Where Will The Price Of Polyester Products And Polyester Filament Go To The 1 Million 550 Thousand Ton Polyester Plant?

For polyester filament, downstream demand has been difficult to effectively support its market. In recent stages, production and marketing have broken down hundreds of times, relying solely on crude oil prices to pull up PTA and ethylene glycol prices, thereby driving polyester filament prices to pick up, stimulating textile manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm. Crude oil prices have dropped slightly, polyester production and sales have obvious signs of slipping, polyester products prices also declined significantly.

In the market trend of polyester market is not optimistic, in June, some of the existing polyester plant is expected to exist, the total capacity of about 1 million 550 thousand tons. Among them, Sheng Hong has 250 thousand tons of polyester filament device, which is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 6. Hengli Hengke 200 thousand tons polyester filament plant is expected to be put into operation in late June.

In fact, with the market in the first half of this year, the polyester plant will be put into production again and again. The polyester market itself is weak, and the polyester raw material end and the downstream weaving end have no obvious advantages.

This year, affected by the new crown epidemic, the demand for global textile and apparel products has sharply decreased, thus greatly reducing the speed of polyester products. The polyester market has started accumulating stocks. Although part of the time has been stimulated by the conventional replenishment or news, the weaving factories will replenish the goods, but they will go to a wavelet stock. But in general, the stock market of some polyester products is still in a relatively high position.

As of June 8th, the average stock of pet factories was about 27 days, compared with 21 days in the same period last year, compared with 10 days in 2018. Subdivision, the current polyester FDY stock in about 18 days, last year in about 16 days, in 2018 about 7 days; at present, polyester POY stock in about 9.5 days, last year in about 9 days, in 2018 about 6 days; polyester DTY changed little, now in 28 days, near the first two years in the same period maintained at 24 days.

As can be seen from the table, the largest change in inventory is the polyester FDY. Because it is the most widely used, it has become the most difficult product to sell in this year's market. POY, because of many preferential sales promotions this year, has a significant effect on storehouse, and the stock days are close to the same period in the previous year. DTY is as high as the previous three stocks.

In the near term, we have always said that for the polyester market, it is now in a hot and cold situation. The rise of polyester prices and the outbreak of production and marketing depend heavily on the strong rebound of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol. PTA and ethylene glycol began to pick up recently due to the high oil market, and the price increased significantly compared with April.

However, judging from the overall fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol, there is still a big weak expectation in late stage, because of high inventory. As of June 5th, PTA's social inventory was close to 2 million 290 thousand tons, and ethylene glycol social inventory was near 1 million 334 thousand tons, which renewed the new inventory in the year.

On the PTA side, the PTA installations of many production enterprises are in the parking condition recently. As of 5 days, the average operating rate of PTA is about 77.6%, which has been reduced compared with the previous stage. PTA is able to digest part of the inventory, but due to the severe storage in the early stage, the trend of high inventory in the short term will continue.

In terms of ethylene glycol, excluding the inventory pressure at the import side, the overall operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol has been on the low side in recent years, but it is difficult to consume so many stocks due to the demand for polyester end, which has led to a continuous inventory of ethylene glycol even at a low rate in recent 51.9% years. Part of the coal to ethylene plant announced plans to restart, most of which are concentrated in mid 6 months. In July, it is expected to feel the increase in domestic supply, which will undoubtedly add to the current high inventory pressure.

Since the beginning of this year, the vast majority of weaving factories are in a state of extreme production and marketing. The demand recovery is slow, and the lack of order tracking has led many weaving factories to reduce production and reduce production in April. Entering the May, the order situation is only partially improved. The overall market trend is still uncertain, the conventional products are unsalable, the market has no bright spots to support, and the products are difficult to carry goods, resulting in the weaving factories continuing to enter the tired inventory cycle.

According to the sample enterprises of China's silk net inspection, there are about 43 days in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and 41 days in the same period last year, while in the same period in 2018, it is only about 25 days. Judging from the current market situation, fierce competition in domestic trade, foreign trade recovery difficulties, weaving manufacturers will continue to inventory, if there is no substantial change in the market outlook, manufacturers start rate or further decline.