million 700 thousand barrels per day from July 1, 2020 to December, and 5 million 800 thousand barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022.

"Now the market has a basic consensus that the worst of the market is over." The above oil central enterprises told reporters that "Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries cut their production ahead of schedule. The number of drilling activities in the United States has dropped from more than 600 to 325 in March this year, and the output will see a marked decline in the coming months."

Nevertheless, he told reporters that the upward trend of oil prices is still relatively limited because the supply surplus is still in the market and there is still huge uncertainty in demand side.

Last week, international oil giants Shell, BP and ExxonMobil released their first quarterly reports respectively. At various companies' conferences, they mentioned the plight of the current oil demand, but they almost gave the same voice that China would be the pioneer of the rise after the oil price collapse.

? ? ? Exxon Mobil said at the first quarter of last week that although China's recovery is still in its early stage, limited initial sales figures are encouraging. Holland Royal Shell CEO van Borden said at a press conference that demand for retail outlets in some parts of China was even higher than that before epidemics. BP CEO Lu Boehner believes that data from Asian countries are To some extent, it has guided the way of demand recovery.

However, whether global energy demand can be fully recovered is still unknown. Some pessimistic market analysts believe that global demand for crude oil may no longer be able to recover to the pre epidemic growth rate and to accelerate the global demand for crude oil, because this epidemic has always changed people's way of life.

Oil companies seek survival

? ? Prior to this, Dai Houliang, chairman of CNPC, said at a conference that China Petroleum Group once again came to the critical moment of survival and development. And recently, he also published an article saying that CNPC should enhance its political standing and enhance overall awareness, and strive to play the role of heavy weights and pillars of central enterprises, and strive to win the reform and development of epidemic prevention and control and production and operation. Victory.

At present, China's three oil companies will cut spending to partially ease the impact of low oil prices. At present, the "three barrels of oil" listed subsidiaries have released first quarter results. In the first quarter, "three barrels of oil" were seriously affected by the loss of downstream business, and the upstream business losses will appear in the two quarter.

"Three barrels of oil" adjusted the capital expenditure plan in 2020 to retain cash: PetroChina announced the largest decline, down 30% to 200 billion yuan from the original budget of 295 billion yuan. Sinopec announced that capital expenditure plan was down by 20%-25% from 147 billion yuan of actual capital expenditure in 2019. CNOOC's adjusted capital expenditure plan has dropped by 11% from the original budget, from 850-950 billion yuan to 750-850 billion yuan, and the capital expenditure reduction has come from overseas projects, and the capital expenditure plan for domestic projects has remained unchanged.

"CNOOC's capital expenditure is much lower than that of the other two companies," he said. Huang Xiaodan, a global rating analyst at the S & P, told reporters, "if the oil price of 25 US dollars per barrel is kept to the end of June in April, the upstream business of" three barrels of oil "will lose money in the two quarter. China Petroleum and CNOOC will still be able to record cash profits, while Sinopec will achieve a balance of payments or a small cash loss.

Despite drastic cuts in capital expenditure, "three barrels of oil" did not substantially reduce the expected output in 2020 to ensure domestic energy security.

Specifically, Sinopec plans to maintain production levels, while PetroChina will make adjustments based on oil prices. But both companies plan to increase their natural gas production in 2020 by 7%-8% and 5% respectively. CNOOC plans to cut its total oil and gas output from 3% to 5.05-5.15 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Like capital expenditure, CNOOC's total output cuts come from overseas operations, and domestic output will remain at 3.33-3.40 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

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