Short Term Trading Atmosphere Can Still PTA Market Can Get Out Of The Haze.

Near the end of the month, Yisheng Petrochemical repurchased the stock, and some polyester factories had the demand for centralized procurement of raw materials. The spot market was able to deliver, boosting the market atmosphere and promoting the overall sales and marketing of polyester factories. PTA The current price is supported. Can human factors change in the special period of supply and demand mismatch? PTA The long haze market?

High inventory is difficult to mitigate At the beginning of this year, under the condition of poor polyester demand and supply growth, PTA Open fast storage process, demand in the off-season plus events, polyester start-up than expected, social circulation inventory accelerated, with the spot market continued to weaken, the base continued to decline, resulting in some spot stocks quickly into the futures, resulting in the rapid rise of futures stocks, futures stocks increased faster than current stock growth. By Five month Twenty-nine Day, PTA Inventory in circulation Two hundred and forty-nine point seven nine Ten thousand tons, PTA Warehouse Receipt Inventory One hundred and sixteen point zero five Ten thousand tons, PTA Total inventory Three hundred and sixty-five point eight four Ten thousand tons Two thousand and fifteen The new high is expected over the next few years. PTA Inventory will remain high.

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Poor supply and demand ? The base continues to be weak: By the end of the month, domestic PTA The overall load of the device is stable. 86.24% ( Two Hengli Petrochemical increased in August 4#250 Ten thousand tons, PTA Domestic effective capacity base adjusted to Five thousand two hundred and thirty-nine 10 million tons); the comprehensive operation of polyester is stable. 86.72% ( Five month Twenty-eight The New Asia China new plant has been put into operation, and the polyester production base has been repaired to Six thousand one hundred and twelve Ten thousand tons / Year). In the middle of the Han Dynasty Two hundred and twenty The impact of out of schedule parking on 10000 ton production lines. PTA Supply and demand are basically in equilibrium, but the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester industry chain is difficult to alleviate in the short term. PTA High storage will continue. Under the condition of poor supply and demand PTA The basis is always in the futures market. Five End of month PTA The base is basically maintained. -120 The weak level, the weak base and short term no delivery restrictions will continue to drain part of the current stock, futures stocks will rise again.

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Macro and crude oil: In recent days, traders have been worried about the global economic slowdown. The US stock market has been selling sharply, and the market is worried that the global blockade may continue. The prospect of stimulus measures may not be enough to keep pace with the unemployment and business failures. The impact of the epidemic is expected to last longer. In terms of crude oil, oil prices have been rising steadily in recent days under the expectation of reduced supply and better demand. In the short term, we need to be cautious about the persistence of price unilateralism. In the later stage, if there is a deviation in demand or supply side, we should pay attention to adjusting risks, especially the global economic weakness and the tightening of trade situation. 30-35 The US dollar has corporate profits, and the upward risk of crude oil remains.

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Summary and recommendations: Although futures stocks are driven by a weak basis, the flow of stocks is drained, resulting in reduced inventory on the surface but not by actual digestion. Current crude oil Thirty-five The rally was slow and the cost support weakened. PTA Returning to the pattern of supply and demand, and the special period of supply and demand mismatch, human factors or the support for the current period, but the supply and demand contradictions based on the long-term accumulation of the industrial chain will still restrict the rising space, and it is difficult to get out of the haze market in the short term. 09 Pressure reference above contract Three thousand and eight hundred Yuan line.