Future Price Differences Increase, Followed By The Off-Season

Recently, the decline of yarn market price has slowed down, the market mentality is still cautious and bearish, the sales are light, the main reason is that the situation of the epidemic situation is severe, the external order has no progress, the actual demand is small, and the cotton mill will not change its production. As of July 16, the average price of domestic c32s was 18597 yuan / ton, which continued to drop by 5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

In terms of cotton raw materials, as of July 16, cc3128b cotton index closed at 12163 yuan / ton, up 87 yuan / ton compared with last week. Since July, the price of cotton in Xinjiang has been increased by 100%. However, if we analyze carefully, there are fewer and fewer textile enterprises in the transaction enterprises, while the team of cotton traders is growing. With the helpless withdrawal of cotton enterprises, the short-term output of reserve cotton turns has become a "monologue" of traders. However, with the fall of Zhengqi period and the continuous increase of reserved cotton round output, traders will eventually have the opportunity of "unable to eat and digest", and the textile enterprises will have the opportunity to replenish the warehouse Gradually. On the other hand, at present, the phenomenon of debt delivery, credit, and 1-3-month account period is relatively common. Compared with the "real gold and silver" required for receiving warehouse orders and bidding for reserved cotton, purchasing Xinjiang cotton spot can even "pay after selling cotton yarn"; in order to promote the transaction, some cotton enterprises can provide services such as railway transportation, boarding, freight payment for mainland textile enterprises and purchasers. Of course, the purchase of some "quality and low price" cotton in the Yellow River Basin is also a good choice.

In terms of cotton yarn sales, although the cotton yarn futures price rose a lot following the cotton price, as of today's cotton yarn September main contract closed at 19305 yuan / ton, but the cash market cy However, the sales of pure cotton yarn at the end of last month is still weak, and the sales of cotton yarn are still weak compared with the end of last month. However, the sales of cotton yarn of c32s are still weak compared with the end of last month. In the face of the high cotton price rise and the downstream cotton yarn price can not keep up with the increase and the sales are slowing down, most cotton mills, especially small cotton mills, feel pressure. Some factories have taken measures to reduce lint inventory, limit production and control production capacity to ensure the normal operation of enterprises.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the grey cloth market went deep again after entering the off-season in May. As of July 16, CG C32 of all cotton grey cloth reported a revenue of 4.5 yuan / m. Under the shortage of orders, some weaving factories have to reduce the price or increase the preferential power to ship goods along the price, and the grey fabric price is stable and weak. Since April, the stock of weaving factories has been accumulating rapidly. Up to now, it has reached a high level of about 33 days. Especially after the end of the order of mask cloth in June, the production and sales of other grey fabrics are relatively low, and some of them have been above the level of January. In this case, the weaving mill has to take a series of measures, such as reducing the start-up, holidays, changing production and so on. From the demand side, the cotton market in July is in the traditional off-season market, and the market demand is basically difficult to improve. From the current order receiving situation, it is better to maintain the level of about half a month, so the demand in the middle and late July is difficult to guarantee. In this case, combined with the traditional practice, the demand in late August is expected to usher in the peak season demand inflection point, of course, considering the uncertainty of the epidemic situation In addition, the textile factory inventory is relatively high, and the early stage is still dominated by consumption of inventory.

From the perspective of the future market, the future market will not be greatly improved in the near future. The internal environment is the overall consumption degradation, and the traditional off-season in July and August comes as scheduled. The external environment is more dangerous. With the second outbreak of the global epidemic, the trump government's confrontation with China is becoming more and more intense. In addition, some domestic enterprises are paying close attention to the layout in Southeast Asia. Where should domestic textile enterprises go?