2020 Viscose Staple Semi Annual Report: All Kinds Of Embarrassment At Historic Low Prices

Viscose staple fiber has gone through Two thousand and nineteen Year Four The market is in urgent need of a rebound or even reversing the market to lead the industry chain to rest and breathe, but things are impermanent. Two thousand and twenty The industry was affected by the new epidemic situation in the first year of the year, and the industrial chain bottom-up pressure was forced. Two thousand and twenty The price of viscose staple fiber has once again set a new low in the first half of this year. At the same time, the new low price is also highlighting the industry's high inventory, negative profits and low start-up difficulties.

• The epidemic has made the market worse, and viscose staple prices have set a new low.

surface One Viscose staple fiber industry chain Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 Monthly average price year-on-year

Unit: Yuan / ton

Viscose staple fiber Two thousand and nineteen The year has passed. Four During the rally, the intensity of the rebound has been slightly more than once, and this year we should be breathing. But since the beginning of this year, public health and safety incidents have broken out in China, and the chain of the lower end of the textile has been suspended obviously until the beginning of the year. Two month Ten In the future, the industry started to improve gradually, but the textile enterprises just entered the production schedule. Three In June, foreign investment entered a deeper and more serious situation. In the textile industry, the pressure on exports is even higher than before. At this stage, the price of viscose staple and cotton yarn has both set a new low in history. Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 The average price of viscose staple fell. Nine thousand three hundred and fifty-six point four seven Year-on-year -25.37% , R30S Average price in the first half of the year Thirteen thousand two hundred and forty-one point seven one element / Tons, year-on-year -23.96% 。

chart 12011-2020 Price chart of viscose staple fiber and man cotton yarn

• Volume and price fell, viscose staple cash flow negative situation is also expanding.

stay 2015-2017 During the year, the cash flow of viscose staple fiber maintained a good momentum, which was mainly supported by supply side tightening. However, with the increase of profits, viscose staple fiber preparation and production increased, and the market began to gradually enter the imbalance between supply and demand, which led to the cash flow declining year by year. 2019-2020 In 2009, the price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall, which accelerated the industry's loss. Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 Month, viscose staple cash flow has been reduced to -459.71 element / Tons, year-on-year -305.11% 。

chart 22015-2020 Cash flow chart of viscose staple fiber in 2006

However, the seriousness of the problem is not the loss of viscose staple, but the fact that the whole chain is almost unprofitable. For its main downstream cotton yarn, the processing fee is also reduced year by year. Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 Month, R30S Average processing fee in the first half of the year Three thousand eight hundred and eighty-five element / Tons, down year on year 20.37% 。 The cost pressure of upstream dissolving pulp is forcing domestic pulp factories to stop production.

surface 22016-2020 Changes in processing cost of cotton yarn per year

Unit: Yuan / ton

• Two thousand and twenty The production capacity of viscose staple fiber was limited in recent years, but the capacity utilization rate dropped to the lowest level.

Following Jiangxi second Twelve point five Ten thousand tons / New viscose staple fiber line Two thousand and twenty Completed in the first half of the year, which means close. Five The new production capacity of viscose staple fiber has come to an end in 2008, and the domestic viscose staple fiber industry has no obvious new capacity plan. According to long Zhong information statistics, the total production capacity of viscose staple in the first half of the year Five hundred and twenty-four point five Ten thousand tons (including Taiwan), capacity increased by only a year ago. 1.06% (excluding invalid capacity) Two thousand and nineteen Annual capacity growth slowed down. Eight Percentage point, but even if the viscose staple fiber production capacity growth declined, but the demand is shrinking, resulting in Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 Monthly viscose staple fiber utilization rate dropped to historic lows 68.04% Year-on-year decline Eight point seven nine A percentage point.

chart 32015-2020 Productivity and utilization rate of viscose staple fibres

Capacity change is limited, and the rate of start-up decline is also caused. Two thousand and twenty The decline of viscose staple fiber output in the first half of this year, according to the statistics of long Zhong information, Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 In June, the production of viscose staple fiber in mainland China was One hundred and seventy-five point one three 10000 tons, down year on year Eighteen point seven three 10000 tons, fall rate 9.66% 。

chart 42019-2020 Monthly output of viscose staple fiber

Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 Month, mainland China viscose staple production year-on-year fall 9.66% , ? However, during the first half of the year, the spinning enterprises first experienced the Spring Festival's frequent stops, and one after another came the Qingming May 1 holiday. Even during the Dragon Boat Festival, some enterprises also opt for a leave of absence. The export led by the outbreak forced the cotton spinning enterprises to ease some pressure by various holiday intentions. Two thousand and twenty year 1-6 In June, the average starting rate of the cotton yarn industry is only. 59% Year-on-year decline Twenty-one A percentage point.

Viscose staple fiber is not only subject to the direct downstream of the domestic demand for shrinkage, but also the external factors directly affect the shrinkage of viscose staple products exports.

surface Three Exports of viscose staple and downstream products year-on-year

Therefore, the imbalance between supply and demand, viscose staple fiber in the first half of the finished product inventory continued to maintain high. According to long Zhong information statistics, Two thousand and twenty year Five At the beginning of the month, the finished product inventory of viscose staple fiber factory was as high as Thirty-nine More than ten thousand tons, discount stock days Twenty-seven point three Days, but the number of days can be as high as the number of days when the factory is in the same period of production. Forty-three God.

chart Five Change of finished product inventory in viscose staple fiber plant

• Outlook for the future

The first half of the year is fleeting, but at present, the outbreaks have not yet been twisted, which still brings more risks and uncertainties to the textile raw material market. Viscose staple fiber industry is also facing greater challenges.

Worry one . In the first half of the year, profits were not good, cash flow was tight or suppressed in the second half of the year.

After a long period of limited production and bidding, most of the cotton yarn enterprises in the first half of the year are in a small profit or even a loss situation, and the current external epidemic is repeated, and at the same time, the value of domestic sales is off-season. The cotton yarn industry is reappearing in the bidding state. However, under the influence of limited processing fees, if the factory increases its price again, it will cause its own losses, but if the inventory of the finished products in the current price industry is increased or increased, at the same time, It is high temperature and high humidity, so it is affected by many contradictions. Seven In mid March, the intention of cotton yarn enterprises to reduce production again began to increase, and then superimposed on factories for a long time without profit or even loss operation in the first half of the year, which will lead to greater pressure on cash flow of cotton yarn throughout the whole year. Therefore, whether it is cotton price competition or production reduction in recent months, or the annual cash flow restriction, or inhibit the purchase demand of viscose staple fiber by yarn enterprises.

Worry two . Viscose staple product inventory or growth again

At present, the finished product inventory of viscose staple fiber plant is even higher. Four Under the moon and Five At the beginning of the month, there was a downward trend, and immediately approaching the new round of stocking nodes for downstream viscose staple fibres. Once demand was followed up, the stock growth of viscose staple fibers could be suppressed, but the demand was likely to be described and limited. At the same time, most of the viscose staple fibers had already been completed in the first half of the year due to market restrictions, and the industry start-up rate in the second half of this year is likely to happen. In a relatively stable state.

Fig. 62019-2020 comparison of starting rate of viscose staple fiber industry

The supply side is relatively stable, and the demand side is insufficient, so the finished product inventory of viscose staple fiber plant is likely to grow again. However, in view of the current factory execution order, it is expected that a number of enterprises will be executed in the middle of the year, and the pressure of inventory will be again formed. Seven The end of the month or even the end of the month.

Worry three: lack of confidence, speculative demand reduction

Confidence belongs to gold, but self. Two thousand and eighteen Since the second half of the year, frequent traders have been thinking about viscose staple "historical low price" and continue to decline in limited space to start purchasing, but without any return or even loss, the confidence of the industry has been killed again and again, with the reason that "the epidemic will eventually end". 4-5 Clients who speculate on stockpiles in the month end up 6-7 The month is facing the outbreak of the outbreak of the external epidemic again and cautiously. Confidence is expected to be established. However, the market expectation is obviously insufficient. But if viscose staple producers choose to make a big price for risk aversion, though speculators can still buy viscose on the basis of "historical low price", the viscose staple fiber factory will also increase its own deficit and slightly run out of money.

However, judging from the industry situation, viscose staple fiber industry has gone through the long run. Two As the year goes down and the industry has no clear new capacity, it is expected that the price of products will also be gradually restored to value. Two thousand and twenty In the second half of the year, viscose staple fiber prices are still at historic lows, but have gone through. Three After the quarterly entanglements, it is estimated that Four The price of viscose staple fiber will gradually end in the quarter.