Interpretation: In May, The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Fell Slightly, But Still On The Ups And Downs.

In May 31, 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

At present, China's overall efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control, economic and social development, and economic recovery are in steady progress. In May 2020, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index and the non manufacturing business activity index all remained above the critical point, of which the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month, while the non manufacturing business activity index was 53.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month. The composite PMI output index was 53.4%, unchanged from last month.

　 1. The purchasing managers index of manufacturing industry dropped slightly, but kept above the critical point.

In May, 81.2% of the enterprises surveyed by manufacturing purchasing managers reached over 80% of normal production level, while manufacturing PMI dropped slightly from last month, but remained at the critical point. Key features of this month:

First, manufacturing industry continues to recover. The production index was 53.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the production and operation of enterprises continued to improve. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 14 manufacturing industries, such as food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea, petroleum processing, special equipment and automobiles, were above the critical point, while 7 manufacturing industries, such as textile and apparel, wood processing, and so on, were below the critical point.

Two is the growth of new orders. The new order index was 50.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from last month, and the difference from the production index has narrowed. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 12 new orders index was higher than last month, and the new orders index of manufacturing industry, such as paper printing, chemical fiber and rubber plastics, steel and iron, rose to more than the critical point, indicating that domestic related market demand has improved.

The three is a rebound in the price index. The main raw material purchase price index and ex factory price index were 51.6% and 48.7% respectively, up 9.1 and 6.5 percentage points from last month, all of which are high in the past 4 months. The main raw material purchase price index has risen to above the critical point, and the purchasing price of raw materials has increased. Judging from the industry situation, the two price indices of the upstream and downstream industries such as steel and nonferrous metals have picked up significantly, which is higher than 55%.

Four is the improvement of corporate confidence. Manufacturing enterprises' production and business activity expectations increased 3.9 percentage points from last month to 57.9%. Judging from the industry situation, the production and operation activities of food and alcoholic beverage refining tea, petroleum processing, special equipment, automobiles and other manufacturing enterprises are expected to exceed 60%, and the relevant enterprises are generally optimistic about the development trend of the industry in the next three months.

Five, the index of import and export is still at a low level. The current global epidemic situation and the world economic situation are still grim and complicated, and foreign market demand has been shrinking. This month, the new export orders index and import index of the manufacturing industry were 35.3% and 45.3% respectively, although they rose 1.8 and 1.4 percentage points from last month, but they are at a relatively low level in history.

　 Two, non manufacturing business activity index continued to rise, the construction industry increased considerably.

In May, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 53.6%, higher than that of last month's 0.4 percentage points, of which the construction industry picked up considerably.

The construction industry is accelerating. The construction business activity index was 60.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market demand, the new order index increased by 4.8 percentage points from last month to 58%, and the newly signed construction contract volume of construction enterprises continued to rise. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the construction industry employee index and business activity expectation index are 58.8% and 67.5% respectively, up 1.7 and 2.1 percentage points from last month.

The service sector has steadily recovered. The index of business activity in service industry was 52.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month. Expand the consumption policy and measures to accelerate landing, superimpose the consumption effect of "May 1" holiday, and the consumer market will continue to warm up. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 15 industries had an index of business activity above 50%. Among them, transportation, accommodation, catering, telecommunications, Internet software and other industries business activity index is above 55%, higher than last month, the market activity has increased. However, the business activity index of culture, sports and entertainment industry is only 44.5%, and continues to be low.

Three. The composite PMI output index is unchanged from last month.

In May, the composite PMI output index was 53.4%, unchanged from last month, indicating that the production and operation of enterprises improved steadily. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constituted the composite PMI output index, were 53.2% and 53.6%, respectively.