Domestic Cotton Fluctuates At 12000 Yuan, And Global Textile Orders Are Expected To Resume In The Fourth Quarter.

Market quotation

　　 01 domestic cotton prices fell first and then rose.

Last week, Beijing reappeared the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the market sentiment was once intense, then the central bank reduced the policy warm breeze to follow, the domestic cotton price first fell then rises, the whole has dropped somewhat. The national cotton price B index, representing mainland standard grade lint sales, was 12011, down 72 yuan / ton compared with June 12th, a decrease of 0.6%, and the settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 11900 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton compared with June 12th, or 0.25%.

02 international cotton prices overall stable

Last week, the market rebounded by the US retail sales figures in May. The rebound in the US multi state epidemic and the so-called "related laws" in the US made the Sino US relations tense again, and so on, and the rebound of international cotton prices was blocked. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is 68.14 cents / pound. The price of RMB converted to RMB 1% yuan is 11935 yuan / ton, representing an increase of 21 yuan / ton, or 0.18%, compared with June 12th.

03 polyester staple fiber price cut

Last week, most of the staple staple fiber manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offered stable quotations and negotiated shipment. 1.4D's mainstream offer was about 5950-6150 yuan / ton, or about 5700-5850 yuan per ton. The price of Fujian polyester staple fiber has been kept stable, the market atmosphere is light, and shipping is being discussed. 1.4D offers 6100 yuan / ton short distance to deliver, solid negotiation or 5800-6000 yuan / ton. The price adjustment of polyester staple fiber in Shandong and Hebei is weak, and negotiations are mainly about shipping. 1.4D talks about half light or talks at 5750-5900 yuan / ton. In June 19th, the polyester staple price index closed at 5730 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton compared with June 12th, a decrease of 1.55%.

04 viscose staple prices fell slightly.

Viscose staple fiber atmosphere calm, demand changes little, downstream textile mill orders are not many, many times buying viscose staple fiber, inventory backlog slow digestion, expectations for the market is pessimistic. At present, the price of mid end viscose staple fiber is 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end viscose staple fiber is 9000-9200 yuan / ton. Viscose staple fiber price index closed at 8700 yuan / ton in June 19th, down 100 yuan / ton compared with June 12th, a decrease of 1.14%.

05 domestic cotton yarn fell slightly, yarn price increased locally.

Last week, the textile market loomed in the off-season, and the sale of cotton yarn was reduced, and combed yarn decreased more than conventional yarns. The price of cotton yarn in India has steadily increased, and the price of cotton yarn in other major importing countries has been stable. The price of pure cotton 32S is 18700 yuan / ton. Polyester 32S quoted 9980 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous stage. The market of the cotton yarn market is general, and the cotton 30S maintains 12400 yuan / ton. The conventional yarn is 473 yuan / ton less than the domestic yarn. The downstream cotton cloth is small and the price is stable.

Industry operation

01ITMF: global textile orders are likely to revive in the fourth quarter of this year.

According to the latest report of the International Federation of textile manufacturers (ITMF), global textile orders may revive in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The survey showed that textile orders in the world dropped by more than 40% from March 1, 2020 to June 8, 2020. Orders in all sectors of the supply chain generally declined, with fiber manufacturers' orders falling by 42%, turnover decreased by 33%, orders for cotton mills dropped by 44%, and turnover decreased by 33%. The order of the weaving mill decreased by 46% and the turnover decreased by 33%. Orders for garment manufacturers fell by 37%, and turnover fell by 31%.

Nevertheless, there is still a glimmer of hope and optimism in the industry chain. When asked when they expected the business to reach a pre crisis level, about 23% said they expected the order to resume in the first quarter of 2021 and 21% expected to resume in the second quarter of 2021. 14% of respondents expected to recover in the third quarter of 2021, while 20% of respondents expected to recover in the fourth quarter of 2020.

02 raw material shock caused market downturn or early Dragon Boat Festival leave

According to the feedback situation of some cotton warehouse in the mainland, inventory is relatively stable at present, and the number of sunrise bank is more obvious than that of futures. According to feedback from some textile factories, the epidemic situation has not been fully controlled at home and abroad, and there is no rapid digestion of yarn inventory. If there is bad news in the market, spinning enterprises will surely lower the purchase price. The original downstream sales were bleak, coupled with the raw material cotton futures market with a large fluctuation. The willingness to replenishment of textile enterprises has dropped to freezing point. But even so, most of the textile companies are reluctant to lower prices, mainly due to the rising price of lint and the rising cost of the lint.

At present, the cotton yarn market has entered the off-season in June. Meanwhile, overseas epidemic has not been well controlled. Beijing has reproduced local confirmed cases, and the market is worried that the outbreak will erupt again. The above double factors superimpose the original cotton sales market which is not smooth, and the market is even more light.

03 cotton mill reduces product grade, cloth factory stock rises slightly.

From the customer survey of cotton textile enterprises in the middle reaches, the start-up rate of enterprises in recent years has been reduced compared with that in May. The demand for OE yarn and 10-16S ring spinning in weaving factories and clothing enterprises has been reduced obviously. In addition, the demand of 50S and above combed and combed yarn continues to decline. Some large and medium sized cotton mills in Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have suspended production over 60S (mainly to digest inventory, arrange for large orders according to requirements), and instead focus on producing C21S, 26S, 32S, 40S and JC40S.

A cotton mill in Henan said that the 60S combs and combed yarn had been discontinued. Taking into account that the second half of 2020 will continue to be mainly domestic sales, the clothing in 2021 is also mainly required for conventional 21S-40S. Therefore, in order to ensure production, we should focus on the production of combed cotton yarn, and the shortage of orders can be stored in storage.

It is understood that the current domestic cotton yarn, grey cloth "demotion" phenomenon is more common. First, the number of yarn counts is dominated by 26S, 32S and 40S. In the past few years, some enterprises that only spun 40S and above also began to cut down the grade of products; two, there was also a drop in cotton grading (real estate cotton procurement was relatively active). Xinjiang's high quality "double 29, double 30" lint was mostly priced less than the city; three was to abandon the low profit export list, intensify the domestic sales Bureau, take the initiative to reduce product grades, ensure product diversification and meet customer needs.

04 increase in demand, Pakistan yarn export prices continue to rise

In recent weeks, textile production and prices began to pick up in Pakistan, and demand recovered further, and factories began to run at full capacity.

In the week, with the support of the downstream demand increasing, the domestic and export prices of Pakistan cotton yarn both rose, and 30 domestic combed yarn increased by 4.19%. The cotton mill continued to increase the starting rate, and the workers resumed production after several weeks at home.

Increased demand will provide strong support for cotton yarn prices in the coming weeks, and manufacturers will also start selling stocks quickly. The export price of Pakistan increased significantly, and 30 of the combed yarn rose to 2.55 US dollars / kg. Driven by China's import demand, the export price of Pakistan will continue to rise in the coming week.

With the rise of yarn price and the fall of domestic cotton prices and import cotton prices, the profits of Pakistan cotton mill began to improve.

Industry policies and trends

01 China will grant zero tariff treatment to 97% of taxable products in Bangladesh.

According to the announcement of the State Council, according to the promise of zero tariff treatment for the 97% tariff products of the least developed countries in China, which is established by the least developed countries in China, according to the exchange of information between our country and People's Republic of Bangladesh, since July 1, 2020, the preferential tariff rate of zero tax rate is applicable to 97% taxable items originally produced in People's Republic of Bangladesh. 97% the tax items are the 5161 tax items marked "beneficiary LD" in the preferential tariff column of the People's Republic of China import and export tariff code (2020) (9 of the Tax Commission announcement [2019] 9), 2911 tax items of "beneficiary country 1LD1", and 184 tax items of "beneficiary country 2LD2", which amount to 8256 tax items.

02200 million textile and garment industrial park projects settled in Shache

In June 20th, Xinjiang Shache county held the foundation laying ceremony of the textile and garment industrial park project.

It is understood that the Shache textile and garment industrial park project is invested and built by Xinjiang Zhongtai group, with a total investment of 2 million yuan and a total investment of 6 billion yuan. The first phase of planning and construction of 500 thousand ingots and investment is about 1 billion 900 million yuan. The project is planned to be put into operation at the end of 2021. After the completion of the project, the target of 2 billion yuan of annual sales income can be achieved, directly solving the employment of 2500 people, and indirectly driving 10 thousand to 50 thousand employees.

03 the 127th Online Fair opened thousands of textile and garment exhibitors to add exhibits.

In June 15th, the 127th online Canton Fair was officially opened. This is the first time that the Canton Fair has been moving onto the cloud for the first time in 63 years. During the 10 day exhibition, the world premiere and the first product of the Canton Fair are concentrated on presenting a "Chinese banquet" for global buyers.

According to the official website of the exhibition, thousands of textile and garment exhibitors have added exhibits. According to the previous investigation of downstream textile enterprises, textile and garment foreign trade orders have been greatly reduced since the outbreak of overseas epidemic. So far, although domestic consumption has gradually recovered, export orders are still few. The Canton Fair has become an excellent opportunity for these companies to retrieve orders in autumn and winter. From the perspective of the distribution of textile enterprises, enterprises such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have all taken part in the enterprises. Some of the textile companies that had not participated in the Canton Fair in the past year also appeared in this year. This year's exhibition will hold about 60 online new product launches, focusing on the latest products of quality enterprises.

04 contract with Alibaba, Henan Anyang to build cross-border textile and garment industrial belt

In June 10th, the Anyang municipal government signed a contract with Alibaba (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd., through the guidance of local textile enterprises to enter the global fast selling platform. The two sides will jointly build a "cross border electricity supplier textile and garment industry belt" in Anyang, and work together to develop the global textile and garment market.

Anyang is an important textile industry base in Henan province and even the whole country. At present, there are more than 8000 knitted garment enterprises in the city, of which more than 100 enterprises are above Designated Size, and 0 to 3 years old children's clothing production capacity accounts for 60% of the country's total. However, Anyang textile industry is also facing many challenges such as brand war and resource war. The two sides agreed in the agreement that they will promote Anyang's production factories and trade enterprises to enter the global fast selling platform and brand operation, strive to create global brands and enhance the added value of the industry. In order to build a deep cooperation between Anyang's "cross-border electricity supplier textile and garment industry belt" and jointly invest resources, the third party service providers are jointly selected for the rapid sale in Anyang area. The company provides localization services, selects local benchmarking enterprises, and provides marketing, traffic and other support by fast selling through the fast selling platform.

Deepening production reduction

01 oil prices continue to rebound

　　 Last week, crude oil prices basically extended the previous rebound trend. OPEC deepened oil production prospects to boost oil prices, but worries about the epidemic also dragged down prices. Crude oil rose 8.7% last week, crude oil fell sharply since Monday, and then continued to rebound. On Wednesday, OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC members will have room to relax production restrictions later this year. The agency estimates that the global demand for its crude oil will rise to 27 million 800 thousand barrels per day in the third quarter and rise to 31 million 200 thousand barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2020. By comparison, OPEC production in May was 242 thousand barrels per day, and this figure seems to increase only slightly in June. OPEC warned in a monthly report that despite demand improvements, the market will remain in surplus in the second half of the year. The group said it expects OPEC production to be about 300 thousand barrels per day higher than previously expected. At present, oil prices are continuing to rebound, driven by economic recovery (the biggest monthly growth rate in US retail sales) and the hope of overcoming the epidemic, as well as the good performance of OPEC.

Uncertainties remain.

01 short-term fluctuations in exchange rates

　　 Last week, the RMB exchange rate as a whole was on the decline. On Friday, it recorded a 7.0775 weekly decline of about 0.049%. The pressure of the fall mainly stems from the following points: first, the domestic epidemic has been repeated; Beijing has raised the level of emergency response; the two outbreak of the outbreak has caused market concern; the two is affected by the strong US dollar index; the RMB exchange rate is under pressure; the three is the military upgrading of China and India for seven weeks in Himalaya, and four is the worsening of Sino US relations, adding that Trump and China. "Complete decoupling" is still a policy option. At present, Sino US relations are still the main driving factors for the recent RMB exchange rate. In the short term, if there is no impact of Sino US incident and the effective control of domestic epidemic, the trend of RMB exchange rate will continue to remain stable.