"Adjustment Mode" Of A Share Temporarily: Intensive "Cash Out" Of Social Security And Large Funds

On July 14, after several consecutive days of soaring prices, the A-share market slightly cooled.

On the same day, the hot topics collectively went out, and the big financial sector also showed a downward trend. However, the stock market was protected by the securities business plate at the end of the day, and the market atmosphere became active again. Finally, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Chengzhi index and gem index fell by 0.83%, 1.08% and 1.06% respectively, and the total net outflow of Beishang capital was 17.384 billion yuan.

The reporter of 21st century economic report has learned that although the market sentiment has cooled down on that day, most institutional investors are optimistic about a shares. Star Stone Investment chief research official Lei pointed out in an interview: "the short-term market growth is larger, faster, there is a certain callback pressure, but the upward trend will not change."

Wind data shows that since July 2, the total turnover of a shares in the whole market has been more than trillion yuan. Many investors, such as CITIC Securities and CITIC Securities, have not been informed about the short-term trading situation of securities companies such as CITIC, CITIC and so on.

But on the other side of the market continued to be active, the tide of reducing holdings also surged. On the evening of July 14, dozens of listed companies announced the reduction or pre reduction of shareholders' shares, among which there were many "big bull stocks" with the highest growth rate, such as Zhaoyi innovation, Shennan circuit, huiding technology, San'an optoelectronics and Mindray medical.

The market is booming and the stock reduction is on the rise

The A-share market is calling for a bull market. Since June, the market has been surging all the way from 2800 points, standing steadily at 3000 points, approaching 3500 points.

"On the one hand, the continuous implementation of capital market reform policies, and the scale of fund-raising on SMIC's international science and technology innovation board and financial sector reform have enhanced investors' confidence in making the capital market bigger and stronger; on the other hand, investors' expectations for the economic data of the second quarter and the second half of the year have brought about the repair of the valuation of the financial and cyclical sectors; in addition, with the overseas investment, China's listed capital market has become more and more popular With the accelerated entry of funds and residents' funds into the market, the effect of making money begins to appear. " Li Lifeng, deputy director of the Securities Research Institute, pointed out.

However, on the other side of the booming market, the tide of reducing holdings is rushing in.

According to the data compiled by the 21st century economic report, since June, 852 listed companies have experienced significant shareholder reduction, with a reference market value of 108.173 billion yuan. Among them, 16 listed companies with a reference market value of more than 1 billion yuan that have been reduced by important shareholders are mostly bull stocks that have soared in recent months.

The biggest reduction in market value is CSCEC. The accumulated amount of shares held by Anbang insurance company was 1.267 billion yuan. In addition, Ningde times, Huayou cobalt and ZTE are expected to cash in by shareholders, which are estimated to be 3.631 billion yuan, 3.117 billion yuan and 2.908 billion yuan respectively.

In addition to the strong intention of reducing the shareholding of listed companies, the listed companies also have more and more intention.

Since June, 436 listed companies have announced plans to reduce their shareholdings, involving 781 shareholders. It is estimated that the upper limit of shares to be reduced is as high as 7.971 billion shares. The reasons for the reduction are mainly due to the capital needs of shareholders, development planning, investment arrangement, improvement of personal life, etc.

The reporter of 21st century economic report found that in addition to senior executives, employees and private equity institutions, many value investors and industrial funds such as social security funds, national big gene, insurance capital and so on appeared.

On the evening of July 14, Zhaoyi innovation announced that it had received a notification letter from the state integrated circuit industry investment fund Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "big fund"), which held more than 5% of the company's shares. From July 8 to 13, the large fund reduced the total holding of 4.078 million shares of Zhaoyi innovation, accounting for 1% of the total share capital of the company. On the same day, Sanan optoelectronics also said that the large fund will reduce its 1% shares in the company from July 8 to 10.

This is not an example. The reporter found that in recent days, large funds have successively reduced their holdings of big bull stocks, such as Beidou Xingtong, huiding technology, Taiji industry, and San'an optoelectronics. Within a week, the estimated and actual market value of the state-owned large fund is about 6.179 billion yuan.

In addition, saimicroelectronics also announced in the evening of July 10 that Beijing integrated circuit fund had reduced its holdings of 12.42 million shares, accounting for 1.94% of the total share capital; the people's Insurance of China announced that the National Social Security Fund Council planned to reduce its A-share holdings by no more than 884 million shares through centralized bidding or block trading.

"In fact, the operation of national large fund and social security fund has been more market-oriented, and after the target of investment has accumulated a certain amount of increase, it is also a relatively normal phenomenon to reduce some holdings. For the market, at present, individual investors, foreign investors and institutional investors such as public offering and private placement still have strong motivation to enter the market. It is expected that the impact of the reduction on the market will be limited. " Fang Lei pointed out.

Li Lifeng also said that when the A-share market rose sharply, it was often accompanied by a substantial reduction of capital, which was a normal trading phenomenon. The behavior of "reduction" affects the fluctuation of A-share, but does not determine the direction of A-share operation. A-share has risen from 2646 this year to 3414 now, especially the rapid rise since July, which is bound to be accompanied by a wave of reduction. However, from the perspective of prolonging the operation cycle of A-share, the ultimate factor determining the direction of A-share market operation lies in the corporate profits of a shares, rather than the short-term reduction of capital.

Disputed gem valuation

Although in the view of the institutions, the impact of the pressure of holding reduction on the rising market is limited, but the reporter of 21st century economic report has noticed that with the rise of holding reduction, the market has been controversial about the current gem valuation.

Since April, the gem valuation has continued to rise, as of the evening of July 14, the gem index dynamic P / E ratio reached 78.78 times. Since this year, the gem index has risen 58.98%.

Among them, the performance of science and technology and pharmaceutical sectors was particularly amazing. The stock prices of many stocks doubled this year. For example, Zhaoyi innovation, which was reduced by large funds, has increased by 97.65% since this year. Ningde times, which was detonated by Tesla, has increased by 103.26% this year, and Mindray medical, which has been reduced by important shareholders, has increased by 80.46%.

However, in Li Lifeng's view, the current gem valuation is still in a reasonable range for the domestic broad money supply (M2) of 11.1% this year, "the future depends on the changes in the earnings of gem constituent stocks and subsequent market liquidity changes. If the follow-up economic recovery, and inflation rise, gem valuation faces the risk of falling. "

Fang Lei also pointed out that overall, the gem valuation is still in a relatively reasonable position. "The recent gem index valuation has risen significantly, mainly due to the large increase of some weighted stocks, which drives the index valuation up, but most of the gem stock valuations are still in a relatively reasonable position."

As for the short-term decline of a shares on July 14, Li Lifeng believes that it is more a normal take after the early accumulation of rich profit.

"The trigger points are mainly due to three factors: the correction of US stocks; the large scale of the lifting of the A-share ban, and the actual scale of reducing holdings is also increasing along with the rise of the index center, which has restrained the space for the index to rise too fast; and the CBRC has repeatedly stressed the strict control of leverage funds recently. As for the aftermarket of a shares, the environment of "weak economic stabilization + monetary easing" has not changed. We maintain the view that the A-share market has changed from "fast bull" to "slow bull" and the structural opportunity of A-share remains unchanged. " Li Lifeng said.

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