Will The "Retaliatory" Order Of The Terminal Come After The FDY Of The Pet Factory Has Sprung Up? ?

During the May 1 holiday, WTI crude oil surged 47%. After the May 1 holiday, PTA and downstream polyester rose and traded at a time. But the terminal textile market of the industrial chain remained flat. This is like the wave that the PTA and polyester market rebound briefly in the early April.

Unlike oil production rebounded in early April, the main reason for the sharp rebound in crude oil in the early May was an increase in investors' anticipation of rising demand for crude oil in the future. Some countries in Europe and the United States have begun to resume work locally, and Trump is also intent on "restarting" the United States as a major global economy. If the European and American economies begin to recover, the demand for crude oil will increase sharply and directly push up the price of crude oil.

From the domestic economic point of view, the number of outbound travel and tourism revenue during the May 1 holiday decreased by 4 and 6 respectively over the same period last year. But compared to last year, it has already delivered a good answer. Many shopping malls are also full of popularity. This reflects the normalization of epidemic prevention, and in the process of slow recovery of domestic consumer services, the "economic recovery" has become a holiday key word. Judging from the re opening of the economy around the world, we have reason to believe that the most serious imbalance between supply and demand is over, and that the market can be described with cautious optimism.

But at present, the epidemic situation in Europe and America is still at the peak stage, and the resistance to economic recovery is bigger. In May 6th, the number of newly diagnosed countries in Russia, India, Brazil and other countries with insufficient testing capacity increased significantly. The peak of the global epidemic will continue. The epidemic will curb the rebound rate of crude oil.

In April 7th, 57% of the terminal looms started, and about 50% of the terminal looms started in May 7th. The fact that the terminal looms started to go down continuously is an indisputable fact, which directly reflects the uneasy predicament of the textile market in the busy season. The European and American markets have stopped, and the export of our textile and clothing products has been stagnant and domestic sales have weakened.

But unlike in April, due to the fact that the global health and safety incidents are still spreading, and the load and operation of foreign textile and garment industry are limited, and the production of protective clothing is concentrated in China, the demand for melt blown nonwovens fabrics is very hot recently.

At the same time, some factories and factories are actively reducing costs and developing new fabrics under the function of medical protection. Recently, most textile enterprises use common products such as polyester, Taffa, spring and Asian spinning to produce medical protective clothing products with PP and PE coating. They can keep medical protection function as much as possible while reducing cost and increasing clothing comfort, but the durability rate is relatively discounted.

Among them, 190 spring Asian spinning and 210 polyester taffy are the main raw materials, and the 190 spring sub spinning production mainly concentrates on the water loom with Shengze area. Due to this impact, the load rate and order of the loom looms in Shengze recently are acceptable, some factory loads have been increased, and fabric orders such as Haining, Changshu, Changxin, Fujian Youxi and Quanzhou remain weak. Similarly, the demand for polyester filament products also showed great difference and unity. In the past week, the average production and sales of polyester filament POY and DTY basically maintained at 3-5. However, the FDY of the polyester filament was "suddenly rising" due to the specific demand. In the past week, the average production and sales of the polyester filament was over 130%. At the same time, the protection of the demand for substitutes also led to the rebound of the price of the fabric and the FDY price of the raw silk polyester fabric.

In the future, orders for terminal textile and garment, especially export trade orders, are still an important opportunity to reverse the "war situation" of polyester industry. The control of health and safety incidents in Europe, America and Africa and Southeast Asia directly determines the progress of recovery and consumption recovery of their own enterprises, and directly affects their import and export trade.

As of the end of April, the news showed that some enterprises in some European countries had resumed their work by pressing the "acceleration key". Most of the local enterprises and ports were gradually resumed in May. As Europe's important textile and apparel consumption area, the new textile and garment industry zone - Southeast Asian countries' health and safety incidents spread to the next stage, and the trend of textile trade orders will flow back to China again, thus boosting the demand for polyester and polyester filament in China's chemical fiber and clothing raw materials.

But it is still necessary to be cautious. It is not a fast process to resume work from some countries, lift up the port of closure, resume free trade and increase the consumption of residents in various countries. At the same time, in the near May, from the production cycle, the future textile fabric orders will be the main force in the autumn end and winter orders, taking into account the domestic and global consumption "retaliatory" fears and expectations in the second half of the year. On clothing enterprises will also be cautious in order to produce, under the background of economic downturn, as far as possible control clothing inventory pressure.

Terminal textile and garment export trade is a twist. An important turning point in the "war situation" of polyester industry, and crude oil is undoubtedly the weathervane of the future "polyester industry".

Different from terminal textile and garment export trade, the future may bring relatively good expectation to polyester, but crude oil in May is not entirely optimistic. In May, global crude oil inventories will continue to increase. Even if part of the uncertainty is expected to be cut down, the global oil storage worries in May will be more prominent than in April. Although the crude oil market is losing all of its profits, there will be a shortage of profits in the future, but the corresponding favorable expectations are not enough. As the source of the whole polyester industry chain, polyester products such as polyester filament and so on will also be hard to be "independent".

Therefore, in a comprehensive view, the demand for polyester and polyester filament Market in May is expected to have good expectations. The cost side will also be more risky. Under the coexistence of opportunities and crises, polyester factories need to flexibly control sales strategies and control inventory rationally so as to provide more relaxed operational space under the uncertain supply and demand pattern in the future. (source: JOYOU information, Zhuo Chuang information)