Starting A Ring Higher Than A Ring, Inventory Contradictions More And More Deep, Chemical Fiber Industry Chain Crazy Production Behind: Careful Crash!

Recently, Xiaobian found a very strange phenomenon, polyester industry chain operating rate, profit, inventory is in a very contradictory state.

In particular, the operating rate is the most obvious.

In terms of operation rate, polyester operation rate > weaving operation rate > dyeing plant operation rate

　　 As of July 10, the operating rate of polyester was about 91%, that of weaving factories in Shengze area was about 60-70%, and that of dyeing factories was about 55%.

In terms of profit and inventory, we can only make a general comparison due to the different cost, calculation method and calculation unit.

Profit: whether PTA or polyester products, grey cloth, are relatively miserable.

Due to its high processing cost, PTA's profit has been reduced to about 80 yuan / ton. At the same time, all products of polyester filament have been in a loss predicament, FDY product loss to 338 yuan / ton, POY product loss to 348 yuan / ton, DTY product loss to 388 yuan / ton. In terms of grey fabric, take 190T polyester taff as an example, which has been in deficit.

　　 Inventory: PTA inventory > polyester inventory > grey cloth inventory

At present, the PTA social circulation inventory has increased to around 2.32 million tons, the polyester market overall stock is around 27-37, and the gray cloth inventory in Shengze area has reached 45 days.

　　 Since this year, under the impact of the new crown epidemic, the global demand for textiles and clothing has sharply decreased, and the textile market has suffered a serious decline. Both the quantity and price of products have fallen, and the production and sales of weaving manufacturers are difficult to level, resulting in the continuous increase of inventory. The lack of orders of weaving enterprises began to reduce the operation, and the demand for raw materials of polyester was further reduced.

Polyester factory in the production and sales downturn and inventory increase, should be to start to reduce production load operation. Recently, although 13 enterprises have implemented production restriction and price protection, from the perspective of scale, the quantity of production restriction and price protection of these 13 enterprises is not large. Large factories like Hengli have not been added in. Shenghong's limited production is only polyester chips, with a relatively general scale. Therefore, the start-up rate of polyester factories is relatively stable.

"Inverted pyramid" industrial model

As we all know, the textile industry chain is an "inverted pyramid" model. Terminal clothing largely determines the market situation of each link in the upstream. In fact, the market of terminal clothing can be seen from the dyeing factory. When grey cloth is made into fabric, it must go through the dyeing factory. At present, the operation rate of dyeing plants is only about 55%, which is the lowest operating rate of the industrial chain.

In terms of clothing, the impact of the epidemic has become more and more obvious. Recently, many well-known clothing enterprises have closed down, among which brooks is the most popular Brothers, a clothing brand known as "special clothes for presidential inauguration ceremony", has been worn by 40 of the 45 presidents in the United States, including Theodore Roosevelt, Kennedy, Ford, George Bush and Clinton. In recent years, two American presidents, Trump and Obama, are no exception. The brand has even attracted former French President Jacques Chirac to shop in the United States to buy shirts.

Brooks brothers is only one of the representative clothing enterprises, but it can also prove that the prospect of clothing market this year is indeed worrying. If the clothing industry can't rise, the operating rate of the dyeing plant will naturally be difficult to improve.

If the dyeing factory is blocked, it means that the terminal demand can not be raised and the trade is not ideal. What are the consequences of pushing down from the bottom up?

The upper reaches collapse one by one!

　　1

The first to bear the brunt is the weaving factory

Weaving has become very obvious, manufacturers' inventory has soared to a high level in recent years. According to the statistical data of China silk capital network, the grey fabric inventory in Shengze has risen to around 45 days, which is the highest level in recent four years. At the same time, the majority of gray fabric price reduction is obvious, the price loss is common when selling goods. At present, it has entered the traditional off-season, and it is more difficult for manufacturers to receive orders. From the market visit, many weaving manufacturers are doing inventory at present. If the market continues to decline, it will be a high probability event to further reduce the construction.

　　2

Then there are polyester manufacturers

At present, polyester manufacturers have been in a cumulative inventory cycle, and the inventory has been at a high level since April. With the possibility of further decline in the starting rate of downstream weaving manufacturers, it is difficult to level production and sales. Even continuous polyester promotion and preferential treatment have rarely produced and sold more than 100 market. It can be seen that low polyester prices have been difficult for weaving manufacturers to pay. This year is another year when polyester production capacity is put into operation. Many units under construction are planned to be put into operation this year. In the first half of the year, more than 2.7 million tons will be put into operation, and there will be more in the second half. When the plant is put into operation continuously, the inventory is rising, but the profit is continuously losing. Once the terminal is blocked, the polyester manufacturer is likely to collapse.

　　3

Then PTA manufacturers

Due to the depression of downstream polyester market, PTA market is difficult to reverse at present. Besides the low price, inventory is also accumulating. Generally speaking, PTA maintenance is the most frequent period in the past years, but this year, it has been delayed and many units have been put into operation. Recently, another production line of Hengli 5 × 2.5 × 2.5 million tons PTA plant put into operation at the end of June has started trial production, and Zhongtai 1.2 million tons have been restarted. It is estimated that the output in July will remain above the level of 4.3 million tons, an increase of 300000 tons compared with June, and the PTA supply side will be further expanded. At the same time, PTA profit is not ideal. Under the pressure of difficult reduction of processing costs, cash flow shrinks obviously, even in the loss predicament. If the demand fails to keep up, it will face high risk.

At present, the weaving mill, polyester, PTA are in a very saturated state and difficult to go to the warehouse. Once a link at the final end is blocked, all the above links will face the risk of collapse. Especially polyester plant and PTA plant, with large capacity and concentrated capacity, will face greater risks compared with downstream links.