Epidemic Situation Affects Export Commodity Structure Textile Market "Hot And Cold" (15-19 June 2020)

First, domestic cotton yarn futures and spot prices both fell.

This week, domestic cotton yarn futures and spot prices both fell. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 18725 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 20 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference 6819 yuan / ton, compared with last week to expand 68 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price 19232 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 281 yuan / ton, higher than spot 507 yuan / ton, the difference narrowed 261 yuan / ton last week.

Two, international yarn prices fell slightly.

Recently, under the support of the downstream demand increase, Pakistan cotton mill increased the rate of start-up, and manufacturers began to sell stocks quickly.

(1) 32 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 18468 yuan / ton, down 24 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] expanded 4 yuan / ton to 257 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the average price of Vietnam port delivery was 18540 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Vietnam narrowed 16 yuan / ton to 185 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 17436 yuan / ton, down 26 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between China and India was 10 yuan / ton to 368 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 17288 yuan / ton, down 12 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan narrowed 4 yuan / ton to 516 yuan / ton last week.

(three) 10 rotor spinning

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 12400 yuan / ton, which remained stable for 4 weeks. The price difference between China and India was reduced by 7 yuan / ton to -533 yuan / ton last week.

Three, polyester, short, sticky short prices fell.

This week, the national cotton market monitoring system CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 5752 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 128 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference increased 40 yuan / ton to 6154 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price 8720 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 80 yuan / ton, cotton sticky price difference narrowed 8 yuan / ton to 3186 yuan / ton last week.

Four, outlook for the future

1, 1-5 month clothing retail sales fell 23.5% year-on-year, clothing consumption is still weak.

According to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in May 2020, the industrial added value of above scale industries increased by 4.4% in real terms, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in April. In the 41 categories of industries, 30 industries increased year by year, and the textile industry grew by 4.3%. But in May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needles and textile consumer goods (100 million yuan) fell by 0.6% over the same period of May, while the cumulative value of 1-5 months decreased by 23.5% compared with the same period last year, and clothing consumption remained weak.

2, clothing exports in May dropped by 26.93% over the same period last year.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of clothing (including clothing and accessories) decreased by 26.93% in May 2020 compared with that of the previous year. In 1-5 months, the total export volume of clothing in China dropped by 22.80% over the same period last year. Since mid May, overseas orders have been gradually restored, but affected by the epidemic, the export of spun garments is worse than that of the same period last year.

3, ITMF: orders plunged faster than 40% or resurgence in the fourth quarter of this year.

Recently, in order to understand the impact of the new crown epidemic on the global textile industry chain, the International Federation of textile manufacturers (ITMF) conducted fourth surveys in 600 members worldwide. According to the survey, textile orders in the world dropped by more than 40% from the outbreak of March 1, 2020 pandemic to June 8, 2020. In the future, textile companies expect orders to fall by 32%. In addition, 20% of respondents expect textile orders to recover in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In the wake of the Dragon Boat Festival, enterprises have different arrangements for their vacation. Some enterprises believe that this year has been in a low starting state. At present, the overall market of cotton yarn is still slack, the high yarn market is weaker than that of low count yarn, and the textile enterprises sell more stock at the same price. The rise of cotton price has not driven the price of yarn to rise. Textile enterprises are not optimistic about their operation. Some enterprises have received orders to return to China after breaking the order, such as a long drought. The situation will be gradually reduced, and the shortage of orders is still the biggest worry for enterprises. With the arrival of the traditional off-season, the impact of superimposed epidemics on the structure of export commodities will continue to pressure textile and garment exports, while the digestion of domestic demand is limited. It is expected that the cotton yarn market will further weaken without other favorable factors.

The price difference in [1] is the difference between domestic yarn price and foreign yarn price.