The Epidemic Is Unsealed, And The Off-Season Comes Again: Can Textile Enterprises Wait For "Golden Nine Silver Ten"?

At present, as many countries have begun to unseal and resume normal social life, textile orders have also increased, but judging from the current market development situation, they are still in a state of "serious imbalance between supply and demand". According to the reporter, orders on the market, regardless of size, are fierce competition. Entering the June, the market confidence of spinning enterprises is even more insufficient. Enterprises generally believe that the downstream market will enter the off-season whether domestic demand or foreign trade, and the cotton textile industry will face the big test again. The small and medium-sized enterprises that have just gasped for breath before the outbreak will again face the crisis of reducing production and shutting down.

4, May production and sales warming

Domestic demand market plays a role

According to the survey, since the late April, the production and sale of cotton yarn in spinning enterprises has improved significantly compared with the previous two months. The stock of finished products in some cotton mills has declined, and the pressure on cash flow has gradually eased.

A 60 thousand spinning enterprise in Jiaozuo, Henan, said that the company mainly purchases low-grade Xinjiang cotton (inland bank), and the main product is C40, C32, C26 yarn bleached with high package. This year's cotton picking machine in southern Xinjiang is more suitable for cotton mills to match cotton. On the one hand, the impurities are generally lower than those in the northern Xinjiang. Generally, it is not necessary to pick three silk and two impurities. The other side of the southern part of Xinjiang is short of cotton futures delivery warehouses, and traders and processing enterprises have high enthusiasm and large quantity of sales to the mainland warehouse.

Part of the textile and garment enterprises feedback, 4, May production and sales warming mainly from the domestic market, autumn and winter orders and phasing revenge consumption triggered. In addition, in May, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other coastal areas weaving, clothing and foreign trade companies received orders from Europe, the United States and Japan and South Korea, as well as the restart of supply contracts in 3 and April, but the number of small quantities, lots of batches and low profits were more common. Overall, as the global new crown is still at a high risk stage, textile and apparel orders and trade, transportation, retail and so on are only limited recovery in developed countries such as Europe and the United States, coupled with the large fluctuations in exchange rates and uncertainties in Sino US trade relations. Both sides of the contract are very cautious. There are not many enterprises that spin out orders to restore 30%~50%, and the domestic consumer market continues to play a "mainstay". Effect.

Although production and sales increased in 4 and May, the market was not fully recovered. "Orders on the market, no matter big or small, are all very competitive. The single bid situation leads to confusion in all the links, and the operability is very unstable. At present, we need to invest more energy in order to ensure the smooth delivery of orders. The head of a spinning factory in Hebei said that the current market performance was mediocre, although the conventional yarn was also shipped normally, but the quantity was not large, especially the sales situation of pure cotton yarn was more general. The price of the fabric and fabric is still low, and the profit margins are limited.

Enterprises rush to compete alone

Price war, limited profit

A textile enterprise mainly producing colored spun yarn in Xiaoshan, Hangzhou, has a total scale of about 100 thousand spindles. Its products are complete and abundant, ranging from 7 to 50. The current cotton mill operating rate is over 80%. The factory said it was affected by the new crown epidemic situation this year, and the orders had been greatly affected. In recent months, the orders received were sporadic small orders. Although the operating rate of the factories was relatively high, the order problem was always the biggest worry. Fortunately, recently, I have received one or two large orders, which can probably produce a month's volume, and I can temporarily feel at ease in the short term.

However, the factory leader does not think that the big list is a sign that the market is better. He said: "in fact, the big list in the market has always been there, but only a small quantity. In order to receive the large list, the price competition between the factories is fierce, and competition is fierce. Even if the list is received, there is no profit, just to keep the machine running and wait for the market to get better."

Another 50 thousand spindles pure cotton yarn factory is mainly produced by combing 21, 32, 40 package bleached yarns. As the yarn is more expensive, the price is 1000 yuan / ton ~2000 yuan / ton of cotton blended with the same grade, the price of combed 32 yarns can be sold to 20000 yuan / ton, but the current order situation is not very optimistic, it only maintains about 10 days. There are many other industries in the cotton mill group, so cash flow is more abundant. Even if the order is small, it is not willing to stop work and leave workers, because the workers are easy to come back after their holidays.

Downstream into the market off-season

Waiting for the arrival of "golden nine silver ten"

Spinning enterprises said that in the past 6 and July, the market was off-season. As for exports, the European Union, one of the most important exporters, liked to put high temperature holidays between 7~9 months. France, Italy, Holland and other countries should have at least a month or so, so the export orders for the 6 and July markets were relatively low, and 8 and September would increase again, two or three months before Christmas. To the peak, that is, "golden nine silver ten". Therefore, we are not very optimistic about the downstream market in the next 6 and July, and think that the market will not improve until August.

From the perspective of consumption habits and downstream replenishment time, domestic demand will be in the off-season in 7 and August, and orders will be in a state of slack. Industry experts said that some of the small and medium-sized enterprises may face pressure to cut production, shut down, vacation or even shut down in the month of 6~9. The first reason is that the probability of a new outbreak of the second wave in autumn and winter is increasing. Two, the trend of Sino US economic and trade relations is becoming more and more subtle, the risk of trade friction is rising again, the export environment of textile and clothing is changing again, and the three is the pressure of domestic employment and income. Experts believe that the global consumption of cotton and textiles has been stagnant for about two months this year. The imbalance between supply and demand of cotton and finished products is unlikely to change completely in the short term. The recovery of the overall industrial chain is still expected to take a year or even longer.

With regard to the impact of the epidemic, spinning enterprises say that the development of the epidemic in the world has had a negative impact on exports. On the one hand, in the early days of the outbreak of foreign epidemic, a large number of orders have been cancelled, some of them have been rapidly completed, and customers have suddenly cancelled their orders, forming a certain order loss. Second, the new export orders have been greatly reduced. The restrictions on ports and people caused by the outbreak of the epidemic have led to a significant reduction in the elasticity of clothing consumption. A large number of clothing stores have been closed, and many factories which rely on foreign trade are facing a situation of no single connection. The third is that some export orders arrive at the port of destination, and the customers fail, customers refuse to pick up the goods, and the ports are closed. Of course, such a situation is only a small number, but it also makes the factory extremely cautious when taking the extra orders, and it is also more severe in terms of payment. Otherwise, it would rather not accept it, so it is difficult for the two sides to reach an agreement and the last part of the order is lost to Southeast Asia.